Up in Fairfax, I understand, the county government is a big deal. People spend ridiculous amounts to get elected to office there. The chairman of their Board of Supervisors is, I learned this evening, one Gerry Connolly. He, I gather, has an annual St. Patrick’s Day event for Fairfax Democrats. At this year’s event a straw poll was held to get some concept of support for Harris Miller and James Webb, each of whom are seeking the Democratic nomination to challenge Sen. George Allen.
Miller should win this in a walk. Fairfax is Miller’s home turf. He lives there. It’s where the high-rolling tech CXOs call home, where Democrats are off-the-charts liberal, and the population base for the statewide comeback that so benefited Governor Kaine in the last election. Harris Miller was the chair of the Fairfax County Democratic Committee for six years.
Webb won with 58% of the vote, 196-143.
This is far from scientific. It’s not externally valid, it’s probably not even internally valid. But Webb? The former Republican? From Southwest Virginia? Served under Reagan?
At a bare minimum, this has got to be a real embarrassment for Miller. At worst, it represents that his base may not lie where he believes it to. In which case, one must ask — where is Harris Miller’s base?
The best parallel that I can muster, which may help fellow Fifth District Democrats, would be if Bern Ewert were to lose a straw poll to Al Weed in Bedford or Franklin County. Central to Bern’s campaign is that he’s well-known and well-liked in the Roanoke area; such a result would serve as a terrible blow to the legitimacy of his campaign. (I don’t mean to suggest that any such thing is likely — this comparison simply helped me to appreciate what I think went on in the U.S. Senate race this evening.)
It’s funny how a silly little thing like a straw poll of 339 people at a single party can be so important in a race. Maybe this poll has shown Harris Miller to be a candidate without a base in his own home town. Or maybe we’re just grasping at straws.
These types of gatherings are meaningless anyway. It’s a test of organizational support perhaps, but not the true grassroots (who could be getting their kids to practice, driving home, working still, etc.)
Very premature to start calling the Miller/Webb primary called IMO. I’d like to see a scientific poll, or perhaps a list of Democratic committee chairman endorsements first before sizing up the race at all.
I don’t see James “Tailhook” Webb surviving against George Allen in Virginia. Not even making him bleed a little.
James “Tailhook” Webb vs. George “Noose” Allen?
Sounds like a real nickname barn-burner.
And you see Harris “Outsource” Miller doing much bettter?
Yes, tonight’s news means James Webb’s position has improved, which suits me fine. How much remains to be seen. It’s still a little early to say this means Harris Miller’s candidacy is kaput, as candidate Webb is still rather green at this game.
However, I must say the discordant sense of entitlement some of the Miller supporters have been asserting seems a bit more absurd with tonight’s straw poll results.
Harris Miller is an outstanding Democrat. He has been active in the party for 30 years and lead through some of it’s greatest triumphs and tragedies. Whatever happens, Democrats will support him in the future whether or not he bows out of the Senate race.
Republicans would very much like to encourage the ignorant belief that James Webb had some involvement in “Tailhook”. He did not. James Webb asserted every effort to control problems that he saw potentially arising as women were integrated more and more into the Navy. He himself was responsible for creating more billetts for women in the Navy than any Secretary before or since. Tailhook took place years after he had left the Reagan Administration.
Sorry Shaun. Try to find a different approach to smearing Mr. Webb. Maybe you can get Taylor Watkins to get you some purple heart bandaids and help the Republican party to continue to dishonor veterans.
Shaun’s comment isn’t just disingenuous, it’s also a clear sign that James Webb has won another crucial early test, the “Candidate the GOP Is Afraid Of” straw poll.
Take it as you will… as a partisan, Allen is going to beat either one to a pulp.
Outside looking in, we’re ready for Webb. We know more about Webb than he knows about himself.
We want Webb. Give us Tailhook Webb!
Miller… I don’t know much about, other than he’s got plenty of money and is embraced by the Democratic base (Leslie Byrne aside, who is probably looking at toning down her “poor man’s Hillary Clinton” image, hence the Webb endorsement).
In the end, it’s not my call to make, nor is it something that I would encourage Republicans to “crossover” and vote in a Democratic primary to help determine.
In the end, Webb has more baggage regardless of the issues, and when you switch parties you’d better have a good reason for doing so, otherwise it’s a character and judgement flaw.
Shaun, this looks like a REALLY bad attempt to scare Democrats into voting for Harris Miller. Just so you know.
I agree with Shaun, when Virgil Goode switched parties it really showed how flawed his character and judgement were. Here, here! Shaun!
When an election will be a base election among party faithful such as the primary, opinion leaders in the party are an important source of support and motivation to the grass roots. The opinion leaders in Northern Virginia attend this event. It is as important as the Mephasis Republican Presidential straw poll and is equivalent to Frist having lost that to an unknown.
Libertas, gotta read:
when you switch parties you’d better have a good reason for doing so
Two parts there… but specifics be damned when there’s political points to be earned, right?
Dannyboy: If I argued that Miller should drop out, I’m certain Miller’s supporters would only claim that the Republicans want Webb because he’s a weaker candidate, etc. and that it too would be “a REALLY bad attempt to scare Democrats,” as you so kindly posed it.
That statement is immaterial. Setting aside politics, I only offer a perspective from the outside looking in. As a partisan, heck – Allen’s got ’em both beat. But as an analyst… Miller’s probably your better candidate at first glance.
Of course, keep in mind that as a conservative who appreciates guys who stand up on what they believe, I prefer authenticity in a candidate. So a Harris Miller is much more preferable than a candidate such as James Webb (or any moderate) who approaches political philosophies like a buffet bar; a little from the liberals, a little from the conservatives, mix and match, what-have-you.
All I am adding to the conversation is (1) the straw poll is a reflection of organization only and nothing more, (2) I personally feel Miller is a stronger candidate on paper, and (3) calling for either candidate to drop out is little more than political shenanigans on either side.
That all of this is coming from a Republican may cloud someone’s judgement on that opinion (for better or worse), but there it is nonetheless! :)
Shaun,
You do know that Allen polled at 49% for reelection a few weeks ago, right? And perhaps you will recall that Allen won his seat with only 52% in 2000. That was back when Republican majorities in both state houses were huge, Jim Gilmore was Governor and life was sweet for the VA GOP. The question is, has the electorate in Virginia moved by more than 2 points in the Democrats’ favor since 2000? A pair of 5 & 6 point wins by Democrats running for Governor since then would sure suggest that it has. I’m trying to think of what George Allen has done since 2000 to broaden his constituency beyond partisan Republicans and I’m really coming up with a big fat zero. Maybe he’s hoping that the astronomical record defecit that he helped run up will bring the independant fiscal conservatives rallying to his side? Help me out here because I’m having trouble seeing how this cake-walk that you suggest fits in with the facts on the ground.
Dude, wake up. George Allen is in as big trouble as a scandal-less incumbant possibly can be. His situation is not unlike that of Chuck Robb’s in early 2000. Your swagger is not justified by a particularly large stick in hand.
As for Webb’s party switch, good luck running against that. The only people who will really hold that against him are the 35-40% of Virginians who are dyed-in-the-wool Republicans and wouldn’t vote for Jesus Christ himself with a D beside his name. The moderates and independants who have been deciding most races in VA of late find their own party allegiences rather flexible and any attacks against Webb on that basis will not only fall flat but perhaps be taken a little personally.
The National Review is not only afraid of Webb but it’s writers have openly questioned who they would vote for in this race. Y’all are in trouble here. I think the best you can hope for is that Webb will make amateurish mistakes and bring himself down.