Perriello/Goode debate, poll.

Rep. Virgil Goode and Tom Perriello debated last night, at the Senior Statesman of Virginia’s standard biennial House candidate forum. Campaign advisor Lloyd Snook thinks Perriello came out on top, and prominent local writer and noted Quaker Helena Cobban basically agrees, but with significant reservations. Coincidentally, SUSA released a poll in the race today (which is unusual; this district doesn’t generally warrant polling), finding Goode up 64% over Perriello’s 30%. The campaign says it shows that “this race is wide open, and Lloyd figures the gap will start closing as the campaign heats up in the next two and a half months.

Published by Waldo Jaquith

Waldo Jaquith (JAKE-with) is an open government technologist who lives near Char­lottes­­ville, VA, USA. more »

9 replies on “Perriello/Goode debate, poll.”

  1. If you look at the results of this SUSA poll, you will find that something like 35% of African-Americans and 69% of Independents go for Virgil supposedly.

    The weight on this is all screwed up. I would believe a DCCC sponsored poll before I would believe this. Since he does have their endorsement, it is likely they are going to poll as well.

    WDBJ has had dubious results, namely in their polling of the Weed/Goode race around this time that year (2006). That poll, as this one might, helped the perception that there was no way to unseat Goode.

    Lloyd says: (and I tend to agree)

    Looking at the poll results, the first thing that is striking is that it shows Virgil Goode getting 35% of the African-American vote. There is no way that Virgil Goode will get 35% of the African-American vote in November. That is a function of name recognition. The second thing that is striking is that African-Americans, women and young people are all underrepresented, by 3% to 5%. The third thing that I note is that it is hard to believe that there are only 5% undecided in this race. All of these are typical of the problems of robocall surveys.

    For what it’s worth, I think it is closer to 55-45 myself.

  2. Jack,

    I prefer to think of it as rearranging the chairs on the Titanic, but only for a limited time. It will get better.

    I think this race is poised for a tightening of the polls and the race in general. More people will find out who Tom is, etc.

    (That was the obligatory Democratic ‘feel-good’ talking point) ;)

  3. I really feel that Tom Perriello is going to win. He is working hard to get the good news out about who he is and what he is going to do for the 5th district. HE IS GOING TO WORK A DOUBLE SHIFT FOR US IN CONGRESS. Virgil’s grades (according to the sources) is a D-…. I think we can see this because of the businesses closing down and the amount of unemployment in the 5th district.

    VIRGIL GOODE HAS TO GO. I’m a Republican, and I want him to GO, so Virgil don’t blame it on the Democrats…

    Anyways, weren’t you a Democrat first, VIRGIL?? He switched to Republican to win the votes…otherwise, he’d still be a Dem.

    GOOD LUCK TOM PERRIELLO!!

    WE NEED YOU!!

  4. Fairy Stone Fairy,

    I might really feel that dollar bills are going to suddenly rain out of the sky tomorrow and the water fountains of Charlottesville will all run with champagne. But the way that I feel about something has absolutely no bearing on reality. Sort of like you exclaiming that Tom is going to win because you ‘feel’ that he’s going to. Offer facts and logical arguments based on observations of reality, please.

    Virgil’s grades? What are you talking about? What grades? What ‘sources’? Every special interest group comes out with ratings for Congressmen. The only people who pay attention to those grades are members of that special interest group. I support the Sierra Club, but I’m pretty darn sure that Sierra Club members comprise less than 1% of the 5th District population. These special interest report cards are meaningless unless they are from groups that comprise a key part of his previous majority.

    Unemployment in most of the 5th has been horrible for the last decade. This is nothing new. If a majority of the voters were going to hold Virgil Goode accountable for that then he would have been gone a long time ago.

    Somehow, I’m sure there is a way of getting Virgil Goode out of office. And whatever way that is, it will certainly require a rational analysis of Goode’s strengths and weaknesses rather than just sticking your fingers in your ears and shouting out the same tired rhetoric against him that I’ve heard (and admittedly once participated in) for the last 4 cycles.

    Waldo has it right about this district. Virgil is essentially the incumbent mayor of the 5th District. He’s a mascot, not a Representative. Tom and every other candidate we’ve run has made the understandable mistake of running for the wrong damn office.

  5. Mr. Jackson Landers,

    I appreciate your comment. I have to tell you, I don’t have my fingers in my ears & shouting.

    Let’s just touch on ONE of the subjects brought up in the debeate between PERRIELLO and Goode. The health care situation. Virgil’s plan was to ’round up all the illegals’ and that would take care of some of them. Yea, GREAT PLAN Virgil!! You asked for a weakness, his whole appearance was weak. Tom blew him out of the water. I’m not saying Tom has all the answers, but Virgil even doubted the stats about the 45 million w/o health care.

    Tom hit it on the nose. According to the National Coalition on Health Care (WWW.NCHC.ORG) in 2005 nearly 47 million, or 16% were w/o health care. The number rose 2.2 million between 2005 & 2006. Nearly 1.3 million full time workers lost their health insurance in 2006. Nearly 90 MILLION people, about 1/3 the population below 65 spent a portion of either 2006 or 2007 without health insurance.

    And what did Virgil say? What was his solution, the man that has been in office for the last 6 terms? Round up the immigrants… Now on that alone, he should resign from office. It proves that he takes a problem and just does what he wants.

    Tom will tear up DC for us. He cares about the children that don’t have insurance, as well as the other Americans without it, also.

    I know I sounded like a cheerleader, but I am. If you meet him and hear him talk, you will see that he CARES! Trust me, this Perriello guy could go anywhere with a YALE degree. Instead, he wants to come back and help us.

    That alone, should get your vote!! LOL

    Thank you for admitting you have shouted against Virgil. I don’t feel so bad, now. But Virgil CAN BE REMOVED! But it takes YOU and it takes ME to help get Tom in office!!

    No one thought the Berlin wall would come down either, but it did.

    So, let’s get off our butts and get this ‘MASCOT’ out of office!!

    When health care comes up with Tom in office, at least we won’t hear, “round up the illegals.” He has the brains, energy and soul to work on it until something is done.

    If you think of a way to get him out of office, let me know. I’m on it, buddy…LOL

    One way is to tell the Republicans that vote for him that he was a DEMOCRAT first and turned Republican to win the office he holds now. They are being used.

    Love your energy Jackson, keep it up!!

    Peace

  6. Fairy-

    Claiming that Virgil is doing a crappy job because of the loss of jobs is pretty shortsighted and is really just nonsense. Does that mean that all Charlottesvillians want Goode to remain because he’s helped create jobs (as a proponent of the NGIC)? What about those new jobs at Swedewood and Goodyear in Danville. Citing jobs as a Goode problem is a red herring. A fair number of his constituents live in areas that have better employment numbers than the state average. I wonder how Perrielo will address the jobs issue.

    Funny thing about that Berlin wall.. were you a Reagan fan?

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