Webb’s numbers have soared, along with his name recognition, while Allen’s have only edged down gradually. Given that Webb’s name recognition is still quite low compared to Allen, I have to wonder if people will continue to choose him over Allen as they learn about him. If that’s so, Webb’s in an enviable position right now.
I’m curious as to what two events caused an abrupt drop in Webb’s support coinciding with a surge in Allen’s numbers… looks like it happenen once in mid-June and again at the end of July.
Also I’m very surprised that there wasn’t even a noticable blip in Allen’s ratings after the infamous “Macaca” comment.
Waldo,
Aren’t these numbers from different polls? If so, I think its a bit misleading. There really wasn’t a huge drop in late July – just that one poll was drastically different than the other (earlier) two.
Perhaps an average of the polls would be more accurate in terms of trending? While not strictly correct it should generate a reasonable visual representation.
You bet. Nobody polls often enough to establish a meaningful trend line without aggregating polls.
If there were more polls being done, yes, but there aren’t enough for an average to be meaningful. I’d made a version with one trend line per polling organization but, again, there weren’t enough polls being done per organization, so it just looked silly.
That low poll, BTW, was the Mason-Dixon poll on July 30.
Eric and Waldo:
There is a great aggregated poll result diary that was on DK a few days ago. The person who did it aggregated 5 diferent polls to come up with rankings of House races. Very interesting.
Some of the polls cited: Cook, Sabato, etc.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/8/29/123540/196
His other diaries with his own take are more generous than the pros.
This is what happens when science (eg, genetics) is ignored in the name of religion.
It is also what happens when you are a moron. Perhaps religion is just an excuse in this case.