Charlottesville Democrat Tom Perriello has become the third Democrat to file to run against Rep. Virgil Goode, Bob Gibson writes in the Daily Progress. He’s raised a startling $109,500 in his first month, dwarfing his opponents for the nomination, David Shreve and Brydon Jackson. Goode currently reports $308,583 cash on hand.
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I have met Tom once, at the recent Fifth District Committee meeting. He seems like a nice guy, and very serious about this.
He is both a nice and a serious guy, Mark. He’s smart, earnest, progressive, hardworking, and honest – tailor-made to win perhaps upwards of 60% in C’ville-Albemarle.
After reading Gibson’s piece it sounds like Perriello would provide an interesting contrast to Goode in a campaign. Perriello has some firsthand experience in dealing with third world problems. And, Goode seems angry because third world problems won’t just stay in the third world, where they belong.
F.T.,
A lump of limberger cheese lying there in the middle of the floor would also provide an interesting contrast to Goode in a campaign. Much like Perriello (or either of the other 2 candidates), the lump of limberger cheese would also garner about 37% of the vote in the general election.
However, my own vote in the Democratic primary will have to be for the lump of limberger cheese. The lump of limberger cheese will not suck up and waste hundreds of thousands of campaign dollars that would be better spent in more competitive VA House races. The lump of limburger cheese will not make any embarrassing gaffes or missteps that cause the rest of the party cringe. The lump of limberger cheese will provide a striking contrast to the hard-right, xenophobic record of Virgil Goode. The lump of limberger cheese will carry the party banner in a quiet, dignified manner.
Lump of Limberger Cheese for Congress! 2008! WOOO!
Monterrey Jack and Limberger Cheese,
I think you underestimate the anti-Republican sentiment spreading through the American conscience. Sure districts are gerrymandered to ensure incumbency, but a strong grassroots effort coupled with an attractive, personal message can make large in-roads into so-called Republican strongholds. As a former congressional campaign manager, I can attest to this fact. Did you also notice that Perriello raised about $110K in less than a month. That is quite impressive and underscores a confidence in his candidacy.
Drew,
Never before was the anti-incumbent and anti-Republican sentiment in America so high as in the 2006 mid-terms. Yet Al Weed got, what? Something like 36%? And he was in many ways an ideal candidate. A farmer, a Green Beret and Vietnam Veteran with over 30 years in the Army and numerous combat jumps to his credit. A good speaker and he was once temporary head of the World Bank. You don’t really get better material than that.
But he got his ass handed to him. Despite Virgil getting dragged into the MZM scandal and despite his repeated instances of foot-in-mouth disease. Virgil and his party were at their weakest yet it meant nothing.
I’ve worked on several Congressional campaigns in the 5th District in roles varying from strategist and speech-writer to deputy treasurer to campaign grunt to driver and personal assistant. I’ve spent many and many a long day driving around this district with candidates, going to church picnics and firehouse barbeques and county fairs. So I know what I’m talking about when I point to these candidates and say without any hesitation that they are doomed beyond all doubt.
We’re talking shop here. We aren’t giving rousing speeches to the troops at a local convention. The readers of this blog are fellow political junkies and campaign workers and candidates. So let’s not kid anyone. Virgil sits on an impregnable fortress. He has the best constituent services of any politician I have every encountered. You’ve even got local Democratic party chairs around Southside who are old friends of Virgil’s from back when he was a Democrat and in practice they will not lift a finger to oppose him. He’s still their guy.
Southside and most of the 5th District in general despises Charlottesville and anyone who they connect with Charlottesville. They are convinced of this fiction that Charlottesville is standing in the way of their economic development through opposition to the 29 bypass. Anyone from Charlottesville is automatically capped at under 40% of the popular vote. PERIOD.
I’ve watched this whole thing unfold again and again and it’s just sad. Perriello is just going to piss away hundreds of thousands of dollars for no good reason except maybe to become a footnote in the Wikipedia. You get a guy who sort of looks good on paper and he starts talking about running for Congress against Virgil Goode and he has some money to put into it so people flatter him. Charlottesville liberals who put too much credit in the ‘rah-rah’ crap slap him on the back and tell him he can go all the way. Hey look! He’s got a base now! And then campaign monkeys looking for a paycheck for the next year butter him up and spin elaborate fictions about how very vulnerable Virgil is and how just the right candidate can take him down at this moment. And by golly – that candidate just happens to be YOU, mister $100k in the bank who can pay my rent and punch my resume up!
It’s all bullshit. These guys swindle themselves and they swindle the people who write the checks and they all get swindled by the campaign monkeys who just want to be part of something exciting.
