It’s official: Mark Warner isn’t running for president.
This is, personally, a great disappointment. When I look at the field of contenders two years out, I don’t see much to get excited about. Mark Warner is the best balance of liberalism and conservatism, has the right experience, and certainly has the right vision. He’s become a great candidate in the past year. I never would have guessed he’d withdraw — or, rather, fail to enter — so early.
In his statement he says that his decision not to run has come from wanting to focus on family now. I’m not as quick to criticize that as I might have once been, having made the same decision myself not too long ago. But that is surely only part of the calculus. He has the same family now that he had last year. He’s explicit on one aspect of the decision:
This is not a choice that was made based on whether I would win or lose. I can say with complete conviction that — 15 months out from the first nomination contests — I feel we would have had as good a shot to be successful as any potential candidate in the field.
I’m not sure that I believe that. If he felt certain that he could win, he’d surely run. Deciding whether or not to run is a tradeoff, weighing the possibility of victory against the cost of running. Clearly he’s decided that his odds of winning are not great enough to support throwing his life into this for the next two years.
He’s clearly not done with politics, as he states explicitly:
My decision does not in any way diminish my desire to be active in getting our country fixed. It doesn’t mean that I won’t run for public office again.
I want to serve, whether in elective office or in some other way. I’m still excited about the possibilities for the future.
Perhaps he believes that he can’t get the nomination, particularly against a juggernaut like Sen. Hillary Clinton. Perhaps he worries that the race will be so ugly that everybody but the winner will emerge damaged goods, preventing him from even winning the consolation prize of VP. By not running, he’ll be squeaky clean when the nominee starts shopping around for running mates.
There’s been talk of Mark Warner running for governor again come 2009. I wouldn’t dismiss that possibility. That would no doubt come as a great disappointment to Sen. Creigh Deeds and Del. Brian Moran, each of whom have their eye on the governor’s seat. Perhaps he’s considering running for Sen. John Warner’s seat again. With Sen. Warner surely planning to retire, Gov. Warner would be a shoo-in. I don’t know of anybody else planning to run for that seat. (I’ve envisioned that as being Harris Miller’s chance to get back in the game, but I have no idea if he thinks that.)
When one door closes another one opens. If Mark Warner wants to devote his time and considerable resources to promoting Democratic candidates in Virginia, rather than Iowa, that’s a pretty great thing. Gov. Tim Kaine is unlikely to get anything accomplished without gaining a majority in either the House or the Senate come November of next year. Anything Warner can do to help with that would only enhance his legacy.
Sen. George Allen is out of the presidential race before he ever started, and Gov. Warner is out when he was just beginning. So ends the “Virginia is the mother of presidents” rumble in ’08 that many of us had hoped for.
I guess I can replace my Mark Warner license plate now. Too bad.
I’ve still got my fingers crossed for Barack Obama… if not him, then I’d basically prefer anyone other than Hillary.
I can only hope he’s deferring for a possible VP nod, instead of going the Edwards route (running and then withdrawing).
I’d like to think that this is happening because Warner knows something about Al Gore that the rest of us don’t. Given the current field of candidates I didn’t even have a second choice.
Edwards is a one-note lightweight who couldn’t even win his own state in the primary. Obama wants to ban all semi-automatics and make me into a criminal. Richardson always comes across as insincere and I’ve never liked him. Vilsack and Bayh are both third rate candidates who bring absolutely nothing to the table except a nice suit and a resume. Kerry obviously has no chance of winning the primary. Clarke has potential and I like him but it seems like if he was going to have momentum then it would have happened in ’04.
With Warner out, the real anti-Hillary has not yet arrived.
I feel like my dog died. :-( Very sad news for all of us Warner fans. I’m willing to bet there are some moderate R’s who are saddened by this as well. I can’t think of another candidate I could get behind right now but I’m not going to obsess over this loss yet. Let’s get Jim Webb elected first! We can cry in our beers after we’ve cheered our victory against G.F.Allen.
I must point out, Lou, that you have terrible luck with pets in general. Perhaps it’s rubbing off on your candidates. Maybe you could back Hillary?
(I kid!)
But it’s true — it’s a strikingly bad feeling. I feel like I had my political path charted for the next two — maybe ten — years. I knew who I was supporting. I knew who could win. I had a goal, I knew that goal could be realized, and I’d started to see the political world with that as the goal. Now? No goal. Nothing to hold together my disparate hopes. I got nothin’.
Waldo –
“I feel like I had my political path charted for the next two — maybe ten — years. I knew who I was supporting. I knew who could win. I had a goal, I knew that goal could be realized, and I’d started to see the political world with that as the goal. Now? No goal. Nothing to hold together my disparate hopes. I got nothin’.”
Yeah, my day has been like that, too. But I’m slightly comforted by the fact that most people in VA and the national Democratic party are also in the same boat. Here’s hoping the good guys land on their feet.
As a somewhat moderate Rep., I have to agree with Lou. I voted against Warner when he ran- but if he had had a second term, he would have trumped just about any Rep. that I could think of! As a governor, he seemed to be a leader with great character and he applied solid business principles while in office; as a national figure, he isn’t as polarizing as some of the other possibilities.
