Zogby has Webb up 51% to 47%. That’s four polls in two days that show Webb up by 4-5%. It’s a ground game now, since there’s really nothing that the Allen campaign can competently do through media efforts, and not only is our GOTV better, but I don’t see how the RPV can make up the difference. (Via RK)
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Terrible news for Allen. I wonder whether Allen’s internal polls showed Webb surging a week ago and led to his decision to initiate the novel quote kerfuffle, or whether that decision by itself has resulted in the “blowback” we’re seeing now. Either way, he’s clearly in trouble.
The only good news for Allen seems to be that most of the polls showing Webb leading were apparently taken on the weekend and thus thought to have an overrepresentation of Democrats. Why this is thought to be so I have no idea, but that’s what Allen’s campaign is clinging to.
FWIW, Allen’s internals still have him in the lead, though not at 50%.
We saw the same rationalizing during the Kaine/Kilgore campaign. If a poll was taken during a period that included a Wednesday, Kilgore supporters claimed that Republicans go to church on Wednesday night but Democrats don’t. If a poll was taken on a day when there was a NASCAR race, Kilgore supporters claimed that Republicans were watching the race and wouldn’t have taken the poll, but Democrats would have been home and happy to take it. And so on. It made Kilgore supporters feel warm and fuzzy, but in the end the polls were right: Kilgore got whupped.
That’s interesting about Kaine/Kilgore. I believe both sides have an interest in spinning polls because of the desire of fence-sitters to vote for the “winning team.”
Take a look at what your buddy Karl Rove had to say earlier:
A source on a call for business types with Karl Rove a little earlier today reports that Rove is
talking about GOP turnout…”at or close to 2004 levels.” He went through an avalanche of detailed metrics to back up this claim.
Rove also said KY and IN are crucial for us given that the polls there close an hour earlier than other states and will serve as bellweather for the GOP. He is also concerned about media calling these races early based on exit polls, which could impact turnout elsewhere.
On the state of polling, he believes that they have become less accurate over time, given the increased use of cell phones (instead of land lines), caller I.D., and the Do Not Call list.
Listener describes Rove has relaying a “supreme confidence” that Republicans will retain control of both Houses.
I have no idea whether this is wishful thinking on Rove’s part or not, but he’s been right (ie, correct) before.