Sen. Warner’s seat: The Republicans.
Sen. John Warner’s retirement announcement, followed by Gov. Mark Warner’s candidacy announcement, suddenly makes the race pretty interesting. Mark Warner was Democrats’ only clear candidate, and a clear winner. For Republicans, on the other hand, nothing is clear.
Rep. Tom Davis has been preparing to run for this seat for a long, long time. He’s Republicans’ default candidate. He’s farther to the left than any other member of the state’s Republican congressional delegation, though perhaps not enough to make him any more palatable to Democrats. As a result, he’d have a heck of a time getting the nomination in the face of some other other interested candidates. Rasmussen just polled on a Warner/Davis matchup and they have Warner beating Davis by a 27% landslide. As Jackson explained today, Tom Davis is neither dumb nor crazy, and thus is surely thinking hard about pulling out at this point.
Former governor Jim Gilmore has been making noise about running, too, and he seems like a likely candidate. Gilmore would be an enormously flawed candidate. He just aborted a run for the presidency that went utterly unnoticed. Gilmore is beloved by far-right Republicans in the same way that Kucinch is beloved by far-left Democrats. Neither will ever be elected to a higher office. Gilmore’s popularity among the base, though, is precisely what may make him a shoo-in for the nomination. Rasmussen included him in their survey, too, and they have Warner beating him by 20%. He has huge unfavorables — 42% have an unfavorable view of him, compared with Mark Warner’s stunning 68% favorable rating. Gilmore was a terrible governor, leaving the state in economic shambles and even his very motto unfulfilled. Gilmore could not win a race against Warner unless Warner is caught with a live boy or a dead hooker.
Rep. Eric Cantor would be a solid candidate, for the reasons recently outlined in The National Review. But also for the reasons outlined there, he’s unlikely to run: he’s a rising star in the House, and if he switched to the Senate, he’d have to start at the bottom again. He’s quite likely too invested in the House to switch chambers.
Rep. Virgil Goode would be a terrible candidate, but he’s had people telling him for years that he should run for Senate. I imagine that he views his recent attention as validation of his positions. It is not unreasonable that he would run. Obviously, I think he’d have no chance at getting the nomination or, certainly, elected. His positions are way out of the mainstream on the topics of freedom of religion and immigration. Half of the state couldn’t wade their way through the man’s accent to understand what he’s saying. (Seriously.)
Pat Buchanan’s rumored candidacy would be evidence that there is a God, and He is a Democrat.
The Republican primary (or, more likely, convention) could very well shape up to be enormously bloody and enormously ugly. John Hager’s recent election to the RPV chairmanship is surely in a better position than anybody else to minimize that. I’d describe this as his first big test as the chairman, but I suspect that’s going to be keeping the party from imploding if they lose the majority of either chamber come November, which now looks all but inevitable.
This may end up looking very similar to the Republican presidential primary: the candidates who can get nominated are the candidates who cannot possibly win.
25 Comments