A big joke. Don’t fall for it. We’ve got real races to work on in Virginia. The open seat in the 1st District. Or Tom Davis’ district in the event that he pulls the trigger on this Senate race. Thelma Drake won her seat in ’06 with only 51% and is clearly worth taking another shot at. Our cup runneth over with real pick-up opportunities. There’s no need to pretend that the 5th is one of them.
I agree with most of what you said, Jack, but I have a few observations as well.
1. It sounds as though you are criticizing previous candidates for being taken in by campaign workers looking for rent money and food. Do you really mean that in all cases?
2. Most of what you said does hold true for candidates from the northern end of the 5th District, including Charlottesville. However, Brydon Jackson live in Pittsylvania. Would you apply the same criticism of him that you do the two candidates from the Charlottesville area?
Mark,
1. Not in every single case, no. And I don’t even think that campaign workers are always entirely aware of the bullshit that they get into. What I was outlining was more the cumulative anatomy of how a pie-in-the-sky Congressional campaign happens. There’s always a story behind the delusion and what I have described is usually the jist of it.
In fact, I have in years past been one of those bright-eyed, bushy-tailed campaign monkeys. I know better now. But I have been in on the recruitment of a Congressional candidate for a hopeless race (I won’t name names here). One feels a certain excitement at the possibility of being a part of something so important as a Congressional race and having the opportunity to squeeze in there at a senior level. And boy, what if by some fluke your guy wins? What a feather in your cap! Maybe the other guy will drop dead before the election. Who knows? So I engaged in a lot of wishful thinking and helped to convince the candidate that this was just the perfect opportunity to go for it.
The thing is that it wasn’t my hundreds of thousands of dollars that got spent. And I worked pretty hard but not like the candidate did. It wasn’t me who was going to have to essentially say goodbye to my family for the next year while I trotted around to every committee meeting and church picnic in the District. So my wishful thinking was cheap for me but very pricey for those whom I convinced. Then there were half a dozen other people like me to amplify the effect. And once the ball got rolling you have all of these desperate, needy sorts of people who must belong to something and they will jump right on board and echo the chorus of victory despite knowing absolutely nothing about the reality of electoral politics. It gains it’s own momentum and it’s easy to mistake for ‘deep grassroots support.’ We form an echo chamber and convince ourselves of our own bullshit.
2. I don’t know enough about Brydon Jackson to say what his chances are. Being from Pittsylvania should help him some. All things being equal, he might break 40%. He’s got a good resume and I’m sure he’s a good guy. But let me tell you what I think are 2 of the dirtiest little secrets in electoral politics.
First is the fact that resumes mean absolutely nothing except maybe in regard to past political offices held. Nobody really cares. They say that they care but they don’t. I’ve watched so many veterans and fire fighters and other really exceptional sorts of people throw themselves at a race and fail. Who usually wins? Lawyers. The most widely disliked profession in America after debt collectors. Everybody hates lawyers so having a resume of being a lawyer should mean doom. But it doesn’t. Lawyers win elections against heroes because they have learned how to convince people to give them what they want. Judges, juries, other lawyers. Lawyers have learned how to present themselves in a professional and likable way while also dotting every ‘i’ and crossing every ‘t’. They don’t screw up too bad or get too lazy because if they had those bad habits then they’d never have gotten through law school.
So Brydon Jackson’s resume will mean absolutely nothing. It will get him lip service but not a single vote. Remember that Paul Hackett wasn’t just an Iraq War veteran. He was also a lawyer.
The second dirty little secret is that candidates suck. They all suck. New candidates especially. If they put a ‘none of the above’ option on the ballot then no open seat would ever be filled. New candidates do a terrible job. Ask any of their campaign managers after you put a couple of drinks in them. This, I am convinced, is half the magic of incumbency. The incumbent has not only learned how not to screw everything up but as an incumbent he can attract more money and better campaign talent to hold the seat.
So I don’t apply *all* the same criticism to Brydon Jackson as I do to the other 2 candidates. But enough to still be pretty sure that he will lose. Look at Virgil Goode’s incredible margins in election after election, no matter what the climate or what scandals were nipping at his heels. It would take a really, really exceptional challenger to knock him off. Like a former Governor. Or maybe he could be redistricted out. Barring something like that, Virgil is very safe.
It would take a really, really exceptional challenger to knock him off. Like a former Governor.
Or a former 5th District Congressman? Paging L.F. Payne. Paging L.F. Payne.
Wow Jack, tell us how you really feel!
Well, Jack, I will throw out there a lawyer from Southside then. Brad Marston.
Maybe he would have enough of what it takes.
Thinking that any seat is totally safe right now is a huge mistake. I believe in being strategic with resources, but it is important to organize and fight everywhere, especially with numbers for Republicans and Congress being so low. Things have gotten much worse than 2006 and the Republicans are totally falling apart. I have met Tom a couple times now and sense he is not to be underestimated. Goode is horrible and we should fight for something better.