The last Mason-Dixon poll showed Republican Jerry Kilgore up 2% in the governor’s race. Today’s results show Democratic Lt. Governor Tim Kaine up 1%. (Both within the 4% MoE, of course.) But I’ll believe that Kaine’s up — that’s the trend of all polls being conducted right now. The bit of internal evidence for a Kaine leg up is that independents are breaking for Kaine.
What’s not going to help Kilgore at all is that Republicans are feeling pretty cowed right now — their national leadership is crumbling under indictments, lawsuits, and investigations. The nation overwhelmingly sees the Bush presidency and the Republican leadership of Congress as a failure. This does not serve Kilgore well — hence the distance between him and President Bush.
Since the polls agree that Kaine is up a point or two, I suspect that’s so. But we’ve got a few days left until the election, and things can change, so it’s now up to each campaign’s get-out-the-vote efforts. I know that a good chunk of this site’s readers are doing ground work for Democrats running across the state. The ball’s in your court, kids. Good luck.
McCain bailed on Kilgore last week too. Too bad for Jerry Dubya.
i hear you waldo, i hope so. after last year, i just keep “hoping for the best, and expecting the worse”
i feel that kaine will win, but will not be surprised if Kilgore pulls off.
Today, Rasumussen has the race slightly more favorable to Kaine at Kaine 49% Kilgore 46%.
Actually, even if Kaine loses, the fact that he’s played this close to Kilgore is a sign of some kind of shift in state politics. Kaine is left of the Virginia center, and is still holding on to a lead or break-even position. That’s truly amazing, and it goes against conventional wisdom.
I’m sure that if he wins, the Right will Wednesday-morning quarterback about a bad candidate, yada yada, but in actuality, there are demographic and ideological shifts afoot in the Commonwealth that favor the Dems, if they can get it together.
— Conaway