Republican Jerry Kilgore has received a pair of high-profile endorsements in the past twenty four hours, one from the National Rifle Association and one from the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce’s PAC.
The NRA endorsement seems pretty obvious. Lt. Governor Tim Kaine’s support for common-sense gun restrictions piss off the NRA. I’m a gun owner, and I think that responsible Americans ought to own a firearm. If Kaine has ever supported any kind of gun restrictions that rub me the wrong way, I don’t know about them. (Even if Kaine had a position on guns that the NRA reviewed as superior to Kilgore’s — and it’s not even close — they’d be unwise to endorse him, since they just endorsed Kaine ticketmate Creigh Deeds for attorney general. They’d anger their core supporters.) Surely a better scenario would have been no endorsement at all. That said, it’s very much worth remembering that they supported Republican Mark Earley in 2001, and he lost by 6% to Democrat Mark Warner. To the extent to which the Virginia Citizens Defense League withholding their endorsement this year indicates a collective reluctance to commit to Kilgore on the issue, and to the extent to which the NRA nod did Earley any good last time around, this particular turn of events may just be par for the course, if Warner’s 2001 path can be judged to be the course.
Let me just say that NOVABizPAC has a ridiculous name. It doesn’t help at all that it contains the world “NoVA,” a word that I hold at arm’s length along with “pomo” and “anywho”. I prefer “upstate Virginia,” because it angers them. More on topic, I can’t claim to understand the impact of the Fairfax Chamber’s endorsement. Anything north of Culpeper is a mystery to me. I can’t find my way around on the roads, districts are the size of postage stamps, and they spend a million bucks to get onto the board of supervisors. I feel like Gulliver up there. But I will happily speculate on the motivation for this endorsement, and I think it’s a simple one.
Upstate Virginians of a financial and political bent have long been irritated that they pay more in taxes than they get back in services. They figure that they’re propping up Southside. And they’re right, they are — that’s their duty. And in 100 years, when DC is a post-apocalyptic wasteland, they’ll happily be supported by Southside, where the only manufacturing equipment will remain within the Lower 48. So while Kaine supports the sort of socially-responsible government that leads to these sort of taxation inequities, Kilgore believes that state government should tax by referenda, and have localities levy a bunch of taxes. This is the fiscal equivalent of our Jim Crow era school system, which makes sure that our poor kids to poor schools and rich kids to rich schools; never the twain shall meet.
For NOVABizPAC, a Kilgore taxation plan is a wet dream. Richmond stays out of their hair, they keep their money, and they’ll get to cover the whole of the northern tenth of the state with a thick, hearty layer of asphalt.
If a PAC’s name appears on just thirteen sites in Google, does it have any impact? It’s Brobdingnag; I’m damned near Lilliputian. This Blanibari approach to endorsements doesn’t make much sense to me.
I got into a little online debate with a guy posting under the name RAT this week over one of Kilgore’s highly vaunted endorsements. I found this really interesting:
That doesn’t mean that all of Kilgore’s endorsements are Cronyist, but this one certainly seems to be. Also I think we’re all going to wonder about the Fairfax CoC endorsement. That’s one that just totally opaque to me.
It’s well worth noting that the NOVABizPAC was just formed in 2002, so this isn’t a case of a PAC that has reversed itself from a 2001 endorsement.
“It’s surprising for two reasons,” said Larry J. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “Kaine won the debate in Fairfax, and this is Mark Warner’s base, and they’re turning their back on Warner’s chosen successor,” Sabato said, referring to Gov. Mark R. Warner (D).
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/06/AR2005100601871.html
Somebody give Kaine an icepack… Kilgore tagged him in the jaw pretty good. :-)
I love the word “NoVa” as it applies to this PAC. To a Spanish speaker it means “No-go.” Doesn’t mean much to anyone else, but some of us might find the name we see as “No-GoBizPAC” as somehow apt. GM’s attempts to market the Chevy Nova in South America back in the 1970’s didn’t turn off so well. Maybe NoVABizPAC’s endorsement will help bring a similar outcome.
i am none too impressed by the NOVABizPAC’s decision. i think it reflects more poorly on them then on Kaine.
Waldo–
Your point about Earley and the NRA four years ago is well-taken. However (and I will fully admit that my memory may be faulty here, and I don’t know where to go to confirm this), wasn’t Warner up by 14 points or something before the NRA made their endorsement of Earley?
One other thing to consider is that rural Virginians couldn’t care less about Earley. Kilgore is popular in rural areas, so perhaps a strong endorsement by the NRA might carry more weight this time around.
One more note: I don’t mean to suggest that the NRA endorsement is the only reason that Earley made a bit of a late charge. However, I don’t think Waldo can honestly claim that it had no effect, either. We just don’t know, so I’m not sure it’s a good item of comparison.
I don’t agree with everything Waldo says here, especially the NOVA bashing, but anyone who can use the words “Brobdingnag,” “Lilliputian” and “Blanibari” in a post about Virginia politics is cool in my book! :)
The NRA did not endorse a candidate for Governor four years ago. By staying out of the race, it was viewed as a victory for Warner.
I am a fool – I thought Earley had the endorsement withheld. My bad.
wasn’t Warner up by 14 points or something before the NRA made their endorsement of Earley?
I have to admit that I don’t remember, either. While I paid close attention, I believe that you and I have set new standards for “close attention” this time around. :)
And, Simon, you’re actually onto something there. The NRA never formally endorsed Earley, in the sense that they never said “we endorse him.” In late October, they sent out a letter to all of their members and strongly encouraged them to vote for Earley. On one hand, their lack of an endorsement was seen as a Warner victory. OTOH, when they sent out their letters shortly thereafter, there was some head-scratching over what, exactly, the definition of “endorsement” is.