The Kilgore-Kaine race is close. We now know that the Kilgore campaign knows the race is close. Why? They’ve called in Sen. John McCain and former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
Why would the Kilgore campaign do such a thing, if the Republican Party needs conservatives, not moderates to win? Because the party needs moderates to win, not conservatives.
[…]
The problem for both McCain and Giuliani is that all the pandering is annoying some of us moderates. Kilgore has turned out to be a very mediocre candidate with a badly run campaign. He doesn’t really deserve to win. He isn’t inspirational at all, he’s been badly managed, and against anyone one seat towards the center of Tim Kaine, he’d be losing handily.
JD’s thoughts, combined with the ongoing discussion on centrists, have really been the first substantive consideration that I’ve seen of moderates and this race. And fair enough — bloggers are people of strong opinion, and so we tend to pull to either side of the spectrum. If there’s any Virginia political blogger torn between Kaine and Kilgore, I’ve never encountered him.
Kilgore and Kaine are both position themselves towards the center, like many candidates across the nation, while this most-vocal sector of the electorate is pulling in opposite directions. I’m not sure what to make of that.
I think it is entirely possible to be a politically moderate and to have a firm opinion on the candidates. While drawing firm party lines does make for decisiveness, moderates do have principles — it just takes longer to tease out which candidate gets higher marks when you are near the center. Unfortunately many undecided voters are mistaken for moderates, and visa versa.
As for Kilgore and Kaine positioning themselves toward the center, I think this is normal toward the end of an election. Early on you rally the base and gradually move inward (and even flirt with the opposing views) in order to tip the balance. I’m not sure if it works, but given that many undecided voters are near the center of the spectrum it stands to reason that a politician would direct his or her message in that way.
I think it is entirely possible to be a politically moderate and to have a firm opinion on the candidates.
Oh, certainly — I wouldn’t claim otherwise. But a year ago, when neither candidate had talked much about their plans for governor, I still didn’t know any bloggers who were torn. (A year ago, there were only a dozen of us Virginia political bloggers, though.) Centrists, as a matter of definition, are far less likely to make their minds up along partisan lines — they don’t let parties do their thinking for them. Consequently, they require time to research candidates before making up their minds and, in turn, that means a period of not having a horse in a particular race.
Virginia’s moderates, by and large, have the same views on two wedge issues as Kilgore (and Geore Allen, btw). On abortion — leave the law the way it is, reasonable restrictions are a good thing, we’d really rather not talk about it too much. On capital punishment — leave the law the way it is, use it when appropriate.
A former prosecutor and AG, who doesn’t wear the abortion issue on his sleeve, and has no qualms (perceived or otherwise) about signing execution papers, is an easy choice for many moderates… whether he’s the “ideal” candidate or not.
(this is somewhat off-topic, but the same holds for the AG race. McDonnell’s position on gun control is in line with the vast majority of Virginians… hence, the NRA endorsement of Deeds, coupled with the FOP endorsement of McDonnell, plays right into McDonnell’s hand — especially with moderates.)
the NRA endorsement of Deeds…plays right into McDonnell’s hand
I’m looking forward to a Deeds victory, so you can explain how, in becoming AG, he’s playing right into McDonnell’s hands.
Hey, I’m looking forward to UVA winning the Orange Bowl this year, too. And the men’s basketball team sweeping Duke in ’06. Maybe we can celebrate together. ;-)
On abortion and capital punishment:
I think Centrists could give a rip about both issues, generally. They’re not important. Unlike liberals, they don’t feel that strong tug to protect every abortion right, right down to the last second in the 3rd trimester. Unlike Conservatives, they tend favor capital punishment, but not really care much about the issue. Many centrists attitude on CP is, “Ok, sure, we kill bad people. That’s fine. Whatever. So we might kill a few less if I vote for this guy? Who cares.”
Neither one of these issues dictate voting, unless the candidate is FAR out of the mainstream.
Waldo, regardless of other people’s views, I’ve always been a self-professed centrist. Granted, we’ve never met, so your contention of not encountering a Kaine-Kilgore fence-sitting blogger holds since I’m a newbie among the political bloggers. I posted my support for Byrne on my blog today because I could actually figure out where she stood, and Bolling’s too hard-right for me. If people subscribe to the “if you aren’t in agreement with my conservatism, you’re a liberal” bent, that’s beyond my control. But, it still doesn’t change the fact that I’m pro-gun (the more guns, the better), pro-choice, pro-NASCAR, and pro-business. If only Warner could run again….
FYI, I tried to parse out some moderate views on Kilgore a few weeks ago….
— Conaway
But, Conaway, you know you’re the exception to all other bloggers in Virginia. :)
Flattery is always appreciated, from the right or left, my friend. My ego is nonpartisan.
