So based on the actual statistical performance of the 2 parties in Richmond, it is now proven that the Democrats have become the party seeking somewhat less legislation (and thus smaller expansion of government) while the Republicans have become the party seeking somewhat more legislation and more government.

Man, they’re just determined to follow in the footsteps of the DC Republicans, aren’t they? Come to think of it, I see no reason yet to think that the Democratic wave has crested. We keep thinking of November 2006 as the extent of the damage to the GOP, but we forget the fact that Virginia has odd-year elections and the real damage to the VA Republican party has been deferred because of that. Not prevented – deferred. Thus far, the Richmond Republicans appear dead-set on making all the same mistakes that the DC Republicans did. It’s like they were living in a cave last November. Let’s remember that a number of state legislatures shifted to Democratic party control in the 2006 elections.

All of the factors that comprised the Democratic party wave in November are still at work right now and while they may or may not be happening in 2008, it sure as hell looks like the wave will still be substantial for the VA mid-terms.

Posted by Jack on 1 February 02007 @ 9am

I agree with everything you wrote. In fact, my best hope right now for the GOP not to lose the WH in ‘08 and take another beating in Congress is for them to learn from the losses I expect the state GOPs to suffer in Novemeber in VA and the handful of other states that hold odd-year elections.

While not optimistic about their ability to learn (I think the WOPR in WarGames was a quicker study) it’s the only chance I see of affecting a course change and avoiding disaster.

Posted by Judge Smails on 1 February 02007 @ 11am

JS,

The effect may be somewhat moderated in VA by the fact that thus far, the VA Democrats have been just as slow to make moves to benefit from the wave as Republicans have been to prepare to fight it. There should be a major recruitment effort going on to field serious candidates even in districts that the Dems would normally take a pass on. I’m not seeing that happen.

I know someone who was asked last week by his local party’s executive committee to challenge a well-entrenched incumbent who’s district includes a lot of territory that has trended for Democrats recently. He passed on the offer. The question is why was it a local committee that did the asking? A serious, coordinated effort to maximize benefits from the wave should involve phone calls from Mark Warner and Tim Kaine. The same guy who says ‘no’ to the local committee will usually say ‘yes’ to a personal request from a governor or other party rock star.

Right now, Kaine should be doing everything he can to try and get himself a majority of support in the House. He should have his staff call every party chair in every GOP-held district, ask them who they want to run but can’t get, and then have Tim Kaine make all of those phone calls to get those guys in the race. Then make a list of the remaining fence-sitters and have Mark Warner and Jim Webb call them personally to up the pressure.

It seems like a total no-brainer and doesn’t involve much effort at all. Yet it’s not happening. The Democratic party leadership in VA is asleep at the wheel. Among their biggest assets right now is a wealth of star-power which they are not leveraging in even the simplest ways to make the most out of this continued wave.

Posted by Jack on 1 February 02007 @ 12pm

I know for a fact that in at least a few cases, the Governor has cultivated and met with HOD candidates in the Commonwealth.

In one case, the Governor has offered to help with fundraising for a candidate.

Posted by Mark Brooks on 2 February 02007 @ 1am

Mark,

He ain’t doing enough of it. I’m seeing good candidates stay out of races and phone calls are not happening.

Posted by Jack on 2 February 02007 @ 9am