Today’s news that President Bush will be campaigning on behalf of Jerry Kilgore after all, at a Monday night event, is a pretty serious reversal of strategy for the Kilgore campaign.
The Kilgore campaign pointedly snubbed Bush just a week ago, a week and a half after Karl Rove was yanked from a Kilgore fundraiser. Every analyst under the sun agrees that Kilgore’s biggest liability is the popularity of Washington Republicans, which is dropping through the bottom of the double digits pretty quickly. He hasn’t been able to run from Bush fast enough.
Clearly, this is a huge gamble for Kilgore. President Bush’s approval ratings are down around 35% right now, and they’ve dropped every week for many months. Last week was the worst week ever for him — nearly everything that could have gone wrong for him did. It’s totally understandable that Kilgore would want to distance himself from Bush — the man is electoral poison. Some Republican seem to agree, though they’re obviously not eager to come right out and say it — both Chad Dotson and Norman Leahy appear to be, at best, unenthusiastic at this development.
So why the change in strategy?
I think this graph, produced by the Kaine campaign, says it all:
The Kilgore campaign can’t tell, anymore than the Kaine campaign, whether this trend has capped, whether it will reverse itself, or whether it will actually mean anything at the ballot box. Clearly they’re concerned enough about it to second-guess the conventional wisdom of this race and take a gamble on President Bush.
Will it work? I don’t think so, though my judgment is clouded by my obvious desire that it not work. Bush will rally the Bush faithful, but such creatures are in short supply these days, even in Virginia. This event may well remind centrists and old-school Republicans that Kilgore is, in many ways, a Bush Republican, and drive them to vote for Kaine, Potts, or prevent simply suppress their vote.
Whatever the result, no tea leaf reading is necessary to understand that the Kilgore campaign is desperate. And who can blame them? This, however, may not be the best solution to their woes.
After McCain bailed on Kilgore earlier this week, it’s all desperation.
I suspect Kilgore is desperate to fire up his base. It’s all he’s got. He doesn’t appeal to anyone else. Don’t forget that although Bush isn’t popular nationwide, he still probably has a pretty decent base in Virginia (although that’s just conjecture b/c I haven’t seen the numbers for this state alone). What Kilgore wants is a picture of him and Bush on the front page of the Richmond Times Dispatch on Tuesday morning and I suspect the RTD will be only too happy to comply. Anyway, despite their tricks, Kaine’s gonna win. The four percent polling for Potts right now aren’t going to break for Kilgore. If they could stomach the thought of voting for him they would never have gone with Potts in the first place. They are either gonna stay home or vote against their nemesis. This is going to put Kaine over the edge. Kaine will win. Russ Potts will be drummed out of his seat by his own party at the next senate election and given a nice plum appointment within the Kaine administration. And all will be well. :-)
Don’t forget that although Bush isn’t popular nationwide, he still probably has a pretty decent base in Virginia (although that’s just conjecture b/c I haven’t seen the numbers for this state alone).
SurveyUSA, poll taken 10/14-10/16 (meaning it’s dropped at least a few points since), places him at 41% approval overall, 75% among Republicans. 24% of Republicans disapprove of the job that President Bush is doing. 61% of independents disapprove of Bush’s job. 68% of moderates disapprove, as do 31% of conservatives.
If the Bush appearance serves to fire up that 75% of Republicans, then it will work. But if it fires up more independents and Democrats to show and support anybody-but-Kilgore, that’s trouble. That’s the gamble.
Waldo, I agree that either way Kilgore is in a tough spot. Damned if he uses him. Damned if he doesn’t. It’s the perfect storm. :0D
People are also missing a very important thing. Although Virginia tilts far more to the right, the percentage of people identifying themselves as Republican isn’t at that much higher than those who consider themselves Democrats in Virginia. Further, if you believe some polls the percentages may be equalizing after the Bush years. According to the CNN 2004 exit polling, Virginia was 39% Republican, 35% Democrat, and 26% Independent. Now add to the fact that Bush’s popularity was at 55% compared to 41% now, and the fact that fewer people are identifying themselves as Republica(See story: “Kilgore sees GOP woes erode lead for governor” – Washington Times 2nd page for party ID section)
Now Virginia is no Floridia when it comes to politics. We pretty much know which way its going. However, the states do now appear to have one thing in common, the independents decide the election. In Virginia there is a healthy amount of Independents who are inclined to vote slightly more Republican than Democrat, but when they switch sides it can decide the election (hence the election of Warner and Wilder).
I would hate to get my hopes sky high before this close election but the fact that the polls are showing that Independents are breaking decisively in Kaines favor, that less people are identifying themselves as Republican, and that Democrats appear to be more loyal to their party than Republicans in this election, I would have to say I’m feeling very optimistic about Kaine’s election prospects.