Some Republicans are fond of saying that Sen. George Allen could beat Mark Warner in any sort of an electoral challenge, declaring that “Allen would mop the floor with Warner,” or “Warner wouldn’t have a chance.” This springs from the recently-created myth that Allen is some sort of unstoppable force. Putting this myth to rest is UVa’s Center for Politics, who polled Virginians on their preference for president, between Allen and Warner, and found that Mark Warner kicks all kinds of ass, leaving Allen in the dust with 32%.
In his analysis of the results, Center for Politics directory Larry Sabato writes that “in the state that knows them both best, Warner is the undisputed king of the hill.”
Damn straight.
SMACKDOWN!
Allen is a paper tiger. If Webb gets into this year’s race, he’ll set Allen’s house on fire.
http://www.draftjameswebb.com
I’ve gotta say, I’d love to see this matchup (although I’ll take Harris Miller, I suppose :) ). Underestimate Allen at your own risk.
Remember, Allen had a similar approval rating as Warner on the day Allen left the Governorship. After a bruising campaign between these two, I’d take my chances with Allen, thank you very much.
And, goodness, how much fun would this race be for political junkies?
I think Warner has history on his side and Allen doesn’t. If there’s such thing as a political pendulum it’s fast swinging away from Allen towards Warner.
And, goodness, how much fun would this race be for political junkies?
Seriously. Suddenly Virginia political blogs would be a freaking goldmine for political junkies across the nation. Think of the Blogads revenue… *drool*
Makes one wonder why Warner would refuse to run against Allen for the Senate seat. He must know that the national Democrats will never let him on the ticket in ’08. Remember, “Mark Warner has a lot to learn before he’s ready for prime time.” Then again, maybe they could convince him to pull a Lieberman, and suddenly become an ultra liberal. I don’t see him doing that, though.
I seem to recall that Kilgore had a lead of about this size less than a year before he lost to Kaine. Warner is no doubt smart enough to realize that the odds of him “kicking all kinds of ass” in a race against Allen are somewhere between slim and none.
Not that we’ll ever get to see it, though, since Warner won’t run against him. Reminds me a little of Paul Trible. ;-)
I seem to recall that Kilgore had a lead of about this size less than a year before he lost to Kaine.
Do you really think it’s accurate to compare polling in a race between an obscure Attorney General and an even more obscure Lieutenant Governor to a race between two former Governors, one of whom is a sitting U.S. Senator? I’d wager that one is likely to be a lot more fluid than the other.
I. Publius,
What makes you think that we wouldn’t put Warner on the national ticket in ’08? I think he’s going to win. Everyone is going to be looking around for a ‘stop Hillary’ candidate (Democrats hate her now as much as some Republicans do). Warner has the cash to be the last man standing as the other candidates find that they just don’t have the money to support a major ground operation in NH and Iowa. These other guys are going to start dropping. At the toughest, most expensive moment of the primary that usually strains out the non-contenders, Warner can inject tens of millions of his own money. It’ll be him and Hillary duking it out. If he wins either Iowa or NH and then goes on to take SC (proving his Southern mettle) then I think he’ll have the momentum to knock Hillary out. I sure as hell hope so anyway. Do you want to see President Hillary Clinton? Me neither.
Warner being an impossibly popular Southern Governor who can absolutely deliver a red state with 13 electoral votes that haven’t been on the table for decades, he’ll be the natural candidate that everyone sick of Hillary will coalesce around.
There’s been a transformation in the Democratic party that non-members may not have noticed. Ideology is no longer as important as it was. The litmus tests are gone. We have little patience for special interest groups. What modern Democrats respect is a guy who tells the truth, knows right from wrong and can kick some Republican ass. Look at how we practically worship Harry Reid and Brian Schweitzer. Reid is adamantly pro-life and really very conservative in many ways. Ditto for Schweitzer, who is a crusader for second amendment rights to boot. Paul Hackett was our off-year poster boy and he has a concealed weapons permit that would have infuriated the left 10 years ago.
Positions that were considered ‘Republican’ 10 years ago have become the provence of the Democratic party’s heroes. You should be glad for this. When the Democrats regain power, you’ll find that we and our leaders have become much more centrist and less ideological such that a lot of your better legislation ideas will have a real chance of happening even if we hold a 10 seat advantage. You’ll find that nobody with any power wants to take guns away, run a defecit, use public funds for abortion or silence student-led prayer in schools. There will be no new ‘Hillary care’ type things to worry about. The Democratic party is creating a new generation of leaders who aren’t going to piss you off with that kind of stuff and they’ll be setting the party’s agenda for decades to come. The shrill socialist left will be out in the cold for a very, very long time.
My point is that Warner’s conservative stances on budget issues and guns are not deal-breakers with the modern Democratic party. Mark Warner perfectly captures the tone of centrist Democrats in a way that no other likely ’08 Presidential candidate does.
i.publius…
funny you should make that point.
It seems that James Webb is polling behind Allen with numbers almost identical to the Kaine/Kilgore numbers of a year ago. Nobody’s mentioned James Webb in a political context in over a decade, but whispers of a Webb candidacy give him a fighting chance. A fighting chance is all James Webb has ever needed to bring Victory and Honor to America.
http://www.draftjameswebb.com
Check out the Zogby poll:
Allen: 49
Webb: 38
Allen: 50
Miller: 36
Allen’s vulnerable — and we’ve got at least one good candidate in there who’s willing to go after him — maybe two!
Webb seems to be a good and honorable man. I’d be proud to be represented by him. Maybe he’ll run when John Warner retires. As things stand now, he’d likely get my vote.
Remember, “Mark Warner has a lot to learn before he’s ready for prime time.”
Please. If Donna Brazile decides the nomination, we’re in worse trouble than I thought.
I agree with Jiminy. We Democrats don’t need Donna Brazile. We remember the mud she threw at George H. W. Bush and that’s not the way we want to run political campaigns. If Mark Warner has a lot to learn, I hope he won’t permit Donna Brazile to be his teacher.