A little-discussed aspect of keeping Sen. George Allen to a single term is the devastating impact that it would have on his political network.
As Allen rapidly rose through the Virginia political ranks, he brought with him a small cadre of consultants, admirers and hangers-on. Some of these folks aspire to higher office. Should Sen. Allen succeed in reelection, and subsequently launch a presidential bid, this will provide a smooth path to office for at least a small handful of Republicans. Should he be defeated this November, it will bring him and his followers to an abrupt and inglorious end.
Imagine if Tim Kaine had been defeated by Jerry Kilgore last November. Now imagine as if Democrats had been speaking of Tim Kaine as presidential material since 1990. Consider what happened instead–Kaine’s election has made possible Gov. Warner’s run for the presidency. There’s your analogy.
Defeating Sen. George Allen this November isn’t just important in an abstract sense. It will take the Republicans’ legs out from under them, leaving a significant portion of the party adrift. It could well take years to recover. Remember that as we head towards the primary and the election beyond. There’s a lot at stake here.
On the other hand, as noted by Larry Sabato in a recent posting from his Crystal Ball (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2006041201), if George does win this fall then he would be trying to become only the 3rd sitting Senator ever to be elected President. Not to mention, if he leaves his Senate seat, Tim Kaine gets to appoint a new Senator (read – Democrat). So, all things considered, Allen has picked a tough road to the White House by running for re-election – win or lose it will hurt him in 2008.
I’m curious as to who you’re supporting, Waldo. I don’t believe I’ve heard anything about it…
Imagine, if you will, one of Allen’s hangers-on: Tucker Watkins for chief of staff anybody?
You have just woke up and you are in The Twilight Zone.
If Webb takes Allen down in November then the entire Virginia Republican Party will essentially have it’s back broken. Without Allen protecting her, Kate Obenshein will find herself looking for a new job. George Allen is the political force that keeps the state party’s leadership intact. Take him out of the picture and the rift in the GOP will grow until they have been torn in half from stem to stern. At that point, there would be nobody in the party with enough gravity to enforce unity and discipline.
Then the Virginia Democrats will be ready to pick up whatever pieces they think they can use.
Destroy George Allen and you will crush the Republican party and create a Democratic majority. The VA GOP would have to be completely rebuilt. It could take them as long as a decade to really recover.
? Which of Allen’s “hangers-on” do you see having aspirations for higher office? I’ve never gotten that impression at all from Allen’s A-Team. What I have found is a group that is fiercely loyal to their boss and often put his long term interests ahead of their own personal ambition. If you could name one prominent Allen insider who wants to run for office that would be news to me.
Hindsight is 20/20 on whether Allen made a poor miscalculation on running for U.S. Senate as a platform for the presidency. The one advantage of the Senate is a candidate can maintain a high level of visitibility nationally for a long period of time. Allen is young enough that if he doesn’t win the nomination he would be an attractive running mate or can wait 4-8 years and try again.
I haven’t said.
Paul Harris is certainly a prime example. Jerry Kilgore was the prime example, but that’s no more, of course.
????? You pull out Paul Harris as one of Allen’s “small cadre of consultants, admirers and hangers-on.”? Harris was never part of Allen’s inner C-ville team and has built a fairly amazing career both in the Justice Department and in the private sector entirely on his own, without Allen’s help.
Harris was Allen’s “Campaign Chairman” in 2000, but that was largely a ceremonial role; he had virtually no input on strategy or message. Even if Allen looses this seat in November (which I consider a very rare possibility), Harris has carved out own success largely and would will win statewide office largely on his own merits.
I do agree with your sentiments that Kilgore’s rise to statewide prominence is largely the result of Allen placing him in his cabinent in 1993. I hardly see how an Allen defeat affects Kilgore’s political career since it is essentially over.
In the end, while an Allen defeat would be a huge, and suprising, Democratic victory, it would hardly spell the end of the Republican Party in Virginia.
And good for Paul Harris, but his career in the Justice Department and the private sector (he’s a lobbyist for a military contractor, I believe) aren’t doing him any good for getting into office. His start was largely thanks to Sen. Allen, and he’s consequently very much in the mold of Allen. Harris must surely enjoy the benefits of being a part of the Allen network. If Allen were taken down, many of the connections that will make a Harris run possible will likewise disappear.
It wouldn’t. Hence my use of the past tense.
True! It’s a good thing that nobody said it would. :)
I think the Rs are almost as beat-up as we can get in Virginia. RPV is pretty much a hollow shell and as yet there is no indication that RPV has any serious plans to do anything about the quality of candidates that have been running recently (although recent stories about Mr Green in Loudoun are a sign of hope). It seems that even for statewide races they will be content through 2009 to wheel out Richmond retreads. 2007 might offer some wake-up tonic, but we’ll see when we get there.
RE 2006, Allen should win. The more realistic question is how tough a fight can the Dems make it. If they make it a close race (better than 55-45), it will stake some of the starch out of the Presidential idea. All other 2006 races look fairly status quo, with the possible exception of Thelma Drake.
Don’t forget Claude Allen… oh… wait.
I think I may be on of the hangers on that Waldo is talking about. Unfortunately, I can’t think of anything I get out of an Allen White house other than some good “remember when” stories.
It is a disservice to Paul Harris to believe that a defeated George Allen impacts him. Paul is a force in his own right, both politically and personally. I count myself lucky to know him, and hope to see him as Governor one day.
The speculation on changes at RPV is probably correct. George Allen and Jerry Kilgore had heavy hands in picking the current chair. Without some victories those winds of change will be blowing hard.
All this hypothetical discussion is great, but one fact stands out. George Allen will be reelected to the Senate.
Allen’s “A-Team” could more accurately be called his “F-Team”. They’re the most incompetent bunch of crooks I’ve ever seen.
They’re universally disrespected on capitol hill…
Mike,
Last poll I saw (about a month ago), George Allen was polling at 49% for reelection. That’s not a figure that should inspire the kind of confidence that you’re suggesting. That’s 49% before anyone has even started to really campaign against him. Remember that Allen only won this seat with 52% in the first place. That was back in 2000 when the GOP were adding to their state house and senate majorities and Jim Gilmore was Governor. Has there been more than a 2 point party shift in Virginia since then? The election of 2 consecutive Democratic Governors – one by 5 points and another by 6 points – plus the steady erosion of the Republican legislative majorities in 2 regular cycles (plus numerous special elections) suggests that George Allen is now campaigning in much more hostile territory than that which gave him his narrow 2000 victory.
A credible, skilled challenger who doesn’t make any major missteps should be able to take down a 49 percenter in this political environment. Let’s be honest: this is as good a recipe for taking out an encumbant without a scandal as you can get.
However, I’ll be the first to acknowledge that it’s not clear that the Democrats will be fielding such a baseline candidate against Allen. 30 seconds of watching Harris Miller at a podium convinced me that he is hands down the worst candidate for statewide office in Virginia that we have seen in the last 5 years. James Webb is good on paper and gets favorable buzz, but the fact remains that he’s never run for office before and we don’t know what bad habits he might have.
If Allen wins reelection, it’s because the Democrats dropped the ball in candidate recruitment.
Best VA Senate thread I’ve seen.
Thanks, y’all.
good stuff.
Jack – I will think about what you said. 52% as a challenger is really good and as the incumbent Allen should do much better this time.