The Webb campaign just sent out a rather hysterical press release entitled “MILLER GIVES OFFICIAL NOTICE HE IS TRYING TO BUY THIS ELECTION,” accompanied by a copy of FEC Form 10, a McCain-Feingold declaration that triggers what’s known as “The Millionares’ Amendment.” It basically allows opponents of wealthy, self-financed candidates to eliminate the $2,100/person fundraising limit, as Webb can presumably now do.
I can understand that the Webb campaign sees this as something they’d like to leverage against Harris Miller. There’s nothing wrong with that. But it’s worth reminding fellow Democrats that our own Mark Warner bought his governor’s seat in the same manner.
Warner outspent Mark Earley by a whopping $20M-$11M in order to secure a 5.2% win. How’d he get all that money? It didn’t help that he gave his campaign $3.85M in cash in October alone, and covered over $850k in campaign costs like salaries and travel expenses. That’s not a criticism. God bless Mark Warner for putting $4.7M into his own race. Warner was clearly one of the finest governors that Virginia has had for a long time. Had he not been able to substantially self-finance, I can’t see that he’d have been elected.
Just as an important strategic consideration in supporting Jim Webb is that he’s likely better ideologically positioned to garner support from centrists and Republicans, a factor that weighs in Harris Miller’s support is that he appears to have substantial personal financial resources, perhaps enough to go toe-to-toe with Sen. George Allen. That’s not something to criticize Miller for — that’s something to praise him for.
If Miller decided this late to trigger the Millionaires Amendment, it looks very much like his camapign is trailing badly and needs a last minute push. Not a sign of strength in a campaign this late in the ball game.
Or, to play devil’s advocate, he wanted to give Webb as little time as possible to raise money from donors who’d already hit the $2,100 limit. So he ordered lots of TV and radio ads, delaying the payment date as long as they’d let him, in order to facilitate springing that surprise on the Webb campaign.
Good point Waldo. Still, if Miller was really confident that he was ahead, I don’t think he would have considered pumping such as huge amount like he is doing now and barely 4 days to go.
So my best guess is Miller is trailing and trailing badly.
Short answer? Yes, it’s bad. Miller is going to use his money to continue pouring slime on Jim Webb, accusing him of anti-Semitism, racism, and anything else he can think of. It’s disgraceful, and should be condemned by everyone. Why are you defending this, Waldo, instead of getting out there and working to elect Jim Webb?
Yes Waldo, you must be a bad, bad person for defending Harris Miller. How dare you point out something that not one Democrat had an issue with when Gov. Warner did it.
I’m surprised how easy it is to demonize self-financers. The question is: Would you rather have a candidate who “buys” the election with his own money? Or would you rather have a candidate who is “bought” by special interests?
Are the two mutually exclusive? Though, to be fair, Webb is yet to provide any campaign materials to Albemarle County, which makes it tough to help.
Thanks for a being an honest voice of reason, Waldo. There seem to be very few on the left side of the blogosphere these days.
I’m happy that waldo’s keeping his own counsel on this, and it’s a good point. What you miss is the fact that Harris Miller is no Mark Warner, no matter how many times he claims it. Miller just doesn’t have enough money to overcome his shortcomings as a candidate.
Speaking of slime, when has Miller dropped “anti-semitism” or racism on Webb?
No one should be shocked by this. Miller’s deep pockets have always been a factor and are one of the reasons why he’d be able to give Allen a good run for his money. Literally.
Miller’s public disclosure statments puts his net worth at no more than $6 million. Less the $1 million he has spent the last couple of months leave him at $5 million which I serously doubt he plans to put into a general election (even it that entire $5 million is in liquid assets).
So let’s be generous with Miller’s bucks and say he puts 60% of what he’s got left — $3 million — into a general. Sorry, but that’s just not gonna cut it in in an election against Allen.
The comparison with Warner, therefore, has no merit as Warner could easly self fund his campaign since the $200 million net worth he had in 2001 drawfs (by 40 times) Miller’s remaining assets today.
Of course the comparison with Warner has merit — they’re both wealthy, and they both pumped a great deal of their personal fortunes into their respective races as the last minute. I believe what you mean is that Miller has significantly less money than Warner, and likely cannot self-finance to the same extent.
If the Senate race costs the same as the 2001 governor’s race — and I really can’t even speculate on how the two will compare — then, quite right, we really can’t expect Miller to spend $4.7M of his $6M on his Senate race. I have to wonder how much he would spend in the general election.
With just a few days left in the race, you gotta do what you gotta do. And given the precedent of Warner, I think Miller is right on track. Thanks for being the voice of reason, Waldo.
Warner had a much stronger candidacy based on his leadership, experience, and lack of strong negatives. Warner is telegenic and never made enemies of core Democratic constituent groups the way that Miller has.
In the primary, Miller has money and his past party work on his side. Both of those will be negated against Allen. Miller just doesn’t have ENOUGH money to compensate for his other failings.
Josh, Miller may have very many failings as a candidate, but I think Waldo’s point is (and I agree with it) that self-financing is not one of them. If he’s willing to burn through his own money to pursue this race, so be it. There’s nothing inherently unethical or wrong in spending your own money to promote yourself.