— Conaway
I wonder if there is a point of bringing in “moderates” (for either party) at this point. I think most people (conservative, liberal, moderate) know by now who they will vote for, should they vote at all. The bigger issue for November 8th will be how energized each side is. If Republicans are more excited, I suspect more of them will vote, and vote for Kilgore. Should the Kaine campaign excite more Democrats, I believe Kaine will likely win.
As for the downticket races, I believe the Republicans will sweep. I just do not think people are getting excited about those races, and they will come down to the simple political layout of the Commonwealth (that is, right of center).
CR – I tend to agree on the downticket races (the upticket downticket ones, that is).
As for the top of the ticket…would you say that Republicans are as fired up as Democrats right now? I doubt it. But that’s only part of the issue. You can’t ignore the large number of state swing voters in Virginia, who vote for the GOP in national elections but remain unattached to a particular state party. Why else would Kilgore refuse to take a position on abortion and take the pro-tax position on budgetary matters unless he craved these voters? Of course, he could be in error. Would you say so?
I would clarify the inference Mr. Jaquith makes in his post proper (when he quotes my disappointment with Jerry Kilgore, qua gubernatorial candidate, and his campaign, yet says that no Virginia political blogger–except Mr. Haskins–is torn about for whom he will vote): to my mind, the question I face is not whether to vote for Kaine or Kilgore, but whether to show up and bother to vote for Kilgore at all. And that is no minor question for me; I’ve never missed an election–general, special, primary, or other–since the day I registered to vote at 17.
On another note, I’m far less interested in what self-described conservatives or liberals believe centrists, moderates, and independents think about any issue (or the relative importance of any given issue to centrists, moderates, and independent, compared to any other given issue). We centrists, moderates, and independents are capable of speaking for ourselves. The more organized of us do so at the Centrist Coalition, where I (increasingly infrequently) contribute posts and commentary.
For example, how a centrist would view the NRA endorsement of Sen. Deeds would depend largely on whether that centrist’s philosophy preferred substantive centrism or procedural centrism, which is a debate within the centrist community most conservatives and liberals don’t even know exists.
It’s always delightful when the hard right (I Publius) and the hard left (Paul) speak for the moderates. Neither one is very well attuned to
the thoughts of folks in the center. So long as they (and their fellow partisans) continue to believe that they’ve got the pulse of
the moderates, they will continue to see political contests that are neck and neck, I believe. Bottom line, right field always turns out to vote for
the Republican. Left field always turns out to vote for the Democrat. What makes or breaks your candidate can be can be found
in center field.
Woah, woah, woah, Olivia, I take that hard left comment as a grave insult! You’re talking to mr. anti-gun control, pro-iraq war, pro-privatizing social security, pro-eliminating the capital gains tax, anti-michael moore/farenheit 9-11, anti-howard dean, anti-hillary clinton, anti-cindy shaheen…and to add to that, I’m thoroughly embarrassed by liberal economic and foreign policy. I can’t read Salon or The Nation or watch the Daily Show or read the NYTimes editorial pages without gagging at the idiotic liberal clap trap. I hope I convinced you that I’m at least not “hard left”. I’ll listen to people call me liberal (I support pretty much every gay rights or abortion rights cause), but not “hard left”. My god, don’t you think I have any sense at all???
I won’t take that “hard left” comment standing up!!!
“I won’t take that “hard left” comment standing up!!!”
But you don’t understand. Unless you are extreme hard right, then by definition you are a liberal commie pinko wacko. And the worst thing about you leftist nutjobs is all the namecalling you do.
Hey JD: question: isn’t centrism (not to mention wanting the government to be kept in check) best served by divided party government in most cases? Why don’t you think there is more of an overt political philosophy that actively promotes and pushes for divided party rule in states and the federal leauges?
Divided government does pull both parties toward the center. There’s a lengthy (and perhaps superfluous) proof of this intuitive fact using basic game theory in Wm. N. Eskridge et al., Cases and Materials on Legislation, Statutes and the Creation of Public Policy (3d. ed.)
There’s no overt movement pushing for divided government for the same reason that there’s been no successful third party movement in almost 150 years (Minnesota and other lovalized exceptions excluded): it’s too expensive in time, money, and manpower to build a new movement. It’s easier and cheaper to work to conquer an existing party. You can’t conquer a party, and pirate its infrastructure, if your message is, “We want one party here, and the other party here.”
Paul, my apologies. Perhaps I have mistaken you for another Paul poster that I see regularly on some blogs. That Paul has never posted
anything middle-of-the-road, that I can recall.
And perhaps rather than saying hard-left or hard-right, I should say “entrenched” – referring to a Republican who really wouldn’t vote
for a Democrat, even if their life depended on it and vice versa.