U.S. Senate Democratic nominee candidates Jim Webb and Harris Miller are two very different candidates. Each man’s greatest strength is the other’s greatest weakness: Webb is a strong candidate with a weak campaign, while Miller is a weak candidate with a strong campaign.
Webb is, on paper, a great candidate. I’m not sure I could concoct a better hypothetical candidate to go up against Sen. George Allen. He’s a decorated veteran, a centrist, a journalist, a novelist, and as a former Secretary of the Navy, he’s precisely what Oceana needs. When he walks into a room, he’s clearly in charge. He’s a strong, clear speaker. He does not pander to his audiences.
But his campaign is not good. His fundraising has been lackluster, which is the kindest word that I can summon. I’ve never, ever seen a Webb campaign sign. I’ve never heard a Webb radio ad. I’ve never seen a Webb TV ad. We poll volunteers didn’t receive any Webb materials to use to promote his campaign until a small stack of cards were distributed at 8pm last night — and they don’t actually say anything about the man. Despite repeated efforts, I only managed to see him on the campaign trail once. (And he was a half hour late.) His campaign barely intersects with my world. I speculate that these campaign problems are, at least in part, a byproduct of the candidate’s military background — it must be quite difficult to be the campaign manager for Jim Webb, given that he is surely not a man accustomed to taking orders, or even having his own orders questioned.
Harris Miller, on the other hand, has nothing inspiring on his resume. There are no particular negatives in it (I can’t see the problem with his having been a lobbyist), but there’s nothing about the man to get a hold of. He’s not a veteran, a novelist or a journalist. He’s won neither a Purple Heart nor an Emmy. None of this is to say he’s not qualified for the job — he has experience on Capitol Hill, and he’s familiar with many of the issues likely to face him as a U.S. Senator. His only real angle is that he’s a long-time party insider, something that will serve him well in today’s low-turnout primary. He’s not a bad speaker, but he’s not particularly engaging, either. His treatment of Sen. Allen can be rather harsh — the first time I saw him speak, I bristled a bit at what I perceived as insufficient respect befitting the office, no matter how much I dislike “Senator Spitcup,” as the late great Ham Caldwell called him. The base liked it, though, and that’s how one goes about getting the nomination.
Where Harris Miller really shines is with his campaign. If the Miller campaign has done a single substantive thing wrong, I haven’t noticed. We’ve gotten no shortage of Miller materials for the polling places today. I’m drowning in Miller robocalls. If I’ve gotten one Miller mailer, I’ve gotten three dozen. I’ve had a half dozen opportunities to see him speak, which I’ve done three times now. At his request, we sat down and talked for nearly an hour early this year. Nearly every party insider and longtime Democratic committee member that I know supports him. His fundraising is head-and-shoulders above the Webb campaigns, whether or not you’re including the million dollars of his own money that he put into the kitty. Not only does this indicate that Miller knows how to pick professionals on whom he can rely, but that he knows how to lead and, when necessary, be led. It’s a very well run campaign.
It must be mentioned, too, that some of Webb’s supporters have done their candidate a disservice with the vociferousness of their opposition to Harris Miller. Were I to believe everything I have been told about Miller, I’d be forced to conclude that he routinely eviscerates live puppies, just for the joy of it. That he once tossed a grenade into a U.S. Army mess tent in Kabul. And that he has personally fired thousands of Americans workers and replaced them with well-trained Bangladeshi donkeys. There is much that Miller has advocated in his professional capacity that I disagree with strongly, that has even made me angry. But the asymmetrical ferocity with which some of Webb’s supporters have gone after Miller for these offenses has left me sympathizing with him, to my surprise. (Much as Miller’s attacks on Sen. Allen left me sympathizing with him.) It may not be fair for me to fault Webb for the actions of his supporters, but after enduring weeks of this unpleasantness, I cannot help but do so.
The question that has to be asked — the question that all informed Democrats voting today are surely asking themselves — is this: Do I want a great candidate or a great campaign? The choice, I believe, is binary.
A quick question for you, Waldo. After reading through all of Miller’s mailings, after all the robocalls, which of the following words do you think best represents Jim Webb: sexist? racist? Republican? Oh, and then there were the charges of anti-Semitism that first came from Harris Miller blogger, Alice Marshall, before she recanted, but subsequently made the leap to national headlines. That’s right, after originating from Miller sources, it was implied that a War Hero, Bestselling Author, Navy Secretary, Emmy Award Winning Journalist, and Statesman Jim Webb consciously sat down and thought it would be a good idea to play on the fact that he just flat out hates jews. Miller recanted but that genie got out of the bottle bigtime.
Poor, Poor, Harris Miller. Somehow, after enduring charges of racism, sexism and anti-Semitism, I’m finding sympathy hard to come by with Harris.
