Sen. Warner’s seat: The Republicans.

Sen. John Warner’s retirement announcement, followed by Gov. Mark Warner’s candidacy announcement, suddenly makes the race pretty interesting. Mark Warner was Democrats’ only clear candidate, and a clear winner. For Republicans, on the other hand, nothing is clear.

Rep. Tom Davis has been preparing to run for this seat for a long, long time. He’s Republicans’ default candidate. He’s farther to the left than any other member of the state’s Republican congressional delegation, though perhaps not enough to make him any more palatable to Democrats. As a result, he’d have a heck of a time getting the nomination in the face of some other other interested candidates. Rasmussen just polled on a Warner/Davis matchup and they have Warner beating Davis by a 27% landslide. As Jackson explained today, Tom Davis is neither dumb nor crazy, and thus is surely thinking hard about pulling out at this point.

Former governor Jim Gilmore has been making noise about running, too, and he seems like a likely candidate. Gilmore would be an enormously flawed candidate. He just aborted a run for the presidency that went utterly unnoticed. Gilmore is beloved by far-right Republicans in the same way that Kucinch is beloved by far-left Democrats. Neither will ever be elected to a higher office. Gilmore’s popularity among the base, though, is precisely what may make him a shoo-in for the nomination. Rasmussen included him in their survey, too, and they have Warner beating him by 20%. He has huge unfavorables — 42% have an unfavorable view of him, compared with Mark Warner’s stunning 68% favorable rating. Gilmore was a terrible governor, leaving the state in economic shambles and even his very motto unfulfilled. Gilmore could not win a race against Warner unless Warner is caught with a live boy or a dead hooker.

Rep. Eric Cantor would be a solid candidate, for the reasons recently outlined in The National Review. But also for the reasons outlined there, he’s unlikely to run: he’s a rising star in the House, and if he switched to the Senate, he’d have to start at the bottom again. He’s quite likely too invested in the House to switch chambers.

Rep. Virgil Goode would be a terrible candidate, but he’s had people telling him for years that he should run for Senate. I imagine that he views his recent attention as validation of his positions. It is not unreasonable that he would run. Obviously, I think he’d have no chance at getting the nomination or, certainly, elected. His positions are way out of the mainstream on the topics of freedom of religion and immigration. Half of the state couldn’t wade their way through the man’s accent to understand what he’s saying. (Seriously.)

Pat Buchanan’s rumored candidacy would be evidence that there is a God, and He is a Democrat.

The Republican primary (or, more likely, convention) could very well shape up to be enormously bloody and enormously ugly. John Hager’s recent election to the RPV chairmanship is surely in a better position than anybody else to minimize that. I’d describe this as his first big test as the chairman, but I suspect that’s going to be keeping the party from imploding if they lose the majority of either chamber come November, which now looks all but inevitable.

This may end up looking very similar to the Republican presidential primary: the candidates who can get nominated are the candidates who cannot possibly win.

Published by Waldo Jaquith

Waldo Jaquith (JAKE-with) is an open government technologist who lives near Char­lottes­­ville, VA, USA. more »

25 replies on “Sen. Warner’s seat: The Republicans.”

  1. Nice analysis.

    I expect Tom Davis to bail. He’ll spend the next month and a half having his pit bull Lacivita attack to see if anything sticks to Warner…then he’ll bail if nothing does.

    He’s no dummy and surely won’t give up a sweet house seat or the opportunity to jump into the private sector as a winner unless he can find a pretty sizable chink in Warner’s armor. If he doesn’t find it quickly, I’ll bet he opts out. Be on the look out for some serious negative poll questions over the next month.

    Gilmore–won’t have those same instincts. He is likely unwanted in the private sector and doesn’t have a current office. I expect him to get in whole hog.

    I don’t expect Cantor or Virgil to jump in–just not a good enough opportunity.

    You’re absolutely right that Buchanan would be a godsend.

    Best case scenario for the D’s is EITHER Buchanan OR Gilmore against Davis for the nomination. If all three run, Buchanan and Gilmore go after the same votes–leaving a door open for Davis (depending on the method of nomination). All else being equal, it would be better to run against one of the conservatives I think.

  2. Hawkins–

    That’s exactly the sort of thing Lacivita and others will be trying to get to stick over the next month. Brought to you with compliments by the people who brought you swift boats and john mccain’s illegitimate child.

    I don’t buy it for a second–and unless they are able to produce an actual story with an actual person (who they haven’t paid for the privilege), I would suggest you don’t either.

