For the AP, Charles Babbington writes about the Fifth District race
The bumps that Hurt and Perriello are finding on the campaign trail reflect nationwide discontent and suspicion among voters. The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 68 percent of voters lack confidence in Democratic lawmakers, and 72 percent lack confidence in Republican lawmakers.
Only 26 percent of registered voters said they were likely to vote for their current House representative. Among those most likely to vote, 56 percent said they would prefer a GOP takeover of the House.
So we’ve got a pair of polls within the MoE that show that 70% of voters don’t trust lawmakers. We’ve got a deeply implausible poll that shows that 74% of registered voters are going to replace the incumbent. (Consider, for a moment, the odds of 322 seats turning over this November.) And we’ve got people expressing a desire about something that they have basically no input into, which is how people will vote in the rest of the nation, rather than what party they’d prefer to represent them.
Translation: Don’t nobody know nothin’. Pollsters, politicians, or voters, apparently.
Of course, I am a partisan, so I always think my guy is going to win. :)
I think the ingredients we have seen so far (tea partiers, 3rd candidates, etc.) will make for an interesting race, but they will also ensure a win for Tom Perriello.
You can already see the waning influence of the tea party, and the lack of interest by them now that there is a Republican candidate. Jeff Clark will never be a credible candidate, but will take 3-5% of the vote, thereby swinging the race away from Robert Hurt.
Hurt’s endorsements by Palin and Goode are baggage that he may not be able to afford. Palin sticks her foot in her mouth every other day, and Virgil now writes for the horrendous David Horowitz on Front Page Magazine, his latest being on “anchor babies”.
Goode’s time has passed, and Palin is a train wreck.
I call Tom Perriello going away in this horse race.
I call Tom Perriello going away in this horse race.
Wow. Seriously?
2010 is the worst election climate for Democrats since, ummm, 2009, which was a nightmare for them. Actually, this year is shaping up to be worse. Despite Pelosi’s attempts to protect Perriello from the party, he’s in a district that he won by a recount margin on Obama’s coattails.
Perriello’s only prayer is for Hurt to have a macaca moment. If that doesn’t happen, Bob Hurt wins by double digits.
Since Hurt is barely known up here it a bit early to call this race for anyone. That said you would have to favor Perriello just on money on hand alone. It would be helpful to see metrics of where Perriello was at this point 2 years ago.
Hurt may be behind but it’s still early and that gap can be closed quickly if he gets the money.
This is a race (in the 5th) that Hurt should have won in a walk. Terrible year for Democrats, some spotty votes from the Democratic incumbant, a Republican leaning district, etc.
But it’s not. Hurt got hurt (pardon) in the primary, and has yet to rally the base, so to speak. Perriello is an awesome candidate, has a ton of money, and is working his butt off (which would appear to be the only exercise he’s done in 2 years… ZING!) and isn’t going down without a fight.
People who take polls like this always seem to think Congress is terrible. But not their guy or gal. They’re okay, it’s just everybody else’s guy or gal who should be voted out.
Perlogik is correct that it’s still to early to call this race. In my estimation, it’s either gonna be a Hurt blowout or a Perriello squeaker.
I can’t wait for things to start heating up!!! :-)
What is the status of the FBI investigation into the gas line that was cut at Tom’s brother’s house after that southside teabagger boss incited folks to drop by Tom’s place and tell him how they felt about his service?
Actually Pub, Tom outperformed Obama in the district. The coattail thing is a Republican myth, and for that, we say thank you.
Your whole comment sounds like a bitter commercial for what’s wrong with the Republican Party. Making Nancy Pelosi a stalking horse for everything you don’t like is not only lazy, but the complaints most times are untrue.
How about telling us all about all the Republican accomplishments in this Congress? What’s that you say? Your party has not voted for a single program and have filibustered everything? Sounds like classic Republican obstructionism to me.
Relax, bud. Go outside, smell some fresh air, and enjoy the summer. This anti-Obama election climate must really be eating at you.
Anyone who would deny that Tom won because 2008 was a VERY favorable year for Democrats is a fool. He squeaked by due to huge Obama voter turnout. How have elections gone for Democrats since Nov 08? Yeah, that’s what I thought.
Instead of wringing your hands about Republicans in Congress, how about you focus on the party that controls the executive and legislative branches, but still can’t help but step on its pecker almost daily.
Pelosi has protected Tom by allowing him to vote against the party on a few things, because she knows he’s vulnerable. That’s another fact that only a fool or a political neophyte would deny.
Bottom line is that Republicans CAN’T obstruct anything. Obama/Reid/Pelosi can pass whatever they want to pass. And the problem for Tom this year is that a majority of 5th District voters don’t like what they see. It’s just too bad that comments will be turned off on this by the time Tom loses by 10 points.
How have elections gone for Democrats since Nov 08? Yeah, that’s what I thought.
Other than NY-20, NY-23, PA-12, IL-5, CA-32, CA-10, FL-19, and OH-11?
Up by 23 points is behind?
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2010/07/poll_shows_rep_perriello_trail.html
Yeah, just like it was for Goode in 2008, when he was “up 30 points” in the SUSA poll. You was lecturing us with your giant brain then too.