What is far more worrisome is a candidate who is completely dependent on big donations from lobbyists, etc. I’m not saying that’s the case with Webb — has he filed his finance report yet? It seems likely that his campaign will have been supported by many small donors, which is great.
But all the screeching about Miller trying to “buy the election” is way off the mark. Didn’t John Kerry loan himself millions of dollars in order to compete with Howard Dean’s people-powered campaign? I don’t remember the Democratic Party complaining about that, then. (Okay, as a Dean supporter, I grumbled a bit.) Everyone was DELIGHTED that Mark Warner could self-finance. So crying foul now on Miller doesn’t seem fair at all.
Waldo –
I think we are in general agreement here.
My point is that a General Election against Allen will cost at least $20 million and Harris is simply not in a personal position to fund NEARLY that amount. A lot all folks are under the false impression — much is conveyed by Miller himself and, curiously, much by pro-Webb blog community — that Miller has Warner-like personal bucks to entirely fund a campaign, something which is simply not the case.
To say that Miller’s decision to put some money of his own into the nomination is a sign of weakness is just nuts.
First, no one has the foggiest idea of how this thing is going, though I have a gut feeling that Miller is likely to win the nomination (and I say this as one who has endorsed Webb). So to say that Miller must be “trailing and trailing badly” is just hype. It is at least as likely that Miller said to himself, “Gee — things are going pretty well, and I’m psyched enough that I am going to put in an extra $XXX.”
Lloyd Snook —-
“It is at least as likely that Miller said to himself, “Gee — things are going pretty well, and I’m psyched enough that I am going to put in an extra $XXX.”
Please. Who wants to freely burn their moneyjust for the fun of doing so. Miller must be losing and he knows it.
brianna,
Why spend all your money if you know you are going to lose?
Why not, instead use the momentum of the primary to generate press, get on the tube, and “touch” a lot of voters?
Because, guess what, if this was an election that only involved bloggers, Webb would win, but the general dem population is very much being swayed by Miller’s TV and mailer blitz.
Who knows how this is turning out. has anyone heard of any polls?
I am voting Webb, and trying to get as many as I can to do the same.
I am just watching this crazyness and have several observations.
Raising Kaine has ruined itself as ever being thought of as a rational blog. They are so far over the top that noone including many Webb people respect their views anymore. I have talked to at least a dozen Webb supporters who have stopped reading it because of their tone.
Webb has made several critical errors and he needs his brain trust to work wonders between now and Tuesday to get the numbers they are predicing and maybe to even win. (Novak says Miller and he only missed one a week ago.)
Webb’s statements about Miller being an Anti-Christ, about African-Americans deserving priorities in affirmative action (did he forget women, Native-Americans etc.-the Democatric party coilition), his statement on illegal immigration, and his I haven’t made up my mind statement on Warner/Clinton(don’t think Warner is laughing about it Lowell) have shown he just isn’t ready for prime time or his brain trust just can’t prep him.
This is going to be a very very low turnout election in most of Virginia- no signage or real work by either side in most of it. I don’t think either campaign can honestly tell you where they are.
Webb’s internet army has raised almost no money and he -who does have a fair amount- has not been willing to place a bet on himself as Miller has. (Waldo notes what Warner spent in his gubernatorial race- actually there was more- but no note is made of the millions he spent running against John Warner) What will be interesting will be to see where the money goes and noone will know until a month from now. Where is that Webb finance report anyway ? His brain trust has let him down on this.
Miller has made his mistakes also, but not as glaring and his partisans have not been as strident which probably helps him.
If Miller wins, the DSCC and those over the top blogs will look very weak and may look so if Webb doesn’t get the 60-65% they have predicted.
I will know Tuesday morning before noon I think. One will be able to know by looking at GOTV activities all over VA and who is making that happen. In a small turnout election, it will be the key. Best of luck to both as I think they both are much better than many of those pushing them. They both deserve better than some of the blogosphere has given them for putting themselves out to run for public office. Those who want to slam either need to look within and ask if they would like to be treated in a similar manner.
My take, for what it is worth are that:
1. Not really comparable, the Warner election and Miller’s primary. Miller has to follow federal election guidelines and Warner did not.
2. I do not see it as an advantage if Miller triggers the Millionaire’s amendment for Allen and Allen is able to raise unlimited sums from donors in a Senate account that can be transferred to a Presidential run.
“Just watching” makes some interesting points. especially about the Raising Kaine site . . . even for a Webb supporter, like myself, they are hard to stomach. Maybe after all this is done they will calm down.
It is also interesting to note that Webb supporters are complaining about the negativity of the Miller campaign . . . they themselves had heated things up way before any fliers where sent out.
I think this is more evidence of the blogs distorting the reality that us blog-readers perceive. If you had only read the blogs you would think that Miller did not stand a chance . . . I suppose that is changing.
But on the other-side of the coin, I would like to challenge the idea that that self-financing is a good thing just because Mark Warner did it–I really do not know.
I wonder if Warner had not self-financed, what would have happened?
He would have had to find that money from donors, like Tim Kaine had to do. Would that have been so bad, would it have been impossible for him to win with out that extra 4 million or so?
its clearly wrong to self-finance. Its also wrong to get money from lobbyists, who are unalloyed evil.
The only proper soruces of money are net roots donations, preferable attained with the help of groups financed by George Soros.
If that meme can be established, it will go a long way toward purging the Democratic party.