CHECK MARSHALL AGAIN!!! LOST BT LESS THAN 100 VOTES!!!

Posted by Trish on 9 November 2005 @ 1am

15,752 to 12,559.

Would that it were not so.

Posted by Waldo Jaquith on 9 November 2005 @ 1am

The state site is set up so that you can view it county by county. It happens that I was looking at Loudon only. :( I thought Deeds had won also, for a moment there.

Posted by Trish on 9 November 2005 @ 2am

Hey Waldo, It was good to see you and Amber in Richmond. I still have to pinch myself every half hour or so…. but I was feeling really good about this whole thing today so I shouldn’t be surprised! ALMOST all my dreams came true (sad about Werkheiser and Roemmelt and Barg). Onward to 2008! :-)

Posted by Lou on 9 November 2005 @ 3am

It is interesting that Roemmelt would have squeeked a victory if it was just Loudon County that was in the 13th. Sadly my area of Prince William is horribly wing-nut centric, and Marshall has a nearly 15% lead in Prince William (yech!). That is a huge improvement over last year’s horrible results in the same district for Kerry, but not enough.

We had reason to believe the gap (11.3% tonight) was much narrower 12 days ago, (4-7% then) – and that makes me think that some voters fell for the very misleading claims Marshall made in his flyers. We’ve been bombarded with flyers listing progress in traffic/roads issues in the area, and all worded as if Marshall had not actually voted against most of the listed improvments! Clearly we need to do a better job calling him out on this sort of deception.

Interestingly, Black used the same tactic in television ads, and even that was not enough to bail his slimy butt out of the can. I plan to start volunteering in Dr. Roemmelt’s next campaign right away (or as soon as he’s willing to run again).

Posted by Scott Nolan on 9 November 2005 @ 3am

So…

a six-point loss (for Kilgore) is being defeated “soundly.”

a four-point loss (for Werkheiser) is a “narrow defeat.”

Just checking to make sure I’ve got the definitions correct. I had no idea that a two-point difference in the margin meant so much.

Posted by I. Publius on 9 November 2005 @ 8am

Context is important. Kaine won with more than 50% of the vote in a 3-way race, which was generally seen as neck and neck. So, sure, “soundly” works.

Werkheiser lost to a long-entrenched incumbent by 756 votes, so I’ll buy “narrow defeat”. It’s certainly close enough that, as Waldo suggests, Werkheiser deserves a re-match in two years, if he wants it.

Posted by Duke on 9 November 2005 @ 9am

Yep, it’s all about the numbers. 6% of the whole of Virginia is a hell of a lot more than 756 votes.

You may be bitter, IP, but don’t blame it on me.

Posted by Waldo Jaquith on 9 November 2005 @ 9am

I am upset, looks like Deeds is not going to make it. (Recount?)

We lost Kaine voters! Goddamn it we lost voters! I mean they didnt even vote, they walked in the both and voted for Gov and nothing else!

Look at the difference in turn out for the Governor and the AG, 44.28 vs 43.38.

We had huge turn out here in Albemarle I worked the Crozet precinct and we had over 50% turn out. I watched them count the ballots and we beat the Republicans across the ticket 3 to 2. But it looks like we still lost .25% of our voters in AG race, although compared to others we did