Oddly, Survey USA has posted the results of a poll that are even newer than the poll they released earlier today. You’ll recall that they showed Lt. Governor Tim Kaine up a whopping 9% in that poll. Now they place the race at 50% Kaine, 45% Kilgore, based on a three-day sample, but say that if only interviews from this evening are included, it’s tied. (There weren’t enough interviews this evening for the data to be statistically valid, though.)
They write:
Interviews in the Virginia governor’s race conducted by SurveyUSA tonight Monday 11/7 (but before President Bush appeared in Richmond) show a swing back towards Republican candidate Jerry Kilgore, causing SurveyUSA to now update its final projection in the Virginia Governor’s Contest. This morning, based on interviews conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday (11/4/05 through 11/6/05), SurveyUSA released data that showed Democrat Tim Kaine 9 points ahead of Kilgore. However, because of intra-day volatility in that data, SurveyUSA continued to poll throughout the afternoon and evening today Monday 11/7. When interviews from the most recent 3 days — Saturday, Sunday and today Monday — are averaged, Kaine’s lead shrinks now to 5 points. When interviews from just the past two days — Sunday and today Monday — are averaged, the contest is closer yet. When interviews from Monday only are considered, the contest is tied, but the Margin of Sampling error from just the one day of interviewing is high enough, and the results aberrant enough, that SurveyUSA is uncomfortable reporting just Monday-only data. For the record, SurveyUSA goes into the clubhouse with its final projection (based on Saturday, Sunday and Monday polling): Kaine 50%, Kilgore 45%. A closer outcome still is possible.
In an related poll, 95% of Virginia pundits agree that Survey USA doesn’t know their ass from their elbow.