“Why Virginia’s Republican Party is on the verge of a meltdown.”

Via Norm Leahy I see that Richmond’s Style Weekly has a feature story entitled “Fight for the Right: Why Virginia’s Republican Party is on the verge of a meltdown.” Authors Jason Roop and Scott Bass don’t offer any information that will come as news to the sort of people who read Virginia political blogs (that is, you), but this is the sort of lengthy analysis that doesn’t appear much in the Virginia press. There aren’t many media outlets willing to devote the column inches to it.

What strikes me as particularly bizarre is that the division in the RPV is so wide and so bitter, yet so many Republicans continue to loudly insist that there is no division in the party. It’s the pair of elephants in the living room that they won’t acknowledge. They’re not fooling anybody else, of course.

The budget dispute right now isn’t a Republican/Democratic dispute. It’s Republicans vs. Republicans, the grown-ups versus the kids. The more that Republicans in the House dig in their heels, the more that they prove to Virginians that they’re not fit to lead. It doesn’t matter if they’re right or wrong about funding transportation, the narrative has been written: Their opposition is bull-headed idealism, they’re the party of “no,” they’re more interested in brochure bills than offering any real leadership to Virginia.

Virginia is a conservative state, not a radical state. On the seven-point ideological scale, it’s probably about a 5 — just barely right of center. Statewide, on average, whoever is closer to 5 wins. On that scale House Republicans are about an eight at this point. Virginia Democrats rank around 3 or 4. So Virginia Democrats win while Virginia Republicans lose.

Republicans need to prepare to fall out of power in the next few years. If they ever want to be in the majority again, they’ll need to purge themselves of the radicals who have taken the reins and start acting responsibly. If they straighten up, they could be back in control by the early ’10s. If they don’t — and I can’t see that they will — they’ll have to wait until Democrats start to get power-hungry and stupid. The good news for Republicans is that I don’t think it’ll take us long.

Published by Waldo Jaquith

Waldo Jaquith (JAKE-with) is an open government technologist who lives near Char­lottes­­ville, VA, USA. more »

15 replies on ““Why Virginia’s Republican Party is on the verge of a meltdown.””

  1. I think further proof that Virginia does not side with extremist (left or right) is the fact that Bush’s approval rating remains in the low 40s and upper 30s(surveyusa) in this state despite winning by a sizable margin.

  2. I disagree.

    I believe Virginia is precisely in the center. The problem is that Democrats have been badly disorganized for the past 15-20 years. This is starting to change and, what is more, Republicans are becoming increasing disorganized as they squabble over power and over the fundemental differences between the pro-business, pro-investment wing and the pro-theocracy Taliban wing.

    The pro-business wing isn’t crazy about taxes, but they understand the need to make investments in education and transportation. The Taliban wing would happily return us to the middle-ages if it meant putting Pat Robertson in charge of everything.

  3. Not Speaker Howell,

    The center has been moving over the last 7 years or so. I suggest that Virginia hasn’t moved much but rather that the rest of the country has taken a little step over such that we are now in the center rather than one point to the right.

  4. And, obviously the center is moving again, as these things always do: back and forth.

    (Hopefully the House GOP, won’t notice this until its too late. Fingers crossed: please santa I’ve been a good boy, I swear!)

    Now, the challenge for the Democrats is to find the message that allows them to both ride the tide, and direct.

    And hope, as Waldo points out, that our boys and girls don’t get too greedy too soon.

  5. “Virginia is a conservative state, not a radical state.”

    Which is more radical, advocating a billion dollar tax increase in the midst of a billion dollar surplus? Or fiscal sanity pointing out that Richmond doesn’t have a revenue problem, it has as a problem with spending prioritization.

    I find it galling that Kaine claims to represent Virginia’s families yet is pushing tax increases that are regressive in nature and would hurt the economically disadvantaged among us.

    Be prepared for a government shut down, and unlike in 1994 when Clinton won political points by saying he was “fighting” to save Medicare and Social Security from the Republican Congress, that dynamic won’t work this time around.

    I’ve talked with several area legislators in Hampton Roads and they simply aren’t seeing constituent calls, letters or pressure to raise taxes for transportation. This isn’t 2004 where we had a popular Governor who had built a reserve of good will and political capital to spend and a serious budget crisis.

    If Kaine shuts down the government to raise taxes in the midst of the largest surplus in state history it could be an enormous political miscalculation that would affect his entire 4 years.

    No governor in our history has ever advocated a tax increase in the midst of a budget surplus.

  6. Which is more radical, advocating a billion dollar tax increase in the midst of a billion dollar surplus? Or fiscal sanity pointing out that Richmond doesn’t have a revenue problem, it has as a problem with spending prioritization.

    The trouble is that you’re not breaking out of the narrative. The narrative right now is that House Republicans are too pig-headed to meet the state’s obligations, and the fact that this spending is necessitated is evidenced by Senate Republicans’ support of that spending.

    It’s not that what you’ve written here isn’t useful or interesting — it is both — but to the majority of Virginia voters, no compelling argument has been made, because it’s coming from a perspective that’s already assumed to be, at best, short-sighted and, at worst, untrustworthy.

    Unless you can find some way to break out of the framework, to say something to disprove this assumption about your perspective, you’re just talking past people.

    (I hope this doesn’t come across as nasty. I’m providing what I honestly believe to be useful advice; it’s the exact same advice that many Republicans provided to Democrats in the months after Kerry lost. It was good advice.)

  7. I don’t find your response nasy, but I try to be a political realist. I knew the Warner tax increase was a political win-win in 2004 because it was a sales tax increase the average voter would not see nor particularly care about while not being progressive in nature which would garner the support of the business community.

