- Tally represents the number of self-identified Democrats vs. Republicans at the beginning of each year’s General Assembly session. Data aggregated from the Virginia House of Delegates website.
In a few years, the ’00s are going to be a blip on a chart that we’ll have to explain to kids as “the brief period in which Republicans controlled the House of Delegates.” Republican infighting virtually guarantees that. As Republicans discovered in the ’90s, momentum develops as that gap begins to narrow, the momentum that we Democrats will find this November and in November of ’09.
That said, this gap remains substantial, and will require at least two election cycles to close, assuming that we don’t continue to see winnable Republican seats come up in special elections (such as Shannon Valentine’s clobbering of Mike Harrington for Preston Bryant’s seat in Lynchburg last year). The Senate, being a 17/23 split in Republicans’ advantage, provides Republicans with nearly the same advantage in terms of the percentage of the chamber, but it presents Democrats with significantly fewer races to be won in order to wrest back control.
I agree that this session has not been the VA-GOP’s finest hour, but predicting their imminent demise might be a stretch. We’re talking about a state, er, a commonwealth, that has voted for the conservative party in every presidential election since LBJ/Goldwater in ’64 and that splits its US congressional delegation (House + Senate) 9/4 in favor of the GOP. And the argument can certainly be made that Allen would have beaten Webb had he simply shut up and run as a conservative instead of as someone scandalized by Webb’s 20 year-old thoughts on women at Annapolis. But I digress.
Sooner or later one would think that the RPV would realize that simple, basic conservative policies are winners in VA and act accordingly. I concede, however, that this is not the trend.
Judge Smails,
I’d have an easier time dismissing the ’06 Webb win in that fashion had it not followed a victory for Tim Kaine, a victory for Mark Warner and steady gains in the House of Delegates in cycle after cycle, along with picking up gains in most of the special elections along the way. A pattern has been firmly established.
It’s sort of like Spain and England in the 50 years following the defeat of the Armada. Yeah, Spain was still technically the dominant superpower but it was pretty clear where things were going. Scrappy little England knew where to choose their battles (at sea, never coming to close quarters) and won them again and again. All that low-hanging fruit adds up after a while.
I agree there’s a clear pattern showing things tilting to the Dems in VA; I’m just not sure it won’t be reversed before the GOP gives back all its advantage. Put VA in the Dems’ presidential column in ’08 and I’ll be worried.
BTW, what a great lookin’ kid! Congratulations!
I am glad Waldo is easing back into some read meat after a week of babies, cartoons, and kittens.
And that’s the crux of it, JS. The trouble for Virginia Republicans is that they believe that “conservative” is one half of the entire political spectrum and that, so long as they remain to the right of Democrats, they win. That’s entirely incorrect. There is nothing conservative about extremism in the form of the Dick Blacks of the state. These guys don’t want to “conserve” anything. Whether the topic is sex (as with Black) or a free-lunch take on taxation, Islam=terrorism or secret votes in the General Assembly, the small number of extremists that have hijacked a sizable chunk of the Republican Party are driving it to minority status.
There’s a sweet spot on the ideological spectrum: too far to the left or the right is a losing position in much of Virginia.
Of course, there’s simple demography: rapid population growth in Northern Virginia skews heavily, heavily liberal. But that’s another topic altogether.
“Of course, there’s simple demography: rapid population growth in Northern Virginia skews heavily, heavily liberal. But that’s another topic altogether.”
That rapid population growth is also difusing to other parts of the state like Fredericksburg, Stafford and Fauquier. Those areas in the next 5-10 years will see a shift that may not be as heavy as NOVA right now but it will be close.
The Republicans in this state cannot bury their heads in their own safe districts and believe that their people speak for the state. To do so will see them marginalize their moderates…not that I mind that.
It is not only NOVA Kevin, look at the recent statewide race results in the independent cities and large towns, those folks know what the Republican Party of Virginia has to offer – and they aren’t buying it. Can rural Virginia be far behind?
The progress of the VA Dems must also be connected to the actions of the DC Democrats. If, for example, a new version of the so-called ‘assault weapons ban’ passes the House – or even comes to a full vote on the House floor – a lot of Virginia moderates will be less likely to trust Democrats running for state-level office.
We VA Dems have worked hard to craft a reputation for moderation but remember that this reputation has been built starting in 2001, during a period when national Democrats from the rest of the country were completely out of power in DC and unable to push a liberal agenda that could hurt our reputations. The irrelevance of the Washington Democrats afforded us the rare opportunity to craft an image wholly our own. Should Pelosi fail to rein in the more liberal excesses of some of the elements of her caucus, our advances here in Virginia could be halted. This I see as the greatest peril currently facing the Virginia Democratic Party.
