In today’s Daily Progress, Bob Gibson looks at the latest Kaine/Kilgore poll. The race is essentially unchanged since July — Kilgore and Kaine are tied (within the MoE; Kilgore is ahead 1%). Potts has slipped from 9% to 6%, which has benefited Kilgore slightly, as Potts supporters are largely Republicans. The most interesting bits are that Kilgore continues to have twice as many people rate him unfavorably as Kaine (22% to 11%), that 13% of people remain undecided, and that President Bush’s support of Kilgore hurts him while Governor Warner’s support for Kaine helps him (though the people opposed to Bush and Warner may be folks who would never vote for them, anyhow).
I don’t pretend to have any prognostication skills (eg, “Kilgore 45%, Kaine 48%, Potts 3%”), but if I were in the habit of claiming to have such skills, I would abandon them in the face of such a poll. The morsels that are interesting represent such a tiny number of actual people polled as to make them externally invalid. (Which is a shame, because they tend to benefit Tim Kaine.) This race is neck-and-neck, and unless one of these guys breaks out of his mold, I imagine it will stay that way until November 8.