Eleven days ago, Rove was yanked from the Jerry Kilgore/Karl Rove fundraiser. Yesterday, Michael Shear and Robert Barnes wrote in the Post that Kilgore is bailing on President Bush. The president is due to give a “major policy speech” in Norfolk on Friday, and Kilgore has decided not to show up. (President Bush has repeatedly given “major policy speeches,” and they’re all identical “stay the course in Iraq” speeches, which infuriates the press that’s duped into covering it.)
Kilgore says, of course, that he’s really just too busy to appear with the president but that, of course, is a cover. The truth is that it appears to be Fitzmas Day — indictments are due against top White House officials any hour now, along with the announcement that the investigation into Plamegate will be expanded and efforts redoubled. It’s likely that Bush’s speech will turn into his “I am not a crook” speech. Kilgore would be crazy to want to be associated with such an event.
Studies have made clear (I’m thinking of Thomas Carsey’s “Campaign Dynamics” in specific) that Virginia voters blame gubernatorial candidates for the sins of the same-party president, and cast their ballot accordingly. Kilgore’s campaign team surely knows this, and so they’re doing all they can to disassociate Kilgore with President Bush and to claim the mantle of Democratic governor Mark Warner. It’s all they can do, of course — Bush is a sinking ship, and he may well take the Republican mantle of leadership down with him.
In most races, a candidate for governor would be thrilled to have the same-party president visiting the state. He’d be introducing the president, taking advantage of the photo opportunities, and claiming credit for some of the president’s proposals. But not this race, not this year. Kilgore’s odds of winning aren’t good enough to take the risk. Smart move.
The whole ‘Virginia always elects a candidate from the opposite party of that which controls the WH’ thing is total BS as a predictive model. It’s too small a sample size in terms of modern elections to look at. ‘Rules’ like this never have enough of a pattern to really justify and are always far, far too simplistic.
That said, I would put my money on Tim Kaine at this point. I predict that Kaine, Bolling and Deeds will be the new administration. But there ain’t any ‘rules’ except my own flawed, human observation of the race that lead me to this conclusion.
The whole ‘Virginia always elects a candidate from the opposite party of that which controls the WH’ thing is total BS as a predictive model. It’s too small a sample size in terms of modern elections to look at. ‘Rules’ like this never have enough of a pattern to really justify and are always far, far too simplistic.
You’re confusing two different models. There’s the one you describe, which is wholly different than the one that I’m talking about. Carsey explains why Virginia voters tie the successes or failures of the president to the same-party governor and gubernatorial candidates. He is not saying that Virginia always elects opposite-party governors. He’s simply saying that, fairly or unfairly, same-party candidates are tied to the president. Sometimes that works to the benefit of candidates, sometimes it works to their detriment.
While it’s possible that Kaine would win, I have a really hard time seeing Deeds winning. McDonnell has an 8 point lead and just released a killer ad.
Hans,
Can you point me to that poll that shows an 8 point lead for McDonnell? I haven’t seen any polling for the AG race in ages and would love to have a look at it.
poll
Thanks Waldo.
Re “Simple Sambo” link: That’s the way the Kos kids are. RK’ers are close…
That’s the way the Kos kids are.
Just like extremists of all stripes. It’s no different than Little Green Footballs or Free Republic. It’s a scary ideology, particularly because it’s rooted in ignorance.
Of course, I would hardly call LGF extremist. I am not familiar with Free Republic.
Believe me, it’s as far out there as Daily Kos. Free Republic is, I think, a little wackier than either of those two.
I don’t. =) But then I would probably fall into your extremist category as well…
Kaine — w/an assist from Fitzgerald, Katrina, deLay, Rove, Cheney, Scooter and Dubya
Byrne — Because women are so sick of the testosterone overload permeating National and Kaine/Kilgore race….
Deeds — Decent guy, with unexpected NRA and some reporter who will bust open McDonnell and VA REBUBLICAN MONEYGATE….
SoccerMom nails it perfectly!