“Should Pelosi fail to rein in the more liberal excesses of some of the elements of her caucus…”
I agree with the your analysis of the US Dems vis-a-vis the VA Dems, but I think the Speaker is part of the more liberal excesses, isn’t she? Her first act as Speaker was to champion Murtha over the more moderate Steny Hoyer for majority leader, and it was she who had to be reeled in.
Judge Smails,
So far we really don’t know whether Pelosi will be a part of the liberal excesses in her role as Speaker. Based on statements she’s made and memos to the caucus that got leaked early last month I get the impression that she aims to put many of her personal desires and opinions aside in the interest of maintaining a majority and actually getting the big, important things done year after year. One’s personal opinions on certain things do not necessarily impact one’s actions as an elected party leader.
For example, Harry Reid is very much pro-life but you won’t see him introducing pie-in-the-sky anti-abortion bills of the kind that so many Republicans favor. He knows perfectly well that such bills are pure showboating, have no chance of actually stopping any abortions and would hurt his party’s odds of holding the majority.
Perhaps Pelosi will also be pragmatical in that way. Even if she passionately believes in gun control, she knows perfectly well that such a bill would never even make it out of committee in the Senate and therefore allowing the bill to move forward in the House could only cost Democrats political support with no upside of any kind for her agenda. But there’s no telling how things will play out and no telling whether she might face a revolt from the far-left by the end of the year and find herself forced to start letting all manner of crap legislation get to the Floor. Less than 2 months as Speaker is just not long enough to tell whether she will be capable of managing the delicate balancing act ahead of her.
As for Murtha vs. Hoyer, I don’t know what you mean. Murtha is far more conservative than Hoyer on most any issue. It is Murtha’s relative conservatism that made it newsworthy when he eventually came out against the war. The political right then found it necessary to tar and feather Murtha as ‘just another liberal’ in order to spin Murtha’s anti-war position. But don’t believe the hype. Murtha has an ‘A+’ rating from the NRA, a long track record of pushing for hawkish defense budgets, has long been a courted swing vote in the House and would have been a far better friend to moderates and conservatives than Steny Hoyer. The GOP’s attacks against Murtha were essentially an act of burning the village as they retreated from it. With Murtha as Majority Leader, Republicans would have had a guy who’d really listen to them.
“That rapid population growth is also difusing to other parts of the state like Fredericksburg, Stafford and Fauquier. Those areas in the next 5-10 years will see a shift that may not be as heavy as NOVA right now but it will be close.
The Republicans in this state cannot bury their heads in their own safe districts and believe that their people speak for the state. To do so will see them marginalize their moderates…not that I mind that.”
I agree completely with Bubby and Kevin. Though it may not be as strong, there are several areas outside of the traditional NOVA suburbs are trending towards the Democrats. Albemarle Co., Harrisonburg, Montgomery Co., Henrico Co., James City Co, Williamsburg, Clarke Co., Warren Co., Fluvanna Co., Fauquier, Stafford and to a lesser degree Chesapeake, VA Beach all seem to be moderating. I dont think this is an endorsement of liberalism but rather a desire to see things come back towards the middle. I think people sometimes forget that no party holds a majority in terms of ID in this state. In order to win an election in Virginia a candidate must win a substantial (if not a majority) of the Independent vote. A couple examples of this: In ’04 Bush carried 54% of the Independent vote in VA. In ’06 Webb carried 56% of their vote. This crucial voting block wants practical governing over ideology.
All that graph shows is how powerful the people who draw the district lines are. Let’s get non-partisan redistricting now, before the Democrats regain the majority and extend this bad karma for another decade.
Hi Waldo
Please see this web site about an iraqi girl who was raped and kiiled by GIs. A German citixen put up this web site and plans to build a hospital in her name. It also has you tube video and otehr info… sad. very sad. I thought you would like to read it.
http://abeer.ws
Thanks Waldo
Ismail
What a bunch of fucking propaganda. And from some Kraut no less! As if we need morality lessons from them.
And, Ismail, send Waldo a fucking e-mail next time so the whole thread’s not poisoned with your garbage.
Inside you must be a good man. External forces or growing up screwed you somwhere Smails. I wish I was around to help you out..
You will be ok….
Smails,
Your fathers at CNN picked up the story today, and suddenly it is not a propaganda by a German and a Muslim!! May be you would still not beleieve it, because it is not on FOX NEWS. You are a real ” non- believer brother”! ( humor)
Ismail,
ps: I could have send an email to Waldo but then I would have missed an opportunity to EXPOSE a good human being like you – thats all.
