I have long wished that legislators would get in the habit of making friendly bets about the outcome of their bills. Legislator A says that if this bill passes, the state’s revenue will drop by $10M next year. Legislator B says it’ll be $2M at the most. Well, then they should place a public bet on it — the loser has to shave his head or donate $100 to the charity of the other guy’s choice or whatever. In today’s New York Times, John Tierney writes about one of my favorite organizations, Long Bets, which oversees such long-term gambles, explaining that such public bets on weighty matters “stimulate public debate, focus the issue and discipline prophets.” Some of the bets tracked by the website have a duration as little as two years, some extend a century and a half. Here’s hoping we’ll see some Virginia lawmakers making some shorter-term bets — say, 1-3 years — real soon now.
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You might find an econlog article of interest on this topic. A bet is a sure way to move people toward rational ground.
That is interesting — thanks Duane.
This would be much preferred to say, the current practice of making 6 month bets on Iraq, to be paid with the lives of American soldiers . . .