Supplementing the new Mason-Dixon, which shows Kaine 1% ahead, we also have today’s Rasmussen, which shows Kaine 3% ahead. They had Kaine at 2% ahead last week. With a ±3% MoE, they’re still statistically tied. But, again, this is a part of a trend described by all of the recent polls, so it’s likely that Kaine is, in fact, ahead by a few points. Note that this poll includes “leaners,” meaning that the respondent said “I don’t know who I’m going to vote for,” and the questioner said “but if you had to pick now, who would you vote for,” and then they named someone. Sans leaners — which is really a better measure — Kaine is up 1%.
Here’s a graph of the Rasmussen trend line.
Click to embiggen.
Most telling is Kaine’s dominance, well outside the margin of error, amongst independants and moderates. This means that Kilgore’s pitch to be Virginia’s Governor has failed. The only thing he can do now is hope that the extremists vote in enough numbers to overcome the less-likely-to-vote centrists and liberals.
There are a lot of middle class Repubs. here in VaBeach who say that they are voting for Kaine– mostly because of the Kilgore negative ads. (well, at least today they said this)
But I suspect that if they vote for Kaine, they will feel guilty and not vote for Byrne and Deeds.
All of this is making my head ache and b.p. rise.
Arrrrrggg….4 more days……GOTV calls galore to go…
We will see you in Williamsburg in January!
Rasmussen has been incredibly accurate in the past. Really the only poll I trust. I think it will be tighter than 3%, but Kilgore’s vaunted GOTV is going to have to be unbelieveably effective and combined with a total lack of effort from the VA Dems in order to save Kilgore now.
I love the word embiggen…hehe
It’s a perfectly cromulent word.
Dems are more activated and excited than I’ve ever seen for an election. We loved Warner, we worked for him like crazy. This is something different, it’s like the perfect storm of Democratic passion. It’s the combination of the REALIZATION of Warner’s Promise, Kaine’s inherent decency, Kilgores’ obvious incompetence, and the repubnant failure of the reactionary Bush culture of corruption.
I don’t know about the Kilgore GOTV, but VA Dems are on fire! T-minus 4days and counting.