The results are still coming in across the state for today’s primary, and it’s too early to draw any conclusions. But here in Charlottesville and Albemarle, the results are clear: this is Jim Webb country. Webb carried every precinct in Charlottesville, winning by a margin of more than 15%. The closest that Miller came was 47.9% in JPA. The picture is even rosier for Webb in Albemarle, which he carried by a remarkable 23% margin. There were a pair of tied precincts, with Miller managing a win in just three: Keswick, Monticello and Branchlands. My own precinct, Stony Point, went for Webb by a 2:1 ratio.
Former Charlottesville Democratic Chairman Lloyd Snook is one of those who have been saying that the area is Webb country. I wasn’t sure that he was right, but tonight’s results leave no room for doubt on that question. Funny that one of the state’s more liberal regions would choose the ex-Republican, the more conservative of the two candidates. What that says for the area will be one for the political scientists among us to debate in the coming weeks.
Funny that one of the state’s more liberal regions would choose the ex-Republican, the more conservative of the two candidates.
Or, to put a different spin on it: Not surprising that one of the state’s more activist regions would choose the candidate who was drafted to run, the beneficiary of more grassroots support of the two candidates?
I think with 90% now reporting and Webb up by five, it’s a done deal.
If my mother didn’t have surgery yesterday and didn’t have to vote absentee, Webb would have gotten Georgetown as well.
The Richmond Times Dispatch has declared Webb the winner.
Yeah, once more than ~80% of the votes were tallied, it became statistically improbable that Miller could win. It’ll be interesting to see what the final numbers are.
Miller won the Fifth District, incidentally.
There is a very simple reason why Charlottesville and Albemarle went for Webb…
We know George Allen and we don’t like him. We want someone who has a chance to beat him. Anyone whose campaign slogan is that he will be George Allen’s worst nightmare — hey, that’s our kind of guy.
But it is crucial that now that Webb has the nomination, we support him strongly. Send him money. Put on his bumper stickers. Talk him up to your friends. Do the door-to-door canvassing that Webb and Al Weed will be running in this area. Come to campaign rallies. It’s trite, it’s so “old politics” — but it is vital. This campaign won’t be won on the Internet; it will be won on the streets.
Why did he win? Isn’t that obvious. Let’s see…for Webb: “He served in the Marine Corps and has been awarded two purple hearts among other medals of honor for his service.” I would have voted for him..if I’d voted…
As I recall, this area (even right near your house) is filled with military personnel and a few X-Files theories. Thus, was it really hard to figure out which way the local area would vote?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/waldoj/165212244/
Also, don’t forget that this “liberal” area is working on becoming a rather large military installation.
http://www.thehook.net/2006/05/06/mission-possible-giant-spy-building-may-become-a-reality/
The debate is over. Go back to work now.
FINALLY.
No more democratic in-fighting. Our candidates chosen, let’s bring the fight to the other side! Hello Mr. Allen! What say you Mr. Goode? It’s ok guys, the only thing that you have to fear is the vote itself!
I’d be quite surprised if the area military presence was sufficiently large, politically involved, and Democratic (with a big D) to have been a part of the 5.18% turnout in Albemarle. As I mentally run through the high performance (80%+ turnout) Democrats in my precinct, none are active military that I know of. Certainly the numbers aren’t high enough to explain the ~500 people who, beyond the statewide average, selected Webb over Miller.
That said, yes, it’s worth remembering that there is an increasingly large military (though often civilians working in a military capacity) presence in the area that must have some effect.
I beg all Dems in the 5th, pretty please.
Remember Creigh Deeds’ 323,
never forget,
or you’ll surely regret
Make sure every Webb voter also votes for Al Weed.
But, when you look at the really big military areas (the Tidewater region), Miller carried those areas. That in itself is something to ponder.
Even though Cumberland’s numbers were small (as usual for a primary–but still lower than expected), I feel that many of the Webb voters only came out because they were called by Webb supporters in the last few days or got his flyers just before the election. Many people I spoke to yesterday (including my principal–from Buckingham Co.) were not even aware of the election. In addition, I had a doctor’s appt. in Richmond and some chores to run in the area. As I drove through parts of Cumberland, Powhatan, Chesterfield, Richmond and Midlothian, I only saw Webb signs. Miller wasn’t even a visible presence in the area–so the mailings and robo-calls as well as calls from Miller supporters must have worked well for him. Lots of lessons for prospective candidates to learn in this election.
You know, Josh, I always remember that. Having worked the recount around here, I realize how a local Democratic committee just bringing out 3 or 4 voters for Creigh Deeds across the state could have changed the face of that election.
How much effect do you all think Republicans voting in the primary had? Isn’t it a little odd that Webb won, by a decent margin, the areas with a large Democratic presence but lost many of the rural and more Republican and conservative areas?
Some of the majority-Republican areas are also areas where many of the Democratic voters are African American, and Webb did poorly among them. Miller had highlighted Webb’s ties to Reagan and claimed that he was opposed to affirmative action (and it is in fact the case that Webb’s public statements on affirmative action over the years show some inconsistencies). So that may help explain results in Richmond and southside.
