Del. Chris Saxman (R-Staunton) is stepping down, Jeff Mellott writes for the Daily News Record. For an incumbent to step down in July of an election year is extraordinary, so the reasons provided by Mellott (“to follow other pursuits”) don’t really hold water. That’s particularly true in that Saxman has an opponent, in the form of Democrat Erik Curren. Though I think Curren’s a perfectly nice guy, I can’t see that he’d have had much of a chance. Now he’s the only guy in the race, until Republicans nominate an emergency candidate, at which time Curren will likely remain the default frontrunner.
There’s certainly a bigger story here, though I wouldn’t venture to guess what it is.
The base note of this story is the hyper-confidence of Virginia Republicans in their Valley stronghold. Saxman has grown to a handsome nice size and is prepared for transplant – the Norquist/Exxon Con Hybrid. A new seed will be planted, and a rich layer of fertilizer laid on – certain to gain strong growth.
Wanna stop the cycle? Go after the seeds.
All will be made clear at noon. I hope.
Bubby, go after the seeds? Hope you’re not advocating targeting activists and Young/College Republicans.
People never want to take politicians at face value (for good reason). However, in this case, what you see is what you get. Between family, work and other projects, Chris had decided he can serve outside the HOD better than inside the HOD.
As for his replacement, I am confident the voters of the 20th will be pleased. Calling Curren the frontrunner is a little laughable. Remember this district is 60%+ R and even Gilmore almost won it. Curren has no money and no Democratic base. This is still a safe R seat but the loss of Saxman can’t be overstated.
The time for that decision was months ago. Clearly something has changed, something unanticipated. The economy sucks—maybe business is down, and he’s got to focus on that to put food on the table and keep a roof over his family’s head. That’s certainly plausible and reasonable (something many people can relate to). Maybe it’s a developing scandal. I have no idea. But there’s just no way that an incumbent legislator up and decides in July that he’s not going to run for reelection without something significant having changed.
It depends utterly on the replacement. If a vetted candidate is lined up, and Saxman gives all of his money to that candidate, then they’re in great shape. But if this is just some dude starting without a penny or experience, then Curran’s got a months-long head start, and that counts for a lot. With Saxman stepping down, I guarantee you that the DPVA smells blood in the water—with anything less than a top-notch Republican candidate (SWACtivists need not apply), we may see a lot of money coming into this race.
No Jason, I was not referring to “young/college republicans”. They are irrelevant. In the Valley, the Republican base is old, and white. And their activists are crazy, white, and shunned…even by the Party leadership.
“doesn’t really hold water”
Pun intentional? (Saxman’s background…)
Accidental, though I’d love to take the credit. :)
Waldo – We’ll see. All I’ll say is I’ll be STUNNED if the 20th makes any “races to watch” lists come October/November.
As for the reasons, if you know Chris you’d know you should take his words at face value. I assume you don’t know him so your skepticism is to be expected.
“if you know Chris you’d know you should take his words at face value.”
I’ve met Saxman. He seems like a pretty genuine, down-to-earth guy. I hope it’s not a health issue. Although from a report it appears he’s going to “devote himself to two nonprofit, bipartisan ventures he will announce shortly.”
This article’s conclusion that Bell IS the nominee is a little premature but…
http://www.dnronline.com/news_details.php?AID=39276&CHID=1