    These are exactly the sorts of unfounded rumors that cause good people not to want to put their families through the strain of public life–don’t let them do it to the Warners.

  3. If I was a betting man, I would put my money on Gilmore to secure the nomination at this point. Possibly in an uncontested nomination. If Gilmore passes for some reason then there would be an opening for someone totally random like Pat Buchanan or Pee Wee Herman or whatever.

    If Buchanan really is thinking about doing this, he’s going to run into some unpleasant surprises over the next few weeks. He’ll sit down to meet with all sorts of Republican so-and-sos who will not so gently point out that he’s never done a damned thing for the Virginia GOP and that the last time he ran for public office of any kind it was as an independent. He’d find himself walking into the middle of a battle between 2 factions whom he knows nothing about. The only way that such a babe in the woods could muster any support among Republican king-makers and local chairs would be if there was no established Virginia Republican seeking the nomination. In a convention, he won’t be able to fight Gilmore for it. Maybe he could make it happen in a primary, but there’s no way in hell that the party leadership will have it be a primary if Buchanan is considering running against Gilmore.

    Gilmore will scare off any lower tier candidates for the nomination. Former Congressmen and State Senators and such. If this looked like a situation where the general election was really winnable then maybe that wouldn’t be the case. With Mark Warner for an opponent this nomination is not a prize worth getting into a fight over. Not for anyone with a serious political career.

    The Rassmussen numbers say it all. Mark Warner will clean Jim Gilmore’s clock. Two guys with almost universal name recognition in Virginia having basically no room to define each other. Gilmore has no room to grow while Warner is already there with room to spare.

    I’ll go one step farther and predict that Gilmore’s nomination will cause an even deeper rift between the 2 major factions of the Republican party. The traditionalists and fiscal conservatives will look at Gilmore’s dismal poll numbers and anemic fund raising (Gilmore is a terrible fund raiser – look at his Easy-Bake campaign for President) and start screaming at the free-lunchers and evangelicals, ‘What in the hell did you saddle us with this loser for?’ There will be name calling and finger pointing before election day even comes.

    Get the popcorn ready.

  4. Hawkins,

    You are referring to an un-sourced blog entry on Radar that supposedly quotes an anonymous person who was once a political aide to someone. Get real. There is no who, what, where, when or how. None of the elements of an actual news story are there.

    In other words, it’s total bullshit. If it wasn’t then there would have been follow-ups and details.

  5. Would Buchanan really have any chance of getting the Republican nomination? He’s strayed pretty far from the Republican fold because of the war, and surely the base aren’t going to accept someone so publicly critical of Bush and the war. Seems to me that if Buchanan is actually thinking of running it must be as an independent, and concentrating on immigration.

  6. While I join everyone in thinking Hawkins’ comment is lame, I cannot help but remember a certain favorite local blogger of mine using an anonymous, unsubstantiated quote plucked from a Widespread Panic fan site in order to disparage the character of a certain former Senator from the Commonwealth.

    Now the Hsu’s on the other foot it would seem.

  7. This is exactly why I was hoping Mark would delay his announcement until after Davis committed to the race… If Davis does not run, he’ll have the huge incumbent advantage in the congressional district he currently holds – making it tougher to gain the 11th for the correct party.

    I guess I was just too damned greedy.

    It will be nice having two Democratic U.S. Senators from Virginia though.

  8. I wouldn’t worry Scott, there is a very real chance that Davis will simply retire. We don’t need an open seat to win the 11th. After Chap defeats the missus it will just be as mopping up operation.

  9. “Gilmore could not win a race against Warner unless Warner is caught with a live boy or a dead hooker.”

    Ah, the old “dead hooker” campaign test…

    Fantastic, Waldo. That wins “sentence of the day.”

  10. Good goddess I am tired of jokes about Hsu. Get over it.

    What’s next, another Bill Clinton bromide? Maybe we should say that since he is a cad, so is his wife? Hmm.

    This is going to get very ugly before it is over. Make enough popcorn for me, Jack.

  11. Tired of Hsu jokes alrealdy? I’m pretty sure they’re just starting. So, ya know, if the Hsu fits…

  12. I’ll see your Norman Hsu, and raise you one Steven Rosen and throw in a Keith Weissman. And THAT is really just starting.

  13. Well, if Davis stays, Republicans may still lose a seat (w/ emphasis added):

    WASHINGTON – Rep. Christopher Shays said today he will not seek another congressional term unless House Republican leaders support his bid for the job of top GOP member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

    He is meeting with leaders and other key members now.

