Jerry Kilgore’s campaign seems to have settled on “honest reform” as their campaign slogan. It’s a terrible slogan, and I think a look at each word helps to show why.
“Honest.” Well, sure, we all want this. But to what is Kilgore drawing a contrast? The incumbent, Mark Warner, has never been accused of being dishonest. With an unprecedented 74% approval rating, there’s not even an implication of dishonesty. Only the tiny fraction of the public who remain convinced that Warner has handled the budget badly would accuse him of being dishonest, though these are far-right Republicans who are going to vote for Kilgore anyhow. And Kilgore’s opponent, Tim Kaine, certainly isn’t known for being dishonest, either. To my memory, I can’t think of a single time he’s been called on any misrepresentation in his campaign, unlike Kilgore, who is emerging as something of a serial liar on several key campaign matters. I don’t know what chunk of the electorate that this word is supposed to activate, or what underlying belief that it should trigger.
“Reform.” Reform what? Government, presumably. But, again, with Warner’s 74% approval rating and the great progress that Virginia has made under Warner/Kaine leadership has left the public with no taste for reform. On the other hand, President Bush’s approval ratings are in the tank (41%, last I checked). To the extent to which public support for the president extends to same-party candidates for governor (and I recommend Thomas Carsey’s “Campaign Dynamics” for a study of this phenomenon), “reform” is the sort of word that would compel people to support a Democrat, not a Republican. Additionally, Mark Warner ran on a platform of reform, promising to run Virginia government more like a business. He delivered on that promise, carving millions out of the budget and streamlining government from the ground up. That reform has been both popular and successful.
“Honest reform.” I don’t get it. For a Democrat in Ohio, that would be a great slogan. For a Republican challenging Chicago Mayor Daley, it would be an ideal slogan. For a Republican in Virginia, running against Mark Warner’s heir, it’s foolishness.
There is, I think, a simple explanation for this. Jerry Kilgore is a Norquist free-luncher, and I can only assume that his staff consists of more of the same. If they’re operating in the kind of echo chamber that I think they are, I expect they’re ignoring the polling data and running on their gut. Their gut tells them that Warner and Kaine are liars and thieves, in which case “honest reform” is an ideal slogan. The trouble is that their gut is wrong, both in reality and in public perception.
A reversal now would be an admissions of error, which I don’t think will happen. I expect the campaign will stick to their guns, touting “honest reform,” a solution to a problem that not only doesn’t exist, but people won’t believe it exists. Keep it up, guys.