With Tom Davis bowing out of the U.S. Senate race, I have to wonder if Republicans will manage to avoid a bloody primary battle by having only Jim Gilmore as their candidate. Mark Warner’s victory seems inevitable, and Gilmore may be the only guy willing to tilt at that particular windmill.
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I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Gilmore didn’t run. He may be many things, but he’s not an (complete) idiot. For a man who obviously wants to continue his life in politics, this would be a career killer–and I’m not certain he’s foolish enough to make it his last stand.
There’s obviously some pride involved for him–Warner spent his first year or so “blaming the prior CEO.” But if he and his advisors can muster a shred of rationality, they’ll hold their cards for another day.
One telling point will be what happens over the next week or so–once Davis jumps out, there’s nothing really keeping Gilmore out of the race. If he insists on waiting until after the election (even with a lame excuse like “not wanting to distract from legislative races), he’s waffling and may bail on the race.
I could be wrong, but I don’t think he’s locked in just yet.
There’s something about a glorious death ride against a higher caliber opponent that attracts politicians like a moth to a flame.
And while the outcome of a race between Gilmore and M. Warner seems predetermined, it isn’t analogous to the Dems lining up to take on Virgil Goode in the 5th or the never-ending parade of GOP sacrificial lambs Ted Kennedy dispenses with in Massachusetts. Here, at least on paper, Gilmore’s electoral accomplishments are equal to Warner’s. There’ll be no “Attaboy, A for effort!” at the end of a Gilmore loss to Warner the way there will be for others who take one for the party in a hopeless contest. Clearly, he should sit this one out to “concentrate on his law practice and spend more time with his family.” But he won’t.
There’s another layer to this Judge and Carrington: people do get rewarded for throwing themselves on grenades. If Gilmore is willing to take this particular bullet for the team then at some point in the future he might be a candidate for an ambassadorship to somewhere pleasant or perhaps a cabinet seat. There is always a cozy place for someone who takes a bullet for the Republican Party. Ask Scooter Libby. Ask George Allen.
J.C.,
What you are describing is very real, but it usually applies to more junior politicians. Gilmore’s big problem is that he is seen as a sort of highly experienced failure. After leaving office as Governor, most people decided that he’d been a fiscal disaster. Then he was briefly chair of the RNC, which should have been a big feather in his cap until Bush had him fired because he didn’t like the job Gilmore had been doing.
Follow this up with the most pathetic attempt at running for President that I have ever seen. Dude made Denis Kuchinich look like a powerhouse.
Jim Gilmore cannot afford another failure. If he runs for Senate and loses then he will have such an awful stench of loser-ness that nobody will want to touch him with a 10 foot pole.
The time to throw yourself on a grenade like this and get rewarded is when you are on your way up and perhaps at loose ends. A talented state Senator looking to earn enough party chits to get the nomination for Governor or Lt. Governor in a few years. A businessman or highly decorated veteran looking to break into state level politics in a big way without getting squashed by more experienced party players before anyone’s ever heard of him. Those are the kinds of people who can benefit from throwing themselves on the grenade (excellent metaphor, by the way). Not a former Governor and former chair of the RNC.
If Jim Gilmore wants to continue to have a career in politics then he should sit this race out. Start a PAC. Spend the next few years looking for any reason he can to show up at local GOP committee meetings and fund raisers. Become a blogger. Do everything possible to become an icon among dissatisfied Virginia conservatives longing for the days before the Democrats started taking over everything in VA. Then depending on how Jim Webb is polling in 5 years, he could see about challenging him for that seat. Or run for Governor again.
Jack–
You are spot-on. Nice analysis.
Calling Alan Keyes!
J.S., you’re right that Gilmore — or whomever — deserves credit for taking on Warner. Every candidate should be opposed every time, and it’s especially admirable when somebody’s willing to run when they know they’ll lose. I know I’m not a good enough person to do that, but I’m glad to know that there are people willing to step up to the plate.
“it’s especially admirable when somebody’s willing to run when they know they’ll lose.”
Admirable or absolutely bat-sh*t crazy!
Being in the center of a political campaign is about the hardiest thing I have ever encountered, not to mention the stress on one’s finances and family life.
But as far as Jack’s analysis it is spot on, though if he follows the path Jack describes he is going to run head long into Allen’s “rebirth” . . . Which one would win that match?
Allen’s not done yet. He suffered a humiliating loss that but for the utterance of one word, Macaca, most people understand would never have occurred. He’ll be back. I assume he realizes 2008 is not (right now) the best time to take on M. Warner. I concur.
Judge–
I believe Allen will take on McDonnell for the gubernatorial nomination. Bolling will backdown (highlighting the critical error in judgment not running for the 1st House seat, which he could have won) but McDonnell will go toe to toe with Allen and probably beat him. In the process, he’ll do all the dems’ dirty work for them–rehashing his macacca/bully/faux good old boy persona before the dems have to raise a finger.
If Democrats want to beat the winner of the McDonnell/Allen contest, they need to convince Creigh or Brian to step back immediately so that one can focus on raising money while the R’s tear each other apart…I understand that process has already started. I think that choice is pretty clear.
Gilmore has no place in that gubernatorial fight. He really doesn’t have anyplace anywhere–but if he’s hell bent on running for office again (other than dog catcher), I’d advise him to wait for the Webb seat.
Carrington,
You mean Brian Moran stepping back in support of Criegh? I am entirely in agreement. With Mark Warner in the Senate and Tim Kaine constrained by the single term limit, Creigh Deeds is hands down the strongest candidate on our bench. Brian Moran cannot get the votes outside of NoVA needed to win state-wide office.
Anybody who comes within about 300 votes of winning state-wide office is clearly ready for prime time. Creigh fits the mold that’s been working for us. A true moderate without any real vulnerabilities. He can campaign anywhere in Virginia and fit in easily. Whereas Brian Moran is a creature that is well equipped to win elections in Northern Virginia (he could grab a Congressional seat up there one day) but would go down like a lead balloon everywhere else. The Massachusetts accent alone dooms him.
As far as the futures of Allen and Gilmore are concerned, I don’t think that Gilmore would take on Allen in a gubernatorial primary. But it’s not a foregone conclusion that Allen really will end up trying to mount a comeback. He’s obviously toying with the idea. But I could very easily imagine a situation where 2009 rolls around and Allen finds that he just doesn’t have the heavy-hitters behind him to make a race out of it. Big donors and local party chairs might easily say that there’s just too much negative stuff in Allen’s past and that he’s a great guy but they just don’t want to take the chance on a candidate who is so very easy to attack on personal issues. Especially when it’s not like the bench is lacking for other good options.
For Allen and Gilmore both, their best options are to establish themselves as THE elder VA GOP statesman who is out there raising morale and showing everyone The Way. Republican morale in Virginia will bottom out after November of 2008. The GOP is about to get clobbered again. They will suddenly find themselves almost totally surrounded by Democrats in power. Democrats in both Senate seats, the Governor’s mansion, probably in control of one or both state houses and possibly picking up a Congressional seat or 2.
This will be akin to an alcoholic waking up in a pile of his own vomit in a stranger’s backyard with no pants on. Suddenly realizing that his life is out of control and he has to find a way out of this immediately. It will be the moment when they are looking for someone to show them the way out. Either Gilmore or Allen could set themselves up to seize on this moment and be the one to show the Virginia Republicans ‘The Way.’ Mind that I’m not saying that either of them are actually equipped to provide those answers. Just that the opportunity will be there and that a very clever, enterprising politician should predict this and prepare for it.