    If they do not give him significant backing “I’m absolutely not going to run,” said Shays, who said he is giving no one any deadlines.

    Even if he runs and wins, and somehow gets denied the top Republican spot anyway in 2009, “I will resign,” Shays said.

    Shays was in line for the chairmanship in 2003, but was passed over in favor of Rep. Thomas M. Davis 3rd, R-Va., who may run for Virginia’s U.S. Senate seat next year.

    Shorter Shays to Davis? “Jump, or be pushed.”

    (h/t Lowell Feld)

  14. While I join everyone in thinking Hawkins’ comment is lame, I cannot help but remember a certain favorite local blogger of mine using an anonymous, unsubstantiated quote plucked from a Widespread Panic fan site in order to disparage the character of a certain former Senator from the Commonwealth.

    And the same logic applies in each case: No more faith should be placed in either claim than circumstances warrant.

  15. Richmond Dem – If you want to call the 7th Cong. district gerrymandered, that’s all well and good, but don’t forget who gerrymandered it. The 7th is substantially the same district that the Democrat-led GA created in 1991 to merge then-Congressman Allen’s district with Tom Bliley’s, in a deliberate (and shameful) effort to take away a GOP house seat. Cantor was Bliley’s hand-picked successor, and he’s done extremely well in his position.

    Underestimate Cantor at your peril. He’s young, very bright, personable, and stands a better chance of winning statewide office than any Democrat in Virginia’s congressional delegation.

    Waldo, your characterization of Gilmore’s tenure sounds like it came right out of then-Governor Warner’s early term press office. I gotta hand it to those folks… they earned every penny of their salaries, giving their boss excellent cover for his promise-breaking, record-breaking tax hike.

    I’m curious about one thing – why didn’t you include Allen in the discussion? Do you think there’s no chance he’ll run?

  16. Waldo, your characterization of Gilmore’s tenure sounds like it came right out of then-Governor Warner’s early term press office.

    What can I say? I agree with Warner about a lot.

    I’m curious about one thing – why didn’t you include Allen in the discussion? Do you think there’s no chance he’ll run?

    Total oversight on my part. I hadn’t even realized until you mentioned it that I’d left him out. Given that he’s said he’s interested, he seems well worth mentioning. OTOH, he’s a lot shrewder than Gilmore — he’s got to know that a) his odds of reclaiming the governorship will get a lot better with Warner out of the way and b) the odds of Warner willing this Senate race are very good.

  17. “And the same logic applies in each case: No more faith should be placed in either claim than circumstances warrant.”

    Yeah, but now that it’s one of your guys who’s being smeared can you understand better how upset some people were with you when helped disseminate third-hand gossip about Allen? Both the allegations against M. Warner and Allen are plausible, but they’re also unsubstantiated attacks that could just as easily be lies. Don’t you think responsible folks oughtta decline to spread such stories?

  18. In my case, I had so many long-time acquaintances and family friends telling me that they had personally witnessed such violence and its aftermath, but refused to go on the record about it, that it was basically a no-brainer. It was only a few weeks later that Harry Tenney told a similar story.

    It would have been useless to say “no, really, lots of people who I know and trust and who have long known Allen and his wife tell me that this is real,” because it would have sounded like a BS cop-out. Far better to provide a single person’s testimony with all appropriate caveats and let it stand (or fall) on its own merits, rather than attempting to prop it up with what essentially amounts to “trust me.” If the tale is unpersuasive, I’d rather it simply be unpersuasive than for me to make it something more than what it is.

    Compare that to the claims on Radar: they have only the vaguest of single-sentence anonymous assertions. Because, hey, if you’re going to make shit up about somebody, you should at least put a little effort into it. ;)

  19. I think Allen would have a hard time taking the nomination from Bolling at this point. I mean, Allen has HUGE negatives at this point. There’s no question of how to attack him. Why would typical Republicans want to nominate a candidate with such glaring problems with his past? There is just so much of this racist stuff out there. Meanwhile you’ve got up and comers in the party with no such negative baggage.

    In Albemarle County you can’t throw a rock without hitting a couple people who have personal stories about racist, sexist or bullying things that Allen said to them years ago. And now everyone in Virginia knows this. George Allen is tainted goods now. The VA GOP has enough of a bench that they don’t need this guy around. There are much less embarrassing ways available to them for losing an election.

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