It has often been pointed out that, for many elections now, Virginia elects a governor of the opposite party as the president. Here are the election results of the past half-century, including the newly-elected president, the governor who was elected, and the year of the gubernatorial election.
| President | Governor | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Eisenhower (R) | Almond (D) | 1957 |
| Kennedy (D) | Harrison (D) | 1961 |
| Johnson (D) | Godwin (D) | 1965 |
| Nixon (R) | Holton (R) | 1969 |
| Nixon (R) | Godwin (R) | 1973 |
| Carter (D) | Dalton (R) | 1977 |
| Reagan (R) | Robb (D) | 1981 |
| Reagan (R) | Baliles (D) | 1985 |
| Bush (R) | Wilder (D) | 1989 |
| Clinton (D) | Allen (R) | 1993 |
| Clinton (D) | Gilmore (R) | 1997 |
| Bush (R) | Warner (D) | 2001 |
| Bush (R) | Kaine (D) | 2005 |
We can see that the streak started with Democrat Mills Godwin, in Nixon’s second term.
This is interesting trivia, but that’s about it. I don’t doubt that there’s some relationship between a president’s popularity and his effect on candidates of the same party running for lower offices. (We’ve seen this with the shriveling of the Republican Party nationally in the last couple of years.) And I don’t doubt that affects Virginia gubernatorial races. But I have never seen any data that demonstrate a causative relationship. After all, if past was prologue here, why would anybody run against the candidate who shares a party with the president? This is sort of like the business of no president winning without winning Ohio. If merely winning Ohio caused a president to win nationally, then we’d see candidates ignoring the rest of the country. Ohio is just a totem.
Cite this effect, if you like (I do at times), but recognize that doing so is really a form of superstition more than anything else.
I understand your skepticism, however, I would argue that there is a fairly good reason for this voting pattern. Namely, Virginians of both parties are somewhat conservative. The word “conservative” is so bastardized, I guess many take this term to mean supply-sider or Christian right. However, I am talking about a healthy amount of respect for constitutionalism and federalism. I do believe that if there is any thread that does run through this state (rather than this fictitious red v. blue, nova v. rova phantom of politics created by the media) it is that most Virginians do not care to see power concentrated in one party of government. I think a number of Virginians voted for Warner and Kaine b/c they saw the error of one party GOP gov’t. I also think that this trickles down to the Presidential/Gubernatorial cycle you mention. There are a lot of Virginians who do believe that their vote for Governor can act as a “check” on the concentration of power in one party.
You list Godwin as a Democrat in 1973 when, in fact, he ran as a Republican.
I’d think more than 40 years would qualify as a trend. Of course the even longer trend of Republicans carrying the state at the presidential level was broken last year by an African-American Democrat from the Midwest. That’s seem less likely than a Democrat winning this year.
I like how it’s totally unnecessary to label George W. as a Republican.
Were you afraid of offending Republicans?
Thanks so much for that correction, jkell105—I’d completely forgotten that essential detail of Gov. Godwin’s career! I’ve updated his listing and my statement about when the streak began. And thank you, James, for pointing out that I forgot G.W. Bush’s affiliation. I was so caught up in verifying past governors’ affiliations that I totally forgot about our late, unlamented president.
Yes, but they didn’t have to run with Cuccinelli. I think that lunatic changes the dynamics for the race in ways that are unknowable. I think he adds at least 4-5 points for the Dems. He also saves them $$ b/c they don’t need to spend a lot of money beating him.