Kilgore snubs Bush.
Eleven days ago, Rove was yanked from the Jerry Kilgore/Karl Rove fundraiser. Yesterday, Michael Shear and Robert Barnes wrote in the Post that Kilgore is bailing on President Bush. The president is due to give a “major policy speech” in Norfolk on Friday, and Kilgore has decided not to show up. (President Bush has repeatedly given “major policy speeches,” and they’re all identical “stay the course in Iraq” speeches, which infuriates the press that’s duped into covering it.)
Kilgore says, of course, that he’s really just too busy to appear with the president but that, of course, is a cover. The truth is that it appears to be Fitzmas Day — indictments are due against top White House officials any hour now, along with the announcement that the investigation into Plamegate will be expanded and efforts redoubled. It’s likely that Bush’s speech will turn into his “I am not a crook” speech. Kilgore would be crazy to want to be associated with such an event.
Studies have made clear (I’m thinking of Thomas Carsey’s “Campaign Dynamics” in specific) that Virginia voters blame gubernatorial candidates for the sins of the same-party president, and cast their ballot accordingly. Kilgore’s campaign team surely knows this, and so they’re doing all they can to disassociate Kilgore with President Bush and to claim the mantle of Democratic governor Mark Warner. It’s all they can do, of course — Bush is a sinking ship, and he may well take the Republican mantle of leadership down with him.
In most races, a candidate for governor would be thrilled to have the same-party president visiting the state. He’d be introducing the president, taking advantage of the photo opportunities, and claiming credit for some of the president’s proposals. But not this race, not this year. Kilgore’s odds of winning aren’t good enough to take the risk. Smart move.
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