Creigh Deeds found another 100 votes. He’s just 410 votes from McDonnell.
Published by Waldo Jaquith
Waldo Jaquith (JAKE-with) is an open government technologist who lives near Charlottesville, VA, USA. more »
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18 replies on “Deeds: 410.”
Stretched out elections like this make my stomach hurt, but I like the way that one is moving.
Any idea on where the additional votes are coming from?
People following closer than I know the source of each of these changes — there have been some good comments in response to some of these updates from people who have noticed from where the changes have come.
Waldo, the margin Creigh is down is less than the margin he trailed Tim by in C’Ville. Why was he running behind Tim there?
Quite simply, because Tim got a lot of crossover votes from Republicans.
Also, some very small number of voters either choose not to vote for anyone but the governor, or are confused by the voting machines and don’t realize they can make multiple selections on the main screen. The machines tallied slightly smaller vote counts for all offices other than the governor’s in nearly every precinct, and apparently they always do.
I think the NRA endorsement may have hurt Deeds very slightly in Charlottesville, but surely it helped him way more in other areas than it hurt him here. Deeds name recognition never caught up to his opponent’s, and McDonnell was a far superior candidate to Kilgore, so Deeds had a tougher race. Mayor Wilder’s stated non-endorsement was the thing I thought would cost him the most. Obviously, looking at the totals that was huge, but despite this recipe for defeat, Deeds will win anyway. He will be a very difficult candidate to overcome at the top of the ticket in four years. Bolling will have little chance to beat Deeds in a state wide race. McDonnell would have been the best chance at taking back the Governor’s mansion. He will have to wait 8 years to have a turn. Virginia will be less friendly ground for Republicans with Northern Virginia being the blue state that tips the balance, and of course with President Warner steering the country in the right direction. LOL
Bob’s good record on service to the poor also helped him.
I had 3 or 4 people at my small precinct I was working in front of on election day asking me why Wilder did not endorse Deeds. His non-endorsement certainly gave some people pause.
re: Scott right on, almost a full percent of the 2 million voters who voted in the Gub race did not vote in the AG race. That’s 20,0000 voters statewide.
Good points both, Jeff and Corey. Charlottesville is home to a pretty strong core of die-hard, astute Democrats, some of whom believe that Creigh never should have won the nomination in the first place. (He was decidedly not the favorite of anybody in C’ville when we had our convention to nominate somebody to replace Emily Couric a few years ago.) I wouldn’t be surprised if the combination of all three of these factors had something to do with Creigh losing at least a few hundred votes here.
Failing to vote for Creigh against someone like McDonnell for reasons like the lack of a Wilder endorsement or because they supported his opponents(s?) in the post-Couric nomination is far from ‘astute.’ In fact, I’d say that failing to support the ticket fully is doing a real disservice to the Kaine administration and the state. Spend some time with people who work in the courts and the jails, and ask them about the difference in the impact of the two different men in the AG job.
It’s going to be a very bitter pill to swallow if Creigh loses by such a tiny margin, no matter what the reason. Over here in the rural part of Creigh’s district, where we don’t have very many votes to contribute, we’re looking hard at what we might have done differently to eke out another 50-75 Deeds votes. I really, really don’t want to think we got a right-wing fundamentalist in the job because of intra-party purism and resentment in Charlottesville, where there are so many extra votes to work with. Failing to support the ticket in that way is the very opposite of what it means to be a ‘die hard Democrat’.
“Astute” was the most polite term I could muster. :)
It seems that the 527 that funded McDonnell’s child-moleter attack ad will not have to disclose its donors until the end of the year (to the IRS, not the FEC), so it will be early January before we know. Dang; I was hoping the disclosure deadline might be the end of November, so that the donors would be news right along with the recount process. I’m assuming that the recount will be completed in December, though I suppose legal challenges could stretch it out into January, depending on what turns up in the counting.
Jennifer, in the interests of preparing myself for the possibility of McDonnell as AG, I’d like to hear more detail about McDonnell’s good record of service to the poor.
Thanks Nell, because I can’t find anything good to say about McDonnell either, and I really would like to have some reason to hope for a decent AG for the next four years.
At that convention to replace Emily Couric, I did not show up to support Creigh. In fact, I had never even heard of him until that day. However, I walked out of that building convinced that this guy was going places and that I was going to do everything I could to help him. When Creigh is ‘on,’ he’s a natural political talent of the kind that political strategists and campaign managers drool over. I’ve never known anyone else in my life who was so utterly at ease in retail politics.
I was just in Martinsville (heavy Dem town), this weekend and there was a whole 2.5% turn out differential in the Gov and AG races. I got a look at the precinct reports, and McDonnell got a bunch more votes than Kilgore received (probably about 2% more, so this tells me that the Rebpubs voted a straight and complete ticket, and it must of been our voters who didn’t cast ballots at all for the AG.
Why?
Because they didn’t know who Deeds was? Because GOTV didn’t make the connection?
And what other heavy Dem areas had such a bad drop off?
Jon-P, that’s exactly what I was getting at. I’ve looked into this some more since I posted that question…. and the Democrats may not be pleased with one of the reasons. The coordinated campaign would not even include Leslie or Creigh’s name on their phone calls they made all over the state. Their intensity to elect Tim may have left his ticket behind… and Bolling and McDonnell will be a major factor in his success because of that critical mistake.
