It has has long been an element of faith among some Charlottesville Democrats (myself included) that, as Charlottesville becomes more expensive and Greene County (over)develops, the conservative population of Greene would be diluted with Democrats fleeing C’ville for more affordable pastures. Del. Rob Bell (R), the junior delegate in the 58th District, has a district that includes a good chunk of Albemarle County and all of Greene County. I maintain that the majority of voters in Greene County would just as soon not pay any taxes — period — so the most sensible way to replace Bell with a Democrat is to wait for a demographic shift. As a resident of Bell’s district, I take a special interest in the matter.
The Census Bureau reports that Greene County is growing at a phenomenal rate — it’s totally unsustainable — 48% from 1990-2000, and 11.7% from 2000-2004. That’s almost 2,000 additional residents in those four years. So does this shift in the past 15 years bode well for Democrats?
Here’s a quick graph of House of Delegates election results from 1995-2005, showing the percentage of the vote gotten by the Democratic candidate(s) in House of Delegates races in Greene in that period.
Click to embiggen.
Note that Greene used to be divided into two districts, and was put wholly in the 58th in 2001, so earlier figures are a compilation of multiple races. Also note that the 2003 figure is an average of 2001 and 2005, because Del. Bell was unchallenged in that year, despite it being his first race as an incumbent, and so there’s no point in putting up that 99% figure.
Clearly, we can see that time is not on Democrats’ side in Greene. Why is the conventional wisdom so wrong?
Quite simply, the new residents are Republicans. As Fluvanna County residents will attest to, Central Virginia is becoming overrun with retirement-age couples from New Jersey and New York. They’re all Republicans. Sure, plenty of people are moving to Greene from Charlottesville, but not nearly enough to make any difference.
Further census data helps to shine some light on the county. As of 2000, Greene is 91% white, 1.6% foreign-born, and only 20% are college graduates, all quite different than the rest of Virginia.
Now, there are 25% more votes in the 58th District in Fluvanna than there are in Greene, and 340% more in Albemarle. Greene is hardly the deciding force in this race. There is no reason why a hypothetical candidate couldn’t win this district while completely ignoring Greene, though it’d be hard. Greene is the spiritual center of this district — any candidate who can sway a majority of voters in Greene, or close to a majority, will likely do well in Albemarle, Fluvanna, and Orange.
It’s time to find a candidate to run against Bell in next year’s race. There’s one key question that we’ll need to ask ourselves when trying to find somebody: Can this guy win Greene? Unfortunately, the answer will be clear in nearly every case: No.
Do we need Greene to win, however? Though Greene is becoming the home to Republicans from elsewhere, Albemarle is becoming the home to elitist Democrats from the North. The growth percentages in Albemarle don’t look as high because our base population is a lot higher to begin with. While Greene added 2,000 in 4 years we (Albemarle) add 2,000 in a typical year. Take a look at the voting patterns of people in areas in Western Albemarle or Keswick, two very wealthy elitist areas. I think the way to beat Bell is to preform extremely well in the Albemarle portion of the district while doing OK (breaking 40%) in Greene, Fluvanna, and Orange. It’s certainly hard to do but very possible.
As I wrote: “Now, there are 25% more votes in the 58th District in Fluvanna than there are in Greene, and 340% more in Albemarle. Greene is hardly the deciding force in this race.”
I’m puzzled by your definition of “elitist” — how is it different than “wealthy”? Western Albemarle isn’t particularly wealthy, at least not that I know of, though Keswick certainly is. As I look over the precinct lists of western Albemarle — Red Hill, Yellow Mountain, Brownsville, Crozet — I’m not seeing a whole lot of money. Some folks in Free Union, yes, and just outside of town in Ivy (though that’s not really western Albemarle), but that’s about it.
But, yes, there’s no reason why a Democrat couldn’t hypothetically win the race in Albemarle only, though I’m not convinced that there are now or soon will be the votes in Albemarle to carry the entire district.
I’m puzzled by your definition of “elitist” — how is it different than “wealthy”?
When I say elitist I’m trying to imply something more than simply being rich. The word “elitist” in political context to me means intellectuals, doctors, and people who generally gain thier wealth from research, education, health care, or just “old money.” I guess the best illustration to show what I mean would be Massachucetts. I would consider them to be elitist as opposed to just wealthy. When I look at those buying these mcmansions in Keswick and Western I get a more elitist vibe than a simple rich, well off, or welathy vibe but then again I maybe wrong.
“But, yes, there’s no reason why a Democrat couldn’t hypothetically win the race in Albemarle only, though I’m not convinced that there are now or soon will be the votes in Albemarle to carry the entire district.”
But look at the 5th district in the Governors race last year. I dont think many people would have expected Kaine to win the district by any margin. I know its best to try to win everywhere but I think its undeniable that a big reason that Kaine pulled off a victory in the 5th district is because he managed to win by such a large margin in the population centers like Albemarle, Charlottesville, and Danville to a lesser extent, etc. while not doing terrible everywhere else. I think if there is some way to repeat that locally then it would be possible to win. Im wondering how things would look if the same people who voted for Kaine voted for Kolezar (sp?)?