As for this:
A quick stroll down George Loper’s recent postings shows a who’s who of C’ville Dems supporting Webb, including Nancy Damon, Lloyd Snook, Michael Pudhorodsky, Paul Gaston. Even David Repass called a Miller mailing “misleading“. Miller endorsements are notably absent from that list.
Not your best, Waldo.
I’ll be OVERJOYED TO HAVE THIS ACRIMONY FINISHED.
BTW, I will support the nominee
Don’t listen to Josh. This may have been the best post I have read yet concerning the primary. It gives a fair comparison of both candidates, noticing the strengths and weaknesses of both. I’m certainly not very high on either candidate, but I don’t feel like this is some sort of teacher’s report that is noting a student’s failing marks or status as teacher’s pet. If only more debates and campaigns were like this, then elections would probably be enjoyable; even in loss, we’d feel far less ill will.
I share your concerns about the operations of the Webb campaign but campaigns can be fixed, candidates cannot.
Ultimately, in order to be successful, you’ve got to have a good product to sell. Jim Webb,, as you point out, is a very appealing “product”. Harris Miller — well, let’s just say he’s not as marketable.
Should Webb win, I know of many prominent Webb supporters who will insist on changes within the campaign structure.
The question for me, more than who bashed who about what when or who’s the REAL Democrat, is who can beat Cowboy George in November.
Harris Miller is utterly unelectable in a general election. I’ll support him because he and I see eye to eye on a lot of issues (and he’s not George Allen), but I don’t think he’s got a snowball’s chance in hell. I simply can’t see Democrats in Southwest Virginia supporting Miller at all (Page County Dems for Miller? Not likely.), and he probably won’t attract many crossover Republicans or even independents to his campaign. He’s a wealthy, Northern Virginia lobbyist (In voter’s minds, this IS a liability. The word “lobbyist” has a very negative connotation right now.) In a state where NOVA represents an entirely different culture than the remainder of the electorate, such a NOVA/Washington insider won’t be able to identify with rural voters in any way.
Jim Webb, frankly, can. Don’t believe that Webb’s campaign is dead, they’ve got good people running the show. Maybe in Charlottesville there aren’t Webb signs, but in Richmond, Webb signs most likely outnumber Miller signs. At my polling place, when I left, there were about 10 Webb signs and 0 Miller signs.
I, too, will be glad this is all over, but I hope that Virginia Democrats don’t suffer too much from primary syndrome and elect the unelectable candidate.
You Rock Janis!
I think that it’s going to come down to Democrats having to choose between party beliefs or electability. Miller appeals to the base and seems to be better aligned with core beliefs of the party. Webb oppossed the Iraq war and… ? But he’s ELECTABLE! How much are Dems willing to sacrifice for the sake of supposed victory?
I’m afraid that this blog entry doesn’t address the veracity of either candidate’s claims, merely the effectiveness of their respective strengths and weaknesses.
I would never claim that no insider or committee member supports Webb. Clearly that would be wrong. But of the many dozens with whom I’ve discussed this campaign, there is simply overwhelming support for Harris Miller. I was pretty surprised when, a few weeks ago, I first discovered this. I’d assumed that it was divided evenly, or perhaps that there was a small Webb advantage. I assumed wrongly.
Excellent post, Waldo. One of the best I’ve read here, about this primary or anything else.
Allen should handily (by 10 points or more) beat either one, but a win against Webb is far preferable. That race would get a great deal more press, and Allen will look presidential on a stage next to him. Webb has more than a few Howard Dean Scream moments just itching to come out, and his pitiful campaign and fundraising skills don’t bode well. A Webb candidacy will also keep many Democrats at home in November, while Miller would have an easier time trying to ride the Warner-Kaine wave.
Off to vote! :-)
Waldo, of all your posts, this was perhaps one of your finest as far as political commentary. You were very fair and gave about as accurate assesment of the state of both campaigns as I have seen.
I have said for a long time that I thought Miller had the edge because a) he’s more in line with the views and policy positions of the Democratic base and b) Webb, having never been in or around campaigns before, will run a bad race, not take orders or directions and fail to raise money.
I actually think Allen would prefer Webb in the fall; defeating Miller by 10 points will do nothing for his presidential run. Defeating Webb by 10 points in the fall, a former Navy Secretary with national endorsements, will give him “credibility” for a national run.
As far as the post that stated “Don’t believe that Webb’s campaign is dead, they’ve got good people running the show.” Apparently the “good people” they have running the show forgot to tell Webb that when Chris Matthews asks you if you would support Mark Warner for President, the single most popular Democrat elected official in Virginia the last twenty years, you say YES.
That moment alone told me Webb wasn’t ready for primetime.
Thanks for another excellent post, Waldo. Your consistency and professionalism are what keeps me coming back here every day.