Stretched out elections like this make my stomach hurt, but I like the way that one is moving.
Any idea on where the additional votes are coming from?
People following closer than I know the source of each of these changes — there have been some good comments in response to some of these updates from people who have noticed from where the changes have come.
Waldo, the margin Creigh is down is less than the margin he trailed Tim by in C’Ville. Why was he running behind Tim there?
Quite simply, because Tim got a lot of crossover votes from Republicans.
Also, some very small number of voters either choose not to vote for anyone but the governor, or are confused by the voting machines and don’t realize they can make multiple selections on the main screen. The machines tallied slightly smaller vote counts for all offices other than the governor’s in nearly every precinct, and apparently they always do.
I think the NRA endorsement may have hurt Deeds very slightly in Charlottesville, but surely it helped him way more in other areas than it hurt him here. Deeds name recognition never caught up to his opponent’s, and McDonnell was a far superior candidate to Kilgore, so Deeds had a tougher race. Mayor Wilder’s stated non-endorsement was the thing I thought would cost him the most. Obviously, looking at the totals that was huge, but despite this recipe for defeat, Deeds will win anyway. He will be a very difficult candidate to overcome at the top of the ticket in four years. Bolling will have little chance to beat Deeds in a state wide race. McDonnell would have been the best chance at taking back the Governor’s mansion. He will have to wait 8 years to have a turn. Virginia will be less friendly ground for Republicans with Northern Virginia being the blue state that tips the balance, and of course with President Warner steering the country in the right direction. LOL
Bob’s good record on service to the poor also helped him.
I had 3 or 4 people at my small precinct I was working in front of on election day asking me why Wilder did not endorse Deeds. His non-endorsement certainly gave some people pause.
re: Scott right on, almost a full percent of the 2 million voters who voted in the Gub race did not vote in the AG race. That’s 20,0000 voters statewide.
Good points both, Jeff and Corey. Charlottesville is home to a pretty strong core of die-hard, astute Democrats, some of whom believe that Creigh never should have won the nomination in the first place. (He was decidedly not the favorite of anybody in C’ville when we had our convention to nominate somebody to replace Emily Couric a few years ago.) I wouldn’t be surprised if the combination of all three of these factors had something to do with Creigh losing at least a few hundred votes here.
Failing to vote for Creigh against someone like McDonnell for reasons like the lack of a Wilder endorsement or because they supported his opponents(s?) in the post-Couric nomination is far from ‘astute.’ In fact, I’d say that failing to support the ticket fully is doing a real disservice to the Kaine administration and the state. Spend some time with people who work in the courts and the jails, and ask them about the difference in the impact of the two different men in the AG job.
It’s going to be a very bitter pill to swallow if Creigh loses by such a tiny margin, no matter what the reason. Over here in the rural part of Creigh’s district, where we don’t have very many votes to contribute, we’re looking hard at what we might have done differently to eke out another 50-75 Deeds votes. I really, really don’t want to think we got a right-wing fundamentalist in the job because of intra-party purism and resentment in Charlottesville, where there are so many extra votes to work with. Failing to support the ticket in that way is the very opposite of what it means to be a ‘die hard Democrat’.
“Astute” was the most polite term I could muster. :)
It seems that the 527 that funded McDonnell’s child-moleter attack ad will not have to disclose its donors until the end of the year (to the IRS, not the FEC), so it will be early January before we know. Dang; I was hoping the disclosure deadline might be the end of November, so that the donors would be news right along with the recount process. I’m assuming that the recount will be completed in December, though I suppose legal challenges could stretch it out into January, depending on what turns up in the counting.
Jennifer, in the interests of preparing myself for the possibility of McDonnell as AG, I’d like to hear more detail about McDonnell’s good record of service to the poor.
Thanks Nell, because I can’t find anything good to say about McDonnell either, and I really would like to have some reason to hope for a decent AG for the next four years.
At that convention to replace Emily Couric, I did not show up to support Creigh. In fact, I had never even heard of him until that day. However, I walked out of that building convinced that this guy was going places and that I was going to do everything I could to help him. When Creigh is ‘on,’ he’s a natural political talent of the kind that political strategists and campaign managers drool over. I’ve never known anyone else in my life who was so utterly at ease in retail politics.
I was just in Martinsville (heavy Dem town), this weekend and there was a whole 2.5% turn out differential in the Gov and AG races. I got a look at the precinct reports, and McDonnell got a bunch more votes than Kilgore received (probably about 2% more, so this tells me that the Rebpubs voted a straight and complete ticket, and it must of been our voters who didn’t cast ballots at all for the AG.
Why?
Because they didn’t know who Deeds was? Because GOTV didn’t make the connection?
And what other heavy Dem areas had such a bad drop off?
Jon-P, that’s exactly what I was getting at. I’ve looked into this some more since I posted that question…. and the Democrats may not be pleased with one of the reasons. The coordinated campaign would not even include Leslie or Creigh’s name on their phone calls they made all over the state. Their intensity to elect Tim may have left his ticket behind… and Bolling and McDonnell will be a major factor in his success because of that critical mistake.