Link to CNN story is here..
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/02/22/ussoldier.rape.ap/index.html
Peace is not an option !
Ismail
Yeah, I know it happened. The guy just got 100 years in prison. Nevertheless, a thread on the balance of power in the Virginia General Assembly is probably not a great place to post it.
For example, I might want to muse on how ironic it is that under the UCMJ the US soldier will be in prison for life, but if he’d been tried under sharia it would take four male witnesses to convict, but this would not be the place to post such musings.
Smail-
You made my day by saying ” I know it happened”. I told you, you are not all that bad as you project yourself to be.
I did not realize that this barbaric act needs a separate section. We will ask Waldo to have one for crime against humanity.
Ismail
ps: Even a high schooler from VA will tell you that he is eligible for parole in 10 years ( meaning 99% he will be out in 10 years) – Under sharia ….
Ismail,
Hi-jacking a thread on someone else’s blog is just plain rude, whatever the topic. If you want to direct conversation to a particular topic, start your own blog.
JS,
Excellent point about the comparison to Sharia law. You made me laugh out loud.
“Republican infighting virtually guarantees that”
We’ve seen quite a bit more infighting from the Democrats of late. It’s hard to imagine that any one thing guarantees that the ’00s will be a blip on the historical timeline. If that turns out to be true it will be from various causes, not the least of which is the unpopularity of the current Republican President.
Adam Sharp – I don’t recall many Democrats calling for non-partisan redistricting when they were the majority. Come to think of it, I don’t remember any at all. Funny how being the minority party all of a sudden brings out calls to be “nonpartisan.”
There is no measure by which that’s true. Let’s wait and see how many primary challengers there are for incumbent Democrats vs. incumbent Republicans in the next few months. I forecast at least 400% more for Republicans.
That’s because many of the Democrats calling for non-partisan redistricting were not politically active a decade ago. Why wasn’t Adam calling for non-partisan redistricting in 1996? Why wasn’t I? Because I was 17 years old, heavily involved in Charlottesville politics, yes, but without the slightest concept of districts. I’m fairly sure that doesn’t make me a hypocrite. I don’t know how old Adam is, but his work with the VAYDs makes clear that he’s probably young enough that the same thing applies to him. That doesn’t make us hypocrites — it just makes us a new part of the changing face of the party.
The challenge for Virginia Democrats will for us to collectively remember to heed our calls for non-partisan redistricting when we regain the majority. I regard it as the #1 most important thing for us to do when that happens, and I intend (to the extent to which it would be meaningful for me to do such a thing) to be a thorn in the side of the party until we get it done.
I hope that Virginia Republicans will see the handwriting on the wall in a couple of years and institute nonpartisan redistricting on their own. That will soften the blow of becoming a minority party again, it will earn them goodwill from many Virginians, and it may ultimately prove to be their greatest legacy.
“That rapid population growth is also difusing to other parts of the state like Fredericksburg, Stafford and Fauquier. Those areas in the next 5-10 years will see a shift that may not be as heavy as NOVA right now but it will be close.”
Jack, there’s no reason you even need to look that far outside of the core areas of NoVA to see ripe opportunity. Consider if you will the Prince William County Delegate representation, taken as a whole:
Bob Marshall (R)
Scott Lingamfelter (R)
Jeff Frederick (R)
Jackson Miller (R)
Michele McQuigg (R)
I would safely surmise that there aren’t any even moderates in that list in a Callahan/Dillard/Albo/Devolites Davis sort of flavor.
“Adam Sharp – I don’t recall many Democrats calling for non-partisan redistricting when they were the majority. Come to think of it, I don’t remember any at all. Funny how being the minority party all of a sudden brings out calls to be “nonpartisan.”” – jon
I want to echo what Waldo said – I couldn’t vote until 2001, and didn’t consider myself an actual member of the Democratic Party until 2003. I know the party’s history isn’t good – you didn’t see Del. Cranwell calling for bipartisan redistricting in 1991, for example.
But as I said (“before the Democrats regain the majority and extend this bad karma for another decade”), I want the cycle of abuse and recrimination to end. If we institute non-partisan redistricting now, Democrats would be insane to make it partisan in 2011. Likewise, if non-partisan redistricting takes hold, the chances of Republicans throwing it away in 2021 (hypothetically) are low. But if Democrats simply return the favor in 2011, Republicans will do the same thing in 2021 … and so on, and so on.
I’m not a party loyalist – I think the Democratic Party can be more ethical, more progressive, more open, and more accountable. Non-partisan redistricting is one way to do that. And, as Waldo said, I will “be a thorn in the side of the party until we get it done.“