    I do think the political risk right now, for both parties, is enormous. The House GOP runs the risk of being seen as obstructionists and do nothings on a transportation problem that is growing out of control. Kaine runs the risk of being known as a Governor who shut down state government in order to raise taxes in the midst of the largest surplus Virginia has ever seen.

    I will admit that the House GOP actually put forth a fairly detailed transportation plan that has some innovative approaches to transportation that is not simply raises taxes.

    Part of my problem is that Kaine has pushed another tax increase that is regressive in nature; which politidcally is smart by insuring support from the business community who would rather force the middle class and the poor pay for roads then a raising the highest marginal tax rate to raise revenue.

    My overwhelming frustration on this whole transportation debate is that so much of the Wilder’s Commission recommendations to restrain wasteful spending in Richmond (to the tune of close to $1 Billion) has been essentially ignored by the State Senate, the media and to a larger extent, the Governor.

    Raising taxes when we have a budget crisis is never attractive, but can be a necessity. However, advocating raising taxes and decrying the need for more money from Virginains (in a regressive tax no less), and at the same time ignoring a Commission headed by a former Democratic Governor and truly great Virginian (Wilder) that has found around $1 Billion of savings for the state is almost unbelievable.

  8. Politicalopinion,

    Since when does Tim Kaine have a vote in either the House or the Senate? It would be different if his party controlled one house or the other, but it doesn’t. It’s a Republican majority that is dictating what the budget and tax structure looks like. So all of your criticisms are essentially sitting squarely on the shoulders of Republicans.

    The funny thing is that Virginia Republicans are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. Back a tax hike to fund transportation and their base will give them the cold shoulder with regard to turnout in ’07. Block spending on transportation and the suddenly-decisive moderate center will see them as wishy-washy obstructionists and elect even more Democrats.

    Meanwhile, the Virginia Democrats’ base is far more forgiving of moderate or even conservative positions in their leaders. The VA Dems have to be the least ideological political party that I’ve ever seen in my life. Look no farther than the liberals’ embrace of James Webb. So Democratic candidates have a lot more wiggle room to get comfortably into the center than their Republican counterparts. All of this pretty well adds up to at least a few more really bad years for the Virginia GOP.

  9. polticalopion

    How long ago was the Wilder report? How much savings has VDOT created since that report? Quite a bit, right? How much waste did Warner trim? I don’t have the time to look it up, but I was very surprised at the numbers.

    And waste management is not a one time deal. You don’t just cut the fat once and walk away; it grows back.
    So, you are never going to reach some magical moment in waste management perfection, where it is ok to raise new revenues under your criteria.

    (And don’t demonize government, it is not alone. I know plenty of businesses that hemorrhage money, and have been for years. )

    Also, you know a couple of years ago we were sold some federal tax cuts based on surpluses . . .yep, then those surpluses disappeared and now China and Saudi Arabia are paying for our Government, for a slight fee of course.

    So basing projects that require long term funding on mercurial surpluses is absolutely ridiculous and reckless. They are here one day and not the next.

    ” force the middle class and the poor pay for roads then a raising the highest marginal tax rate to raise revenue.”

    duh, your side has kind of put is in that spot, hasn’t it?

    Isn’t that one the legs of the Lucky Ducky strategy so famously articulated by the Wall Street Journal? You know, to shift the tax burden and make working class people hate government as much as rich folks supposedly do.

    . . . but, all that being said, we have to pay for these things in some realistic manner.

    Regressive taxes, regressive taxes . . . I know, the lottery! It is a very, very regressive tax on those least among us.

    Do you think it is simply a coincidence that state sponsored gambling, of all things, had a renaissance during the supposed conservative revolution of the last 20 years?

    The states had to try to fix the gigantic holes in their budgets some how.

  10. polticalopion,

    “raising taxes when we have a budget crisis is never attractive, but can be a necessity.”

    In the world of free-market economics, isn’t that the worst time to raise taxes?

    Because if there is a budget crisis it is most likely because the economy is in crisis. Which theoretically can be a bad time to burden it with new taxes.

    Isn’t it better to establish permanent revenue streams when the going is good; and also save money so you can cut taxes for stimulus when the economy is in bad shape?

  11. “In terms of ideology, there are three political parties in Virginia: the Democrats, the Republicans, and the Right-Wingers.”

    Thats a great talking point, a wedge between the House GOPrs, and the rest of the state.

  12. I think you’re probably right about Virginia being around a 5. But I don’t think the 7-point scale really means much in this state. One example of this effect is Virgil Goode, who won the 5th district by about the same margins as a democrat, an independent, and a republican. Now the Kaine-Kilgore election may have been a great example of a 3-4 against a 10, but the smaller the voting district, the less ideological things get.

    Typically, Democrats have relied on superior ideology, and Republicans have won by appearing honest and grounded, and having a damn good GOTV effort. A state that is simply not very ideological will not support candidates who rely mostly on ideology. I think Democratic efforts to rebuild the party infrastructure, along with Republican extremism and a public suffering from outrage-fatigue (over social issues) will turn the tables doubly against the Republicans. Their greatest strength will now be ours, and the appearance of political extremism (which is still the bane of any Democrat) will be theirs.

    Only recently does it seem as if voters have recognized such a thing as being “too conservative.”

  13. I think you’re probably right about Virginia being around a 5. But I don’t think the 7-point scale really means much in this state. One example of this effect is Virgil Goode, who won the 5th district by about the same margins as a democrat, an independent, and a republican.

    Virgil Goode would tell you that he’s been ideologically the same the entire time; it’s the parties that have changed.

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