A Fluvanna woman will become the second challenger to Rep. Tom Perriello, Michael Sluss writes in today’s Roanoke Times. Feda Kidd Morton spent 1995-2005 as the chair of the Fluvanna Republicans, recently concluded a stint on the school board, and is a biology teacher at the high school. (She’s third from the left in this photo.) Morton hasn’t actually filed to run, but intends to. The fact that we’re seeing small fry like Morton and Bradley Rees run is a strong indicator that there’s going to be a lot of Republicans vying for the nomination.
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If Robert Hurt wants the nomination, Robert Hurt will get the nomination.
Perriello vs. Morton = Big Perriello win.
Perriello vs. Rees = Obliterating Perriello win.
Perriello vs. Hurt = Toss-Up!
When we see somebody with some weight get into this—like Bob Hurt—then I think it’ll be interesting to see the dynamics in this district. If the extremists (we’ve got plenty of them in Albemarle) back a lightweight candidate, it’ll be interesting to see if they can get enough traction to make trouble for the establishment candidate. Think back on Rep. Davis giving up on the U.S. Senate nomination after the RPV decided to hold a caucus, making a Gilmore win clear. And then an even more lightweight candidate almost knocked off Gilmore—Bob Marshall—leaving Gilmore with the nomination by the skin of his teeth.
It’s not clear to me that there are enough of these far-right folks in the 5CD for scenarios like these to play out, but I think it’s worth considering.
I don’t think we will see Robert running for this seat. I can’t imaging him wanting to uproot the little ones and moving them to Washington. Or I can’t picture him leaving them back here for Washington. Richmond is one thing But Washington DC is another.
If the Republican party plays the game correctly and the Democrats play poorly, the Republicans can win the 5th District without Charlottesville.
Meredith Richards, Al Weed & Al Weed were the darlings of Charlottesville but only got 40% of the overall vote.
Though remember that Albemarle County’s population has grown and moved farther to the left over that timeframe, too. I’m not saying the district is unwinnable for Republicans without Charlottesville, just that it’d be much of an uphill battle now than in 2002.