He’s still young. Maybe 2112 will be his year.
Darn. You know I meant 2012.
HillaryWarner08′, bank on it :-) She’s the best candidate you guys got.. & the only Anti Hillary is Condi…
Your analysis of Warner dropping out is dead on, he will be the perfect pick, because he will not have to say anything negative about Hillary…
Pure genius, and even if HillaryWarner08 loses, but yet they still carry VA, he can still run for Gov. again…
I’m hoping he’s planning to run for Senate in ’08 or Gov in ’09. Question: can he use his federal war chest in a statewide (Governor’s) race? Not that he couldn’t out-fund-raise anyone else in the state.
I’m worried that he’s stepping out because he’s made a veep deal. It’d be a shame because he brings so much more to the top of the ticket than the second slot, and because if he has made a deal, I’m afraid it’s with Hillary. She’s the only one “leading” enough to be worth dealing with, and if she wanted to eliminate one challenger, it’d be him.
I’m glad you asked about that — that’s a big question. I have some vague understanding that doing so is possible, but it seems to contradict my knowledge of state and federal campaign finance law. Perhaps somebody with a clue could enlighten us.
HillaryWarner08 oh, oh, how about Hillary Lieberman08, ummm stirs them, we can still “hack a war” kinda vibes… hmmm?
Ok, I’ll be frank, you’ll never take Florida without Lieberman on the ticket…
That is why “W” is our president…”the Florida Strategery” :-)
But then again, Mark Warner could play havoc campaigning with Bill Clinton anywhere in the south… Ok, Hillary Warner 08, and Lieberman is Secretary of State… That’s just a rumor, I didn’t hear it anywhere… Webb, secretary of the Navy.. He will do great with that “Sakaku Treaty” stuff that is just the talk of the Asian Politics…
When Castro dies, it seems to me that’ll likely be the end of the Republican reign in Florida, assuming nothing else major changes.
Castro Pubs move to Fl? Or next huge immigration crisis, of Cubans coming to US? That is hard to say… I see Civil War in them tea leaves, and we will need a strong President (aka Kennedy type) to save that situation…
Okay, I’m genuinely interested: why won’t the democrats take Florida without Liberman on the ticket?
I have to say, a Clinton/Lieberman ticket would be one democratic ticket that would almost certainly lose my vote. It’d be a far-right vs. center-right election, with the democrats on the side of censorship and the nanny-state, and the Republicans most likely on the side of populist hate and war rhetoric, though it depends on who they run.
That having been said, a Clinton/Lieberman ticket is very unlikely, as the most important thing about choosing a VP is to make the ticket geographically diverse, and Clinton and Lieberman — assuming he gets reelected — would both be coming from north-east states.
I’m guessing (and hoping) that Clinton loses the primary, since she can’t pander to liberals and there’ll be major questions about “electability.”
I guess he couldn’t pull off the financial support, and the Democratic Party is gonna be insistant on putting Hillary on the ticket, and shooting themselves (yet again) in the foot.
Looks like I might actually end up voting Republican in ’08 after all. And it’s too bad, because I’d really liked to have seen Warner running. I think he’s the only Democrat that could’ve won.
There are many reasons why Mark Warner withdrew. A lack of financial resources probably is not one of them. :)
Lack of financial resources certainly could have been one of them. Though Mark Warner is an extremely wealth man (quarter billion?) it doesn’t mean that he could have or would have been able to use that wealth in a run for President. You know that federal campaign restrictions limit what you can use yourself. It could very well have been that all of the fund raisers were lining up behind Hillary and MRW just couldn’t find a foothold. His independent wealth has very little to do with his ability to raise funds for a presidential or any federal campaign.
Actually, they don’t. It’s been attempted by Congress, but the SCOTUS has made clear (most recently in McConnell v. FEC) that they see spending limits as violations of the right to free expression. Only Vermont has (draconian) spending limits, and I believe even those was struck down a few months ago.
Whether or not it’s wise to self-fund a presidential primary campaign is a different discussion entirely.
Well, anyway- the point is that just because MRW is rich- doesn’t mean that financial resources are automatically not a problem for a possible MRW presidential campaign.
I could be wrong on this… but I’m almost 100% certain. Virginia campaign finance laws allow unlimited contributions from anyone, any PAC, any business.
Federal PACs are restricted in who they can give to in Federal races but not state contributions.
As such, I believe Forward Together PAC could give unlimited contributions to a state candidate, as long as that candidate disclosed the donation.
So, yes, Warner could use his Federal $ to run for Governor in 2009.
I think we can accept at face value Mark’s explanation; after a year of serious campaigning he has realized that he cannot run a nationwide campaign and be involved in his daughter’s lives.
Taking my sons to visit colleges (they are 1st and 3rd year, at Macalester and Earlham) was an experience I would not have missed – it was enjoyable, deeply satisfying and important. I can understand how that experience for Mark could have been a factor in making this decision.
He is making a choice that I admire.