I’ve spent the past couple of weeks mulling over the possibility of Tim Kaine getting the nod as Barack Obama’s running mate, and I’ve come to the decision that it wouldn’t be such a bad thing. On the whole, I think it would be good for the Obama campaign, good for Virginia Democrats, and certainly good for Tim Kaine.
Why Kaine?
I’ve lamented that Kaine would be a bad choice for VP, and I think that’s true, in the sense that there are—or, rather, were—much better contenders. Both Sen. Jim Webb and Gov. Mark Warner leap to mind immediately. But, one by one, those better contenders took themselves out of the running. And there’s nothing to be gained in comparing the available candidates against hypothetical candidates. From the field of individuals understood to be contenders for Obama’s vice presidential nominee right now, I think Kaine’s probably the best guy.
What Kaine lacks, in comparison to a hypothetical ideal, is a reputation as a centrist and a military background. (I expect that he’ll have a reputation as a centrist in the years ahead, after his term is over, but now he’s simply known at best as somebody trying to be a centrist. Warner’s image as a centrist likewise enjoyed a boost possible only in retrospect.) But Kaine’s Catholic moorings and governorship of a conservative state is enough to persuade the average American voter that he’s a centrist. Likewise, Kaine isn’t of the south, but the rest of the country doesn’t know that, what with his being governor of a southern state. It’s not clear to me that Kaine could deliver Virginia, but the odds would certainly improve.
The other leading contender, if one believes the rumor mill, is Deleware’s Sen. Joe Biden. He’s an amicable guy, a funny and forceful speaker, and has a relatively good record in the Senate. (Many people find his support of the bankruptcy “reform” bill for his state’s credit card debt industry an unforgivable sin. I won’t go that far, but I lost a lot of respect for him.) He’s 65 years old, giving the ticket some much-needed gray hair, and he’s held his seat since 1973, giving the ticket some much-needed experience. On the other hand, Biden is a bit of a loose cannon, and doesn’t bring a state with him. There are some definite upsides to the choice of Biden—I could even be persuaded that he’d be a better pick than Kaine—but I remain a Kaine man.
Good for Virginia Democrats
I have an awfully difficult time fearing the prospect of Governor Bill Bolling. I’ve fostered kittens that I’ve found more threatening than Lt. Gov. Bolling. Part of that comes from his career, which has substantially consisted of him insisting that he and Kaine are BFF, and part of that comes from watching hours of video of the Virginia senate, over which he wields an iron Downy-soft fist of fear wuv. Obviously, I believe that Kaine makes a better governor than Bolling would, but there’s not much damage that he can do in a year and two months, especially since the budget is set through the rest of his term. He’d spend his first year bound to the machinations Kaine has already set in place.
What I really like about this is the disarray that it would throw Virginia Republicans into. They’ve managed to plan out the 2009 election pretty neatly, with AG Bob McDonnell running for governor and Bill Bolling running for reelection as LG. But with Bolling already in the governor’s mansion, that leaves McDonnell running for reelection as AG, at best, and challenging Bolling for the nomination, at worst. Bolling would be a much weaker candidate for governor than McDonnell—he’s milquetoast next to McDonnell—which has got to be a big part of why Bolling stepped aside for McDonnell to run. Short of a challenge by McDonnell, Virginia Republicans would be stuck with Bolling as their ’09 candidate.
Better still, Virginia Republicans would regard Bolling’s ascension as a victory. Rather than understanding that they simply got lucky—that Kaine handed the governor’s office to Republicans—their dwindling core of true believers would genuinely believe that Bolling’s governorship means that the electorate is clamoring for their flat-earth vision of government. Which is, of course, precisely the opposite of the truth.
Remember this basic truth: when handed an opportunity, Virginia Republicans never fail to squander it utterly. The bigger the opportunity, the more devastating the damage to the party. Governor Bolling? Epic fail. I would fully expect the far-right wing of the party to be furious with Bolling in a matter of months.
The biggest reason why I think that Governor Bolling would be good for Virginia Democrats is that we’re getting too big for our britches. Urban Democrats are acting like we’ve got 60% of the electorate on board, when it’s more like 45%, at best. Victory after victory has made Democrats’ reclamation of the entire Virginia political field seem inevitable. And it is, as long as we don’t screw up. We’ve got to play like we’re three runs down, but I don’t think that Democrats in liberal population centers understand the need for that. Virginia Democrats need to understand that winning the governor’s seat is far from a sure thing. I can’t think of a better way to get that message across than actually losing that seat due to our own success in the form of Vice President Kaine.
