I live in Del. Rob Bell’s district, the 58th, and I’ve been keeping an eye on the voting trends here. Perriello defeated Goode in this district by 25,826 votes to 20,996 votes, or with 55% of the vote. (Note that Orange County is not in the 5th Congressional District, so I substituted the presidential numbers for those two precincts. McCain won both by comfortable margins.) Those are the sort of numbers that support a Democratic challenger.
It seems that Bell is aware of this shift—we just got a sort of a random mailer from him about veterans’ affairs, the first such thing I think we’ve ever had sent to our house. It was postmarked November 5.
Not to mention that Perriello generally outperformed Obama.
Speaking of mailers, the only one I received throughout the entire election cycle was from the Democratic party of Virginia saying Obama would protect the 2nd ammendment.
Speaking of mailers, I didn’t receive a single one! It seems my vote is so obvious no one is going to bother.
(Formally UVA08)
Waldo,
Do those numbers include the absentee ballots from those precincts? I am willing to bet that if there was some way to make a calculation while redistributing the absentee votes back to their original precincts, the margin would be even bigger for Perriello and would be enough to even put Obama over the top in the 58th.
(I posted this in the wrong thread earlier)
I am much more pessimistic than you re: next year’s election. Rob does a good job w/ constituent services and works hard. Any challenger will have a hard time no matter the tilt of the district or this year’s elections.
I agree on both counts, Jennifer—he’s a hard worker and is good with constituents. Though I think that his political perspectives and priorities differ significantly from many citizens of the 58th, that’s (for better or for worse) not always at the forefront of voters’ minds.
(OK Maybe I will keep this name to save myself some inconvenience)
Jennifer,
You know I have heard how hard of a worker Bell is, but I always have a hard time coming up with something he’s pushed through that is really important to the people of the Charlottesville area. I know he pushed the bullying measures a couple of years ago (for which he should commended), but when it comes to giving localities the tools they need to manage growth and its impacts, I can’t come up with much. The state is dealing with a budget shortfall, our roads are becoming more congested, and localities are having a tough time dealing with growth (perhaps because the legislature hasn’t delegated them sufficient power to deal with it). When it comes down to these quality of life issues, what has Bell really done?
I don’t think that he’s working hard for the right stuff, I’ll certainly agree with you on that. Most of his bills strike me as brochure bills, and he’s as much a member of The Party of “No” as the rest of the House Republicans.