Kent Germany, host of “For the Record”, asked me an interesting question today. What sort of interest is there in seeing Mark Warner as the Democratic nominee on a national level? Do Democrats other than Virginians regard him as a solid candidate, or are we blinded by loyalty to him? It’s clear to me that most Virginia Democrats are all about the man — I include myself in that group — but it’s far less clear to me that anybody other than pundits are paying him any mind at this point.
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The insiders poll found here seems to indicate he has some national pull. He’s still a distant second to Hillary,though.
I think right now he’s the only democrat that has a chance to take votes away from the republican’s in the “red states.” Of course if the Republican’s smarten up and nominate someone like Guliani (sp?) or McCain. Then even with Warner as the Democratic nominee it becomes a pretty close race (with Hillary as a nominee- Republican’s win no matter what.) And I’m voicing my opinion not as a virginian, but instead as a moderate californian.
I’m a Virginia Democrat who would not vote for Warner for President. As chair of the National Governor’s Association he pushed for cuts in Medicaid, the only thing keeping many low income folks with disabilities alive. As Vriginia’s Governor, he cut 20% from the community mental health budget that was already one of the lowest in the country and never put it back. He also appointed a terrible pro-institution forensic psychiatrist as Mental Health Commissioner. Warner did nothing to improve the shameful 80% of poverty level Virginia required for Medicaid eligibility unlike most states including some that go up to 150 and 200% of the poverty level for eligibility.
No Warner, no Hillary Clinton for me. Give me Russ Feingold or Nancy Pelosi.
I recently saw an article in the Progressive which referred to Warner as “anodyne” which I thought was discouraging. I wonder though if it is a good thing to be the front runner this early- HRC could be the next Howard Dean.
HillaryWarner08… vs. RiceAllen08 A match of the Titans…. or AllenGuiliani08.. You got the NY/VA struggle for the hearts and political minds of Amurica (meant to spell it that way)
Allen peaked. He’s done, whether he wins in November or not.
Warner is respectful, honest, and intelligent, and I think it shows. He has charisma and a good record. I’d say he would be very electable.
Congrats on the interview! The tie looked fine to me.
Waldo – I haven’t seen anything about McCain in Lynchburg with Falwell. Any thoughts?
I would say that most interest in Mark Warner is in Virginia. I’m not sure how much national recognition he has, honestly. Of course, my perspective is skewed- I live in Alexandria and you can’t even begin to imagine the pedestal Warner is on.
Waldo, when you go to St. Elmo’s next Saturday, check out the photo on the wall of the shop’s owner with Mark Warner- about 95% of the small businesses in Alexandria have those. It’s a little crazy, because everyone is just so in love with the concept of “Mark Warner” – the Virginia Democrat who won a red state- that I think we’re starting to lose sight of what he’s really talking about, and concentrating more on the “mythology” of Mark Warner. You know, that solid gold 10 feet tall guy who floats above the ground, converts Republicans to Democrats with a single glance, etc, etc.
Other than that I’m not sure anyone other than the political junkies is paying attention to him. (But perhaps the question now is, “Are you still coming next weekend to Alexandria? :) )
I should confess that I’m not sure that I’ll be there on Saturday. I have a choice between activities. I can either head upstate for that, and then leave early to head down to the Richmond bloggers’ gathering, or I can spend Friday-Sunday down in Damascus for Trail Days. I’m really leaning towards heading South for the weekend to hang out with some old friends, spend some quality time down in God’s country, and maybe visit a few bloggers down thataway.
I only read about it after I saw your comment and, frankly, not really. :) I read a few other blog entries on it, and just nodded my head. This is, like most matters, something on which I don’t have an original thought.
I guess I am mystified at why some think Mark Warner has charisma.
If Hillary Clinton appears anywhere on the ballot – top or bottom of the ticket – then this committed Democrat will write in ‘Mickey Mouse.’
What I’ve been seeing is strong interest in Mark Warner among insiders and political junkies. For example, the Daily Kos has ran a couple of straw polls that placed Mark Warner in second place, right behind Wesley Clark with his dedicated cadre of netroots activists. But most Democrats – like most Americans – have no idea who most of the potential candidates are this far out from the primaries. This includes Mark Warner.
At this point in the last cycle most Demcorats had no idea who John Kerry, John Edwards or Howard Dean were. If average people talked about the ’04 election at all at that time, they were speculating about Al Gore and Hillary Clinton dominating the field. Likewise, in 1998 most Americans outside of Texas were only dimly aware that George Bush had a son who was Governor of that state.
Let’s also look back at this point in the cycle ahead of the ’92 election. Nobody knew who Bill Clinton was.
My overall point is that the big names several years out from a Presidential election are usually not a very useful indicator of who the nominees will be. The one exception would be when you have either an incumbant or a sitting Vice-President in the race. If you must read tea-leaves, then fundraising and major vulnerabilities in terms of votes, personality or background are probably the way to go. A relative national unknown with a solid resume – like Bill Clinton, John Kerry or Mark Warner – is generally going to have a better chance of going the distance than someone like Hillary Clinton who’s image is carved in stone and has essentially no room to expand her constituency. A guy like Mark Warner can rise as high as he is able to control his own definition. But Hillary hit her ceiling a long time ago. She may dominate polls right now with as much as 40% for the primary, dwarfing all the other contenders in the teens or single digits. But that 40% is already her maximum and it won’t be enough once the field narrows to a 2 man race.
I’d like to see a Warner/Edwards or Edwards/Warner ticket. A conservative neighbor of mine sports a bumper sticker alongside a pro “W” sticker which reads “Run Hillary Run” and they’re right. She has no chance of being elected president.