In yesterday’s Danville Register-Bee, reporter Ann Anderson wrote about a recent Democratic rally held in Danville to promote John Kerry and congressional candidate Al Weed, in a piece entitled “Local Dems rally voters to the polls.” At one point, Anderson wrote:
After several forums with his opponent, Congressman Virgil Goode, Weed said the voters should be aware of the issues and where each candidate stands.
“This is exactly what we want, the choice has been made clear,” said Weed, who needs 137,000 votes to win the election.
Needs 137,000 votes to win the election? That’s a funny thing, because Rep. Virgil Goode won reelection handily two years ago, with 63.5% of the vote, having received just 95,360 votes. In fact, only 150,233 votes were cast in the election. In 2000, which was a presidential election year, Goode won with 143,312 votes to Democrat John Boyd’s 65,387 votes. While Goode did somewhat better than Ann Anderson’s 137,000 requirement, he could have given up over 40,000 of those votes to Boyd, getting just 104,349, and still have won.
Ms. Anderson has no way of determining what the turnout will be in a week’s time. Al Weed could conceivably win with 30 votes, or perhaps he could need 185,000 to win — it’s all a matter of what percentage of the electorate shows up. If the 2000 election is any indicator, the winner of the 2004 5th District Congressional election will need a little over 100,000 votes.
I don’t know the origin of Ms. Anderson’s numbers, but the Danville Register Bee ought to be vetting their figures more closely.