From Bob Novak’s Sunday column:
Sen. George Allen of Virginia, the hottest early prospect for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, blundered on his visit to New Hampshire on May 3 by conducting two fund-raisers there.
GOP insiders in the nation’s earliest primary state did not want to criticize him publicly, but called Allen’s New Hampshire performance “odd.” That’s because presidential candidates are supposed to spend funds in the state, not take money out. Allen was raising money for his 2006 re-election campaign.
Sen. John McCain of Arizona, landslide winner of the last contested New Hampshire Republican presidential primary in 2000, would be an early favorite in the state if he runs. McCain, Sen. Bill Frist of Tennessee and Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska are getting the kind of advice from New Hampshire that Allen apparently lacked when he conducted his fund-raisers.
Sen. Allen’s main problem is that he is peaking so early. He would make a great candidate, but it will be hard for him to maintain this position for so long. In my opinion, Sen. Allen needs to build his reputation to be selected as the Vice Presidential nominee; if he won on that ticket, the White House would be very acheivable for him.
Sen. McCain may be the early frontrunner when the race starts, but I highly suspect that his opposition will be too great, particularly as “moderate” voters are less likely to vote in primaries. I also seriously doubt that he won’t be picked as a Vice President, though I could see him selected to a future cabinet.
Generally though, I believe that it is pointless to look at presidential candidates this early for either side, as so much can change over this extended period of time. While there is no doubt in my mind that those who intend to are starting to work on it (and probably should), speculation right now is about as accurate as palm reading.
Whoops, typo in the second paragraph. The last sentence is meant to read “I also seriously doubt that he would be picked…”.