Survey USA, the only outfit regularly polling on the popularity of governors, has just released their monthly poll results. Virginia Governor Mark Warner is rocketing to the top. He is the second-most popular Democratic governor, second only to West Virginia governor Joe Manchin. His approval rating has climbed 5% in the past month, on top of 8% the month before that, with the same decrease in disapproval in the same period.
The Virginia results are based on a poll of 600 adults, 37% Democrats, 30% Republicans, and 32% independents. (The ideological breakdown matches Virginia’s demographics better.) The Virginia results are based on a poll of 600 adults, 37% Republicans, 30% Democrats, and 32% independents.
If Warner is going to run for president — as it certainly looks like he will — he’s positioning himself to exit his current position at the top of the charts. If Tim Kaine can draft along behind him, all the better.
I agree that Warner is popular, and probably for good reason. But that party breakdown is absurd, and calls into question the results.
(Although, to be honest, I’d say those results are likely accurate).
As for positioning himself at the top of the charts, what that will allow him to do is make his legend grow and grow and GROW among Dems over the next two years as he campaigns for President. “Hey, look at me! I’m a Democrat who won in a red state and my popularity zoomed! Vote for me!”
Frankly, that will be a powerful argument among Democrats who are looking for an “electable” candidate. Without holding elective office in the interim, he can’t do anything to screw up that reputation (which is why he won’t challenge Allen in ’06).
He’s sitting pretty, but I don’t think he’ll get the nomination. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the ticket, however.
One other note:
He’d better not be counting on Kaine to enhance his reputation.
that party breakdown is absurd
Yeh, I that’s why called attention to it. I think the ideological breakdown makes sense, but I don’t get the party breakdown.
When I read the page it shows party composition numbers of GOP 37%, Democrat 30%, Ind 32%.
You are absolutely right, SamAm — looks like I reversed the numbers. That’s a breakdown that makes much more sense. Corrected accordingly!
He doesn’t have ‘it’ yet. Not to say that he couldn’t get ‘it.’ Bill Clinton and Howard Dean are both examples of guys who only got ‘it’ during the early course of the primary while never having shown that marquee level of retail political skill in their previous campaigns.
That’s the main thing that Warner is lacking for a serious Presidential bid. I’m not sure that a campaign for an open White House is really the best opportunity for a guy like that learn along the way and rise to the top. Bill Clinton and Howard Dean both benefited from running in years where there was an encumbant, which tends to discourage the kinds of ‘big dogs’ that would otherwise be in the running and squash guys like them early on.
Lot’s of big dogs are gonna be out there in ’08. A guy like Mark Warner needs to get him some John Edwards charm to go with his resume. Otherwise you’ve got Brian Schweitzer who will be the other white meat with a little more flavor.