Quite a few blog commenters have noted that one of Webb’s top to-do list items will be outreach to black voters.
Good Point David… Reaching out to Blacks should definitely be near the top of his list… My mom even almost voted for Miller until we talked about it for a while. The Democrats will have a hard time winning the general election if Blacks decide not to come out.
I think that it’s not surprising that the heavily military areas didn’t necessarily go for Webb – it’s the Democrat primary. Those areas may include folks who will cross the line in November for Webb, but won’t come out for the primary. Turnout was way light – even in C’ville which was better than the state numbers. Heh…I didn’t make it to the polls until just after 6PM, and was the 79th voter in my precinct (Alumni Hall)…that’s low numbers. Does make one feel their vote counts!
I would also say that Miller won in areas where he visited, where Webb never reached.
Areas where there is not as much of an organized party apparatus with lots of opinion leaders pushing Webb.
Southside Dems felt practically snubbed by Webb, and were wearing that chip on their shoulder.
At the last minute I saw a lot of people voting for the candidate that someone, who they thought had more political knowledge, told them to vote for.
I think Jon is right. Miller spent the time in the Southside and his trouncing of Webb in that area shows that it was time well spent for him. I do believe that the Webb campaign was surprised at how badly they were beat there. Whistling past the graveyard didn’t work. The Southside problems are a wake up call for both Webb and Weed as we head into the general. Southside needs a lot of attention, hand holding, stroking and hard campaigning. They need to know they are valued and the campaign is paying attention.
Having said all of that, it is hard to fault a winning campaign that started late and had no money to speak of. Damn impressive win.
I also agree that the military/veteran voters were not a factor in the primary. I think they will be a factor in the general. I also think that for the first time in a very long time that Democrats are actually competitive in this area. This is an area that I know. I am an orginal co-founder of Vietnam Veterans of America and I worked in the Dept of Vets Affairs in the Wilder administration.
The military/vets vote is a group that Allen cannot afford to lose. This time I think he will. I fully expect the swift boaters to crawl out from under the rocks and, when they do, this campaign will be ready for them. In fact, I expect the campaign to take the initiative to the Allen campaign. The cowboys have gotten us into the war in Iraq and its time for a real combat vet to help set the policy to get us out. Senator Cowboy can be beat.
Those of us who follow things on the Internet have heard of Jim Webb, but most potential voters around the state had not heard of him. Miller went everywhere. He shook a lot of hands. He understands, from his own experience, how political parties work. He worked at courting the African-American vote; notice how Petersburg and Richmond, for example, went SO heavily for Miller. Petersburg is the most heavily African-American city in the state, and it went for Miller by 81-19%.
Others have noted that Webb needs to start right away courting the African-American vote. He needs to call up the people that Miller had called two months ago, and he needs to say, “You can help me. Together we can do this.” They won’t immediately say “You got me,” but they need to know RIGHT NOW that their support is wanted. Then it will be there in October.
Well, I ‘m a 32-year veteran (total years’ service, not my age), and I made sure I was there at oh-dark-thirty at Hollymead Elementary to throw my lot in for Webb. Okay, I confess I didn’t get up overly early, but at least I went! It certainly wasn’t my first Democratic primary or vote, but I can’t say that I saw anyone else there I recognized as current or retired military. Then again, I only saw one other voter while I was there.
As for the current active duty types here in town, or in Norfolk or Langley AFB or whereever, most aren’t eligible to vote here in VA unless this happens to be their home of record. The military allows those of us on active duty to select any place we like as our home of record. Many active duty types select Texas or Florida for their home of record since neither has stringent residency rules and neither has a state income tax. I dont know for sure, but I suspect nobody should count too much on a military vote here, since most military here are actually residents elsewhere.
He needs to get Wilder to endorsee him, that would go a long way. Will Wilder do that ? Hard to say, he didn’t endorse Deeds over the gun issue, I am assuming he would have the same reservations about Webb, compounded of course.
Maybe, we should start writing him letters, anyone reading this who lives in Richmond? A draft Wilder into the Webb movement, anyone?
Also we should consider that, at least in Albemarle, Al Weed’s endorsement went a real long way in persuading people that it was ok to vote for a former Republican (negating the thrust of Millers main attack on Webb).
One other thing about Miller & Southside – the two times I saw Miller and Webb speak, Miller, whatever his history as an outsourcing industry lobbyist, demonstrated a very powerful and lucid grasp of the state of our economy and the needed policy prescriptions. Perhaps ‘it takes one to know one’, but he was able to put a little wonky passion into a very clear and easily understood presentation of the issues. I think his history in the party and his ability to connect on those issues probably made him sound a lot better to the folks in southside than a former Reaganaut.
Heh…while we’re all speculating, though, who has talked to folks down in Southside? What did party folks down there have to say?
at least some of them were pissed off at Webb because he didn’t make it down there. and in martinsville he even canceled an appearance.