Whomever wins this primary, I hope the two campaigns can get it together and lend each other their strengths right away.
While I take issue with a couple of points on this post, I agree that it’s among the best written on the campaign and one of the most fair.
Thank you, Josh and Scott — that’s kind of each of you to say.
I’ve been thinking about this post for the past week, something that most of my fervent peckings do not benefit from. I intend to move to writing less about politics, though by “less” I mean “more”—less words and posts, but putting more thought into each.
One last point. While I fault Miller on a number of points, I can’t possibly fault his work ethic. That man’s been working full-time, dead out, non-stop since February. That says a lot.
I think I’ll join you in your plan to write less (frequent)/more (quality) posts in the future. Regardless of the outcome of this primary, I think I’m going to take a pretty solid break from blogging. Maybe only posting one, well considered piece a week from now until Labor Day, at least.
Eventually we’ll all become Conaway Haskins. ;)
We should all be so lucky!
“The question that has to be asked — the question that all informed Democrats voting today are surely asking themselves — is this: Do I want a great candidate or a great campaign? The choice, I believe, is binary. ”
Remember the Kaine campaign early last year? Campaigns can be fixed – candidates cannot.
I like your analysis Waldo. I think its fair to both candidates. I voted for Webb this morning, but if he wins I want to see some serious structural changes in his campaign.
Paul, tj, you’re both absolutely right.
I voted for Miller this morning.
Ultimately, and in addition to everything else, I finally disagreed with the assessment that Webb’s a better candidate.
Biography isn’t everything. It counts for something, and certainly for that something Webb wins, but it’s overwhelmingly beat out by work ethic, willingness and ability to do what’s necessary as a candidate (be a “good candidate” in non-resumet ways), fundraising capacity, and at least enough familiarity with the major issues of they day to answer in a more substantive way than Webb has shown on any single policy issue.
Webb has a better resume, but Miller is a better candidate.
Can anyone point to a candidate for statewide or federal office who’s won entirely – ENTIRELY, as Webb would need to do – on the strength of his or her resume?
Either candidate will be squished like a bug by Allen – those who claim that Webb has a chance, even a better chance than Miller, are kidding themselves (or delusional). All available polling shows that they’ll get squished by the same margin.
I didn’t see the Hardball episode with this exchange. But depending on just how the question was phrased, I can’t see why Webb should be required to say “yes”. If it was “Would Mark Warner make a good president?” that’s one thing; if it was literally “Would you support MW for president”, which could be construed as “Is Mark Warner your preferred candidate”, then why should Webb be obligated (politically or otherwise) to say yes? I’d rather see Webb responding with the truth than with the politically calculated message.
Waldo,
Your analysis is sharp. It gathered and summed up the dilemma Virginia Democrats must wrestle with today. It also underlined an age-old problem with democracy — having to choose from an assortment of flawed candidates. Not many perfect candidates come along in the real world.
If we must make a choice between a trio of hopefuls — one with good problem-solving political skills, one who is the truth-telling reformer, or one who sets a shining example of how best to live one’s life — what’s really best in the long run?
Thanks, Waldo. This is almost exactly the way I’ve felt about the race. One additional point — even if Webb is more likely to beat Allen (which I’m not convinced of, considering campaign and candidate), neither one is likely to win, if we’re being realistic. It’s an incumbent senator, so it’s a longshot. And if they don’t win, which one is going to bring people into the party who are more likely to stay, especially if the candidate comes in for criticism afterwards? I don’t know the answer to that.
And I certainly agree that Webb’s online supporters have done a great deal to turn me off on the race. (The ones I’ve met in person have been fine.)
I haven’t voted yet. I’ll make a choice, and I’ll work for whoever wins, but I’m not enthusiastic about it. I hope whoever wins is prepared to do something about that.
Great work, Waldo. A remarkable summary of this election.
I voted for Miller early this morning because of three things: (1) I like his positions and the thought behind them, (2) I like his work ethic and am probably the only Virginian that thinks he would actually be the stronger candidate as a result, and (3) the involvement of the DSSC in this primary. And probably not in that order since the DSSC action is way out of line.
Based solely on what I observed at the polling place, this appears to be a very close election.
“And I certainly agree that Webb’s online supporters have done a great deal to turn me off on the race. (The ones I’ve met in person have been fine.)”
Imagine if we hadn’t fervently bashed Harris Miller! You wouldn’t have that bitter undecided taste in your mouth…you’d think he was a perfect democrat and that Webb was a republican.
Beautifully written as always, Waldo. I was surprised that the candidate that was up on TV lost the primary by 6%. What was it that galvanized voters to choose Webb who didn’t do as many radio ads or direct mail pieces? My personal theory is its just his biography alone that did it. Once people read about him they were galvanized into voting for him. Being an Alpha male helps.
You’re right — that really may have a lot to do with it.