The biggest reason why I think that Governor Bolling would be good for Virginia Democrats is that we’re getting too big for our britches(1) [...] Urban Democrats are acting like we’ve got 60% of the electorate on board, (2) [...] Virginia Democrats need to understand that winning the governor’s seat is far from a sure thing. I can’t think of a better way to get that message across than actually losing that seat due to our own success in the form of Vice President Kaine.(3) [...] Kaine will go on to better things, and the DPVA will ultimately be better for it. (4)

So your argument is VP Kaine would be good for the DPVA because currently,
(1) Democrats are too confident, and
(2) Urban Democrats don’t know that.

So therefore…
(3) VP Kaine giving the governor’s mansion to Bolling would remind us that we are too confident.

Leading to the result…
(4) Reminding Democrats that we are too confident is good for the party.

Thus…

How, exactly, would selecting a product of the great urban Democratic wave for the Vice Presidency convince us that we’re too big for our britches?

…while poorly phrased, questions contention #3. How would it get the message across to Urban Democrats that the governorship isn’t a surefire deal?

An Obama victory with Kaine at his side will more than likely convince Virginia Democrats to be more confident than ever before, especially if Virginia is carried. I just don’t believe that a victory for Virginia Democrats could ever translate into a tempering of Democratic confidence (or over-confidence). So what if Bill Bolling is governor? Tim Kaine is Vice President.

I’m not saying picking Kaine would be bad for VA Dems. I contend the exact same impact – this being good for DPVA – but for the completely opposite reason. It’s good because it will serve as a visible reminder of our success (regardless of the fact a Republican is governor), causing us to be more confident, and will keep us motivated for more.

How, exactly, would selecting a product of the great urban Democratic wave for the Vice Presidency convince us that we’re too big for our britches? What does that mean?

It wouldn’t. That’s the opposite of what I said. :) Give ‘er another read.

This argument might make sense if it were made for Mark Warner, who won on the basis of his unprecedented strength in rural areas. Tim Kaine, however, won by stitching together a majority in urban Virginia and steamrolling the rest of the state. Warner scratched out wins in places like Franklin and Appomattox Counties, places where Kilgore wiped the floor with Kaine. Kaine is the governor that, if anything, shows the increasing power of urban Virginia.

If anything, the ascension of the first victory by force of urban Democrats to one heartbeat away from leader of the free world would do nothing except convince us in liberal population centers that we’re doing rather well. Losing the seat to Bolling will be a minor ripple should Kaine be elected Vice President, a feat that far outweighs the lucky rise of a lieutenant governor. Democrats will not be suddenly whipped into quaking in their boots if the presidency is theirs.

Even if losing the governorship for a year would be a good thing, even if it splashes Virginia Democrats with a bucket of cold water, it will all be far outweighed by the event which would have caused it–actually winning the presidency.

The other knock on Kaine in the convention wisdom is that he lacks “experience,” since he’s a not quite one-term governor. The people who say that never seem to mention it when they’re talking about Warner, so I don’t put much stock in it, but it seems worth mentioning.

If Obama picks Warner, then Kaine goes for the Senate seat, and the Bolling domino scenario you describe goes into full effect.

Harry Reid might not like the potential loss of his #1 sure bet pickup, but Warner would be a stronger pick.

Please note also that a Webb selection would have much the same effect. With Kaine appointing himself to that seat and giving the gov to bolling.

For that reason, and a few others, all along I’ve seen Kaine as a decoy to deflect attention from those actually being considered. If I’m right, I expect Kaine has known that all along.

However, your scenario might work. Other astute observers have said much the same thing. But it could backfire. Meanwhile, the publicity over Kaine’s chances hasn’t hurt anything.