Almost two years ago now, it was clear that the Karl Rove/Valerie Plame situation was trouble for the White House. They just didn’t know how to handle it. And last December, I pointed out that there was just no way that Rumsfeld would be pushed out of the administration, Abu Ghraib be damned.
Ditto on the current Karl Rove scandal. Now that it’s known (except to the most ardent Republican who has been blinded by faith) that it’s Rove who released the name of an undercover operative for President Bush’s political gain, it’s clear that he must go. But he won’t. Here’s my forecast.
The White House is going to completely clam up about the Plame Affair. They’re going to keep Rove on a tight leash in the coming months, as they did (and are still doing) with Rumsfeld, so that the public will forget that he works there. They’ll keep dragging their feet on the investigation. They won’t do any kind of an internal investigation, as President Bush said they would, anymore than OJ Simpson is out looking for “the real killer.” Unless Rove is actually convicted of something — and there’s no good route for an appeal — he’ll stay in the employ of the president.
If Karl Rove actually goes to jail, that is the only way that he will cease to serve as “Bush’s brain.” Political pressure might build sufficiently that he could lose his job as a federal employee and his White House office, but he’d surely continue in his current capacity, his paycheck provided by a Republican “thinktank.”
As far as I’m concerned, Rove leaving the White House would be a significant blow to Democrats. So long as he remains there, he drags out the controversy, keeps it in the public eye, and drags the president’s approval ratings down with him. (I bet President Bush will be sub-40% in the next couple of weeks.) If he leaves, the White House takes no real personnel loss, but gets to reap the benefits of appearing to solve the problem.
Democrats should keep up the pressure, yes, because it keeps the White House looking bad and will help to further weaken public support, which will be of aid in the upcoming Supreme Court nominee battles. But it would be foolish to believe that Karl Rove could or should go. It won’t happen, and it’s best for Democrats that it not happen.
You might want to actually pay attention to the reporting.
1. He didn’t release “the name,” because he didn’t refer to her name.
2. She wasn’t (for nine years) and isn’t “an undercover operative.”
Hence, no crime was committed.
You might be right about the political fallout. Time will tell. But I hope you Dems continue to believe that he is “Bush’s Brain.” That kind of delusion is what keeps getting you beat at the ballot box.
James, if you have any special information about what, exactly, Karl Rove said to reporters, you might want to get in touch with the FBI — they could use your help. :)
“They won’t do any kind of an internal investigation, as President Bush said they would, anymore than OJ Simpson is out looking for “the real killer.” ”
Great analogy. Push it in the blogosphere.
re JY’s lame repetition of Neocon spin: “He didn’t /She wasn’t /Hence, no ”
Parsing didn’t work too well for Clinton either.