I get your point though. I think it will be extremely hard to win Bell’s district for the near future.
I guess I don’t understand the political implications of “elitist.” So somebody is wealthy and they didn’t get it from the lottery — what does that tell us about their voting behavior?
No Republican has been elected to an open seat in the Fifth for many, many decades, if my memory of the district history serves me. It’s a centrist district. Warner won the Fifth by six points.
Wow, we’re being Floridated!
Seriously though — the demographics of recent retirees are what made the 2004 presidental vote in FL nearly a lost cause (at least with Kerry’s bungled campaign) and Ohio the battleground instead. I hope the baby boomers retiring will shift this back in the long run…
Waldo, you may be overlooking another factor: the strength of the Greene County Democratic Committee and whether anyone put any time or effort into Greene.
Look at Harrisonburg: in 2004, Bush beat Kerry convincingly (6,165 to 4,726). In 2005, Lowell Fulk, Tim Kaine and Creigh Deeds all won Harrisonburg, and Leslie Byrne fell 200 votes short.
Did Harrisonburg grow that much in 2005? No, turnout actually dropped. What happened was that Kaine’s campaign targeted Harrisonburg, bringing resources and attention that Kerry’s Virginia people never considered giving us. Boom, victory.
We need to remember that in the case of out-lying communities and counties, there are two waves of growth. The first wave, people fleeing cities and congestion, is usually conservative. We see this in NOVA in the ’80s, Loudon and the “exurbs” in the ’90s. People are looking for space, privacy and lower property taxes. Incomes are mid-to-high.
The second wave, which can come 10-15 years later, is much different. As the area achieves a weight of its own, service businesses come in. People are needed to work at McDonalds, Sheetz and Food Lion. Lower income housing like townhouses is built. Neighborhoods become settled and more suburban. Farmers and landowners look to sell to developers. Suddenly the boom hits, houses are flying up, and we have middle class families moving in with kids, college educated and moderate to Democratic leanings. Roads and schools become key issues, along with growth: how much and what kind.
The question is, what wave is Greene in, and when will it shift? Kaine’s campaign saw that Loudon and other areas like Harrisonburg and Staunton had shifted (Staunton is interesting because there wasn’t a large influx of attention from Richmond, just the local HoD campaign and the local committee – little bit of bias, I worked in Staunton last fall, but those are the facts). Mike Henry saw the opportunity and caught the Republicans with their pants down.
There’s a magical tipping point in terms of population density and income/educational levels that make a locality move from Republican to swing. Just watch Greene’s progress and when you see it, move fast.
Any time that races are looked at in such a manner, important questions — how good campaigns are, how appropriate that candidates are, how decent the party is, etc. — are inherently glossed over. That’s inherent in taking the 30,000 foot view.
Adam,
Kaine won in Staunton because Kilgore was so weak and Warner so strong. Simple as that. I know several folks in the Shenandoah Valley who voted Democrat for governor for the first time in their lives this past November.
Sure, I do too. They keep coming up to me, making sure no one is near, then tell me.
But without “boots on the ground” for candidates, these people might not vote Democratic. It’s not all media.
Why isn’t Greene County more Democratic?
1. It’s where refugees from Albemarle have fled to. There is an interesting phenomenon at work here that is similar to what happened with Prince William and Loudoun Counties. Prince William became more conservative, and Fairfax more liberal, when folks who wanted more government moved into Fairfax and folks who wanted less government moved from Fairfax out to Prince William. What has been happneing recently in Prince William is that Fairfax has gotten so damned expensive that more “good government” people have moved out to Prince William. The same thing is happening in Greene now. I think the old-time Greene County people are actually more moderate than many of the newcomers. And the newcomers aren’t primarily from the north. (One can make that argument in Fluvanna, as Lake Monticello has been sold as a retirement paradise, but not in Greene.)
2. It is hard work to try to organize a rural county politically. Working in the cities is easier. The Greene Democratic Party has not been terribly well organized all the time, though there are some new leaders there who, with support and continued energy, can begin to reverse the trend.
3. The political issues that matter to a rural community are sometimes tough issues for Democrats. For example, civil rights in a county that is overwhelmingly white can be a tough sell. “God, guns and gays” are still good issues for the Republicans in Greene.
So what do we do?
1. Organize.
2. Organize.
3. Organize.
We can’t do anything about the demographic trends, but the Party can contact every newly registered voter. Democrats can knock on doors. Democrats can put up yard signs and see who says, “I like your sign.” Democrats can put on bumper stickers and stick up for Tim Kaine in a discussion at the lunch counter. Democrats can work in small, seemingly non-partisan community groups and say, “we support good government — please come to this meeting to support [fill in the blank — a better school budget, or something].”
Our colleagues in Greene have a difficult job ahead, but “difficult” is not “impossible.”
I’ve often wondered about this. Though I’ve never had any cause to know about them, I’ve never seen any sign of a Greene Democratic Party. I’m glad to know things are changing.
