Waldo Jaquith

We don’t call those flabby tourists lumbering about the National Mall an FBI agent just because they wear a cap lettered “FBI”, why would you call a Republican “conservative”?

Posted by Bubby Hussein, Hillbilly Sheikh on 28 April 2011 @ 3pm

Fair point. :)

Posted by Waldo Jaquith on 28 April 2011 @ 7pm

Regarding the alligators, I disagree with the global warming angle. While I agree that global warming is real and that human industry probably has a lot to do with it, this alligator sighting has no bearing on that.

There has been a sustained population of gators in a pond about 16 miles south of the Virginia border for a very long time. That represents the northernmost population of American alligators known. Having one gator move 11 miles up a river isn’t that big a deal.

Furthermore, note that it was a seven foot long alligator. If someone spotted a baby then *that* would be interesting and would suggest a northern move in response to climate change. See, there is no reason why alligators can’t survive even here in central Virginia. They can get by all right with the slightly longer winters. They just grow more slowly. I believe that the problem is that they can’t breed successfully and sustainably this far north. We can still get cold snaps during the mating season, which could screw up that whole ritual for them. Alligator eggs incubated at less that 86 degrees in the first few weeks will be 100% female, which would tend to halt population growth in the long run. I suspect that alligators at the northern end of their range would tend to include more females than those closer to the equator.

Anyway, one seven footer showing up a little farther north is kind of neat but its size tells us that it is a vagrant rather than something that represents a shift in the animals’ range in response to climate change.

Posted by Jackson Landers on 28 April 2011 @ 11pm

Global climate change is a slow process. So alligators are found fifty miles south of the border. Then forty. Then thirty. And so on. Looking for the year that they leap 100 miles north is like creationists wanting a “transitional life form”—it’s slower than that. Defenders of Wildlife and EPA are two organizations that believe that this is exactly what’s happening with alligators. I’m sure a little googling would turn up quite a few more likewise reputable organizations who agree.

Posted by Waldo Jaquith on 29 April 2011 @ 7am

@Waldo, I’m not saying that we need to wait for some specific number of miles worth of change in the range of the American alligator. What I’m saying is that the movement of a grown adult means practically nothing, no matter how far north it is. 17 years ago you’ll recall that there was a 5 foot alligator right here in the Rivanna. Probably released by a herp hobbyist, it survived for at least a few years. Random adult alligators found outside of their normal range are neat but ultimately mean nothing unless there is evidence of breeding.

If even one baby alligator is found even a few miles north of where they’ve been in the past then I will consider that evidence of a climate-based shift in the range of the species. I’m not taking issue with the matter of incremental movement, I’m just insisting that reproduction is the factor that really counts in range expansion of non-migratory animals.

Posted by Jackson Landers on 29 April 2011 @ 12pm

So, it would be interesting to see a similar study for physicians. The working assumption is that “socialist” health care leads to lower physician compensation, and that’s why American physicians would never consider leaving. But are American physicians really as well compensated as it seems? Considering (http://benbrownmd.wordpress.com/2010/06/20/informedconsent/) and the fact that medical school in many nations is paid for by the government it seems like there’s a very real argument to be made that in the end, for the work performed and the costs associated one could net more as a physician in a socialist system.

Posted by Jason Inofuentes on 29 April 2011 @ 8pm

No big deal about the alligator. They’ve been found in Viriginia before. The reptiles range was restricted in the 19th and 20th century due to hunting. This one may just be recolonizing its home turf.

Separately: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2005/may/24/20050524-120815-9035r/ discusses why this isn’t a great concern.

Posted by jmcnamera on 2 May 2011 @ 9am

btw, the article about alligators in VA is from 2005!

Posted by jmcnamera on 2 May 2011 @ 9am