Election forecasts?

Does anybody care to make some predictions about tomorrow? In the Webb/Allen race, who will win and by what margin? In the congressional races around the state, who will win and by what margin? Will Democrats take back either the House or the Senate? How will turnout be in Virginia, what with the lousy weather forecast, and will the weather suppress the Democratic vote or the Republican vote more?

I get awfully tired of election predictions in which Republicans predict victory by healthy margins for every Republican that they care to name — ditto for Democrats. So bonus points will be awarded to anybody forecasting victories by candidates who are in the party that they oppose.

Oh, and, please, no last-minute accusations against either Sen. Allen or Jim Webb. It’s the day before the elections. I’ve heard bits of negative information about Sen. Allen today that I’d jump on, were it a week ago, but it’s not fair at this point.

Published by Waldo Jaquith

Waldo Jaquith (JAKE-with) is an open government technologist who lives near Char­lottes­­ville, VA, USA. more »

25 replies on “Election forecasts?”

  1. “but it’s not fair at this point.”

    In the last week you’ve posted uncorroborated allegations that Allen was a wife-beater, a wife-spitter, and a klansman, so I don’t think holding your fire on the day before the election makes you some sort of champion for fairness. But I digress.

    Allen 51 Webb 48

    Goode 58 Weed 42

    House GOP 213
    House Dem 222

    Senate GOP 52
    Senate Dem 48

    Note that for simplicity, I count Sanders, Lieberman, and the senator from Vermont for whom I have too much contempt to name as Dems.

  2. Who said I’m a champion for fairness? I said only that it’s not fair at this point. If you disagree — and enough Republicans also disagree — then I’ll go ahead and post ’em, I guess.

  3. Webb beats Allen with a 4 point spread. Al Weed gets trounced by Goode again in the 5th District and doesn’t even crack 40%. Frank Wolf wins his race in the 10th but Drake is edged out by Kellam in Va Beach. Net pickup of 6 Senate seats for the Democrats. The Republicans will not pick up a single Senate, House or Governor’s race as a consolation prize.

    No predictions for the overall House margin except to say that the Dems will take control.

  4. Allen by 4
    Goode by 8
    Both house and senate go democratic.
    house + 28
    Senate could also be 50 republicans
    49 + 1 Democrats with a whole lot of Cheney tie breaking.
    Lieberman could become the belle of the ball.

  5. Allen goes down by 2

    Goode wins by god knows how much.

    Senate just barley flips D. Tester kicks ass!!!

    House flips D, somewhere between 15 and 20

  6. Webb 52
    Allen 47
    Parker 1

    Goode 62
    Weed 38

    Kellam 51
    Drake 49

    Wolf 53
    Feder 47


    Democrats 223
    Republicans 212


    Democrats 51 (Lieberman & Sanders counted as Democratic seats)
    Republicans 49

  7. Webb 50.5%, Allen 49%, Parker 0.5%

    House: Democrats 220, Republicans 215

    Senate: 50/50 tie even with Lieberman & Sanders going with Democrats, Cheney breaks the tie.

  8. 52 Webb 47 Allen

    58 Goode 42 Weed

    50 Yes 50 No – RECOUNT :-) Just Kidding I think its more like 53 Yes 47 No.

  9. Burckard owns Forbes 80:20! You heard it hear first!

    (+2 points if you’ve heard/read Burckard’s name before just now)
    (+4 points if you can name a stance of his other than mass transit)

  10. Hmm…

    Webb over Allen by 1.5%

    Weed nets somewhere between 35-38.

    All Virginia house incumbents win, including the Drake/Feder/Kellam races, though I believe Kellam will be within 1%.

    Voters favor Amendment 1 by a 51-49 margin.

    Senate ends in 50/50 tie, with RI, VA, OH, PA, MT being pickups.

    New house 230-205 Dem.

  11. Webb 54
    Allen 45
    Parker 1

    Goode 58
    Weed 42

    Kellam only D challenger to win in house race, 51-49

    Jon Tester wins
    Larry Grant (ID-01) wins
    Lamont wins by 43.5 – 42, Schlessinger 14.5
    Corker wins by 52-47

    Senate – 51-47-2 Dems win majority (Chaffee loses)
    House – 225-210 Dem majority

    Shocker pick: Angie Paccionne (CO) over M. Musgrave 51-49 (Virgil’s buddy)
    Gary Trauner (WY-AL) over Cubin (batshit crazy)

  12. Webb, 52 (Webb takes 9th District)
    Allen, 47
    Parker, 1

    Goode 56, Weed, 43, Oddo, 1

    Amendment 1, fails

    D – 235
    R – 200

  13. Webb 51% Allen 48%

    Drake 50% Kellam 50%, with Drake winning.

    Feder 51% Wolf 50%

    Goode 55% Weed 45%

    Dems pick up 24 seats in the House
    Dems pick up 5 seats in the Senate, lose Missouri in a recount

  14. I believe my Washington Post entry ended up with 249 Democrats in the House. I listed a number of Democrats losing: Mollohan, Marshall, Carson.

    I believe Webb will win 50.5% – 48.7%. I believe he may lose the women’s vote.

    I would love to see Kellam win.

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