This may well all be moot in hours or, at most, a few days. If Kaine doesn’t get the nod from Obama, that’s great—life will go on normally. But if he does, there’s no need for Democrats to tear out their hair—Kaine will go on to better things, and the DPVA will ultimately be better for it.
Tradition has it that Virginia governors don’t play at national politics while in office.
For that reason, and a few others, all along I’ve seen Kaine as a decoy to deflect attention from those actually being considered. If I’m right, I expect Kaine has known that all along.
However, your scenario might work. Other astute observers have said much the same thing. But it could backfire. Meanwhile, the publicity over Kaine’s chances hasn’t hurt anything.
Waldo, please check your messages: Obama wants to adopt that fostered kitten as his running mate. Something about the election starting to look as close as a whisker…
Yup, amen. I’m entirely in favor of Bill Bolling as Governor under this scenario.
I agree. BTW – I understand that Bolling & McDonnell have a deal in place: should Bolling be elevated to Governor, McDonnell will run for re-election as AG while Bolling seeks to be governor.
Another possibility comes under a Warner VP selection.
If Obama picks Warner, then Kaine goes for the Senate seat, and the Bolling domino scenario you describe goes into full effect.
Harry Reid might not like the potential loss of his #1 sure bet pickup, but Warner would be a stronger pick.
Please note also that a Webb selection would have much the same effect. With Kaine appointing himself to that seat and giving the gov to bolling.
Okay, you’ve convinced me that Kaine getting the nod wouldn’t be as bad as I was thinking, though the bump from being an incumbent, even for a year, is nothing to sneeze at.
The other knock on Kaine in the convention wisdom is that he lacks “experience,” since he’s a not quite one-term governor. The people who say that never seem to mention it when they’re talking about Warner, so I don’t put much stock in it, but it seems worth mentioning.
How, exactly, would selecting a product of the great urban Democratic wave for the Vice Presidency convince us that we’re too big for our britches? What does that mean?
This argument might make sense if it were made for Mark Warner, who won on the basis of his unprecedented strength in rural areas. Tim Kaine, however, won by stitching together a majority in urban Virginia and steamrolling the rest of the state. Warner scratched out wins in places like Franklin and Appomattox Counties, places where Kilgore wiped the floor with Kaine. Kaine is the governor that, if anything, shows the increasing power of urban Virginia.
If anything, the ascension of the first victory by force of urban Democrats to one heartbeat away from leader of the free world would do nothing except convince us in liberal population centers that we’re doing rather well. Losing the seat to Bolling will be a minor ripple should Kaine be elected Vice President, a feat that far outweighs the lucky rise of a lieutenant governor. Democrats will not be suddenly whipped into quaking in their boots if the presidency is theirs.
Even if losing the governorship for a year would be a good thing, even if it splashes Virginia Democrats with a bucket of cold water, it will all be far outweighed by the event which would have caused it–actually winning the presidency.
It wouldn’t. That’s the opposite of what I said. :) Give ‘er another read.
From the post:
So your argument is VP Kaine would be good for the DPVA because currently,
(1) Democrats are too confident, and
(2) Urban Democrats don’t know that.
So therefore…
(3) VP Kaine giving the governor’s mansion to Bolling would remind us that we are too confident.
Leading to the result…
(4) Reminding Democrats that we are too confident is good for the party.
Thus…
…while poorly phrased, questions contention #3. How would it get the message across to Urban Democrats that the governorship isn’t a surefire deal?
An Obama victory with Kaine at his side will more than likely convince Virginia Democrats to be more confident than ever before, especially if Virginia is carried. I just don’t believe that a victory for Virginia Democrats could ever translate into a tempering of Democratic confidence (or over-confidence). So what if Bill Bolling is governor? Tim Kaine is Vice President.
I’m not saying picking Kaine would be bad for VA Dems. I contend the exact same impact – this being good for DPVA – but for the completely opposite reason. It’s good because it will serve as a visible reminder of our success (regardless of the fact a Republican is governor), causing us to be more confident, and will keep us motivated for more.
I don’t doubt that for some folks (like you and me), a Governor Bolling would be a visible reminder of success. But surely you’ll agree that for the overwhelming majority of Democrats, they’ll see it as a failure as surely as Republicans will see it as a victory. There’s is a perception, one that I sense is wrong (but I’ve never looked at any data), that there is a power of party incumbency w/r/t the Virginia governorship. With two consecutive Democratic governors, some folks are starting to get comfortable. Insofar as there is this perception of incumbency, having Bolling as governor will make Democrats fight harder to retain (or regain, depending on how you look at it) the seat in 2009.
A quick quibble – should we be talking about complacency, rather than confidence? Tis a distinction with a difference, I think.