Allen vs. Terry: History repeats itself.
- Jim Webb announces his campaign.
Sen. George Allen’s recent gaffes, Democratic challenger Jim Webb’s portrayal of him as a Washington insider, Webb’s fundraising troubles and recent rise in the polls…it all seems a little familiar.
If it seems familiar to me, it must seem downright eerie to the Allen campaign. Thirteen years ago this month, the same spectacle played itself out in much the same way. Only that time Allen was where Webb is now. And in Allen’s place was Mary Sue Terry.
June 1993
Democratic Attorney General Mary Sue Terry is running 18% ahead of Republican challenger George Allen, 49% to 31%. Allen had been nominated at the Republicans’ June 4-5 convention in Richmond, fresh off of losing his House seat post-redistricting. The conservative Richmond Times Dispatch has criticized the Republican ticket as “the most conservative ticket in memory,” with UVa political scientist Larry Sabato saying it was evidence that Virginia Republicans “would rather be right than govern.” Terry has $2.3M in the bank. Allen has nothing.
The Terry campaign decides to play it safe. They would simply ignore Allen, and outspend him clear through the campaign. In order to bait him into wasting money, Terry begins running TV ads, despite it being so early in the campaign season. Allen falls for the trap.
July
Allen takes out a $100,000 loan. Terry has ten times as much cash on hand. Allen can’t raise money without an independent poll showing that he has a shot at winning.
Terry pulls her TV ads in early July and, after the July 15 campaign finance disclosures, starts running them again to again bait Allen. Again, Allen falls for it.
August
The Allen campaign is privately concerned about whether they’ll even be able to pay the bills come October. There is no money.
August is a notoriously slow month in campaigns, and the press focuses on Terry’s utter financial domination of Allen. The Allen campaign pulls their ads on August 18, because they simply don’t have the money to continue.
August 23
Allen’s campaign makes a jaw-dropping gaffe. His campaign treasurer, James C. Wheat III, introduces Allen at a fundraising lunch that included Sen. Bob Dole as the guest of note. In listing the reasons why Allen would do a better job as governor than Terry, he cites the fact that Allen is married with children, whereas Terry is single. Neither Allen nor Wheat are apologetic when confronted by reporters after the luncheon.
The Terry campaign releases a new television ad promoting Terry as the only candidate for governor who “supports the death penalty and a five-day waiting period for the purchase of handguns.” The statement is accurate, but intentionally misleading: Allen supports the death penalty but not the waiting period.
The Allen campaign attacks Terry’s ad. The Terry campaign says nothing about Wheat’s remark.
August 27
Governor Wilder publicly encourages Terry to spend less time raising money and more time shaking hands. Black leaders have felt that Terry was taking black support for granted, and Wilder is clearly agreeing with them. This public rebuke puts Terry in an awkward position, which is where all public interactions with Wilder seem to leave politicians.
August 28
The Richmond Times-Dispatch reinterprets the AFL-CIO’s late-June refusal to endorse Terry. No longer is it a sign that she’s liked among business leaders but, instead, it’s a sign that she lacks support from the base.
August 30
The Fraternal Order of Police, a day after a bizarre closed-door debate, endorses Allen, despite having twice endorsed Terry for Attorney General.
August 31
Mason-Dixon releases a poll showing that Terry is just 6% ahead of Allen, 46%/40%. VCU’s Bob Holsworth describes this as “the battle for the undecided vote,” and says that “it’s going to be very difficult for her to run like an incumbent.”
September
More independent polls indicate that the race is tied, as it remains throughout the month.
The Terry campaign finds itself unable to change course. Modifications to the strategy are interpreted as desperation.
Money starts coming into the Allen campaign.
October
Allen and Terry begin attacking each other via television ads.
Allen paints Terry as an corrupt political insider, part of an establishment giving out no-bid contracts to campaign donors. He presents himself as anti-establishment and an outsider, as he has in every campaign he’s ever run.
Terry portrays Allen as lacking integrity, claiming that he’s making promises he can’t deliver and even accuses the campaign of theft.
Allen pulls ahead in the polls. The Richmond Times-Dispatch puts him at 17% ahead, though most polls agree it’s closer to 7%. Respondents see Allen as trustworthy and an agent of change.
A great deal of money is coming into the Allen campaign.
By late in the month the Terry campaign was working with Democratic Party Chairman Mark Warner to label the Republican ticket as “extreme.”
Pundits say that Terry never really had a chance. Sabato says that Terry may have hit a glass ceiling that prevents women from becoming governor.
November
George Allen wins overwhelmingly: 58% to 41%. The campaign has money left over. Terry wins just six counties and ten cities. She loses her home of Southwest Virginia.
A senior Allen staffer explains the win as such:
The candidate [who] controls the terms of the debate will most often win the election. The single most important factor [in a campaign] is controlling the agenda, and we were able to do that. [...] We stuck to our message and let many of the attacks [on Allen] go by so we wouldn’t get off track. We did not want to get into a debate about abortion or drunk driving. [...] That’s why we responded to [Terry's] attacks by saying that they were just attempts to distract voters away from the real issues and from her record.
- Sen. Allen in his office. By Katherine Ruddy. Used under the Attribution-NonCommercial license.
I have to wonder how conscious that the Allen campaign is of these parallels, and to what extent they’re capable of avoiding repeating Terry’s mistakes. August’s progress would seem to indicate that the campaign is frozen in the headlines of history, perhaps as powerless to change course as Terry was those thirteen years ago.
Credit for this timeline goes to Thomas Carsey’s “Campaign Dynamics: The Race for Governor,” a fine work of political science that is also a remarkable look at the 1993 governor’s race.
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