There is a Greene Democrat party and they hold events. Their events tend to be the one upscale restaurant in Stanardsville. The Republicans have an outdoor free pig roast with music in the fall. Guess which attracts more people?
The demographics though are not quite liberal/conservative or party based. Greene county is gaining a huge number of retirees who vote against all spending and taxes. The schools are hurting from this. The candidates who are against spending also tend to be against local land use regulation so Greene gets – yup, more growth and more need for spending.
total frickin mess – but not so much political party based as it is short-sighted self-interest based. Many of the retirees complaining about Greene’s spending and taxes are former government employees. Gee, who paid their salary all those years.
We have experienced the same type of problems over the years in Cumberland. When I moved here in 1984, everyone was so proud of the fact that we had the lowest taxes in the state. It was actually used as a selling point by realtors in the area to retired people who were looking to relocate. Of course, the retirees didn’t have a need for schools and the school administration at that time wasn’t really interested in even maintaining the buildings that were in place. [However, if potential buyers were parents with school-aged children, then the realtors said that they didn’t want to live in this county because of the “poor academic quality” of the schools. Seriously–I heard them talking about it.] So, the annual school budget was a lot lower and pretty much fully funded with few problems. The board of supervisors (who had been in office for many years) lowered taxes again even after I’d been here a few years.
A few years later we got a new board and built a new elementary school. The board was again replace within the last two to three years and lots of things have changed. Now, of course, our schools are doing better academically and require more money to operate. Our assessments and taxes are continuing to rise and people are complaining. Our oldest schools are in bad shape and the board of supervisors is looking to put in a commercial landfill to fund a new building for the middle school and high school. In the meantime, the school system with the blessings of the county board are planning to use their powers of eminent domain to regain the old elementary school that the county had sold to a local realty company’s owners a few years ago for $125,000. The property (buildings and 20 acres) is now assessed by the county at over $600,000 and was supposedly appraised by someone hired by the owners last fall at $1.2 million. People are protesting everything right now (a major one planned for April 1) and it really takes precedence over what is going on anywhere else in the state and in the nation. The local issues overshadow everything.
Getting some of those same people who are upset to attend Democratic Committee events is pretty impossible at times with all the other meetings they are attending (BOS–continued, recessed and regularly scheduled ones; School Board; landfill presentations; public hearings, etc). I can sympathize with Greene–but at least they have an upscale restaurant. : ) We have a pizza place and a country-type diner, if you don’t count the food provided by the service stations in town. The only thing that works in our favor is that the Republicans also have the same problems.
“All politics is local.” – Tip O’Neill
If the division is between no-taxers and pay-for-schools, then get on a side, don’t try to play both. If the division is between uncontrolled growth and managed, limited growth, then get on a side, don’t try to play both.
The people who show up at BoS meetings and planning commission meetings and school board meetings are your activists and your future leaders. Don’t try to win them over talking about civil rights if what they’re passionate about is growth or schools. I mean, they’re already passionate. Just harness it.
And if they’re unsure about working with Democrats, just let them know that “This isn’t your mom’s Democratic party.”
Adam has it totally right. What is happening in Greene is no different than Goochland, Caroline, Powhatan – the first wave of come-heres are more conservative. It’s not like there are tons of multi-family housing to attract the less well to-do. These are anti-taxers who want a single family house.
saywhat is exactly right. There were a decent number of Valley voters who voted dem for the first time in their life to prove a point.
Several delegate candidates told the Kilgore campaign he was doing poorly (for the area) but the campaign paid no attention.
Kaine put resources into HBurg and Staunton and Kilgore didnt.
Simple as that.
Is anyone on the blog old enought to have heard of V. O. Key, much less read his “Southern Politics?”
Greene is home to the “Mountain – Valley” Republican strain. In “The” War they fought for Virginia despite the fact they owned no slaves. Still, they resented the Bourbon Democrats who got them into it. Just as they might be getting over The Late Unplesantness, two other Democrats upset their lives – Harry Byrd, Sr. and FDR. To create the Shenandoah National Park through eminent domain, they seized the farms and homes of countless Greene and Madison residents.
Ever since the Depression, the social strata of Greene vis a vis political parties has been the reverse of much of the US. The more affluent are Democrats, the opposite for Republicans. I did GOP political field work in Greene from 1978 to 1991 for three Republican office holders. Greene was Republican Nirvanna.
I’ve been gone since then and am not aquainted with the new migration demographics. However, I suspect the pattern established in the ’70’s has persisted. As the UVa student body exploded numerically, middle class, single family, owner occupied housing in the city was converted to student, faculty and staff rentals. The refugees – mostly Republican – relocated to Fluvanna and Greene.
Check your history: as late as 1978 Charlottesville had a Republican majority on City Council and what was then called Jefferson Park precinct was solidly Republican.
Now you know why I live in Henrico to make a living as a paid GOP hack. But I do miss Greene County!
Don’t worry, Scott—every political science student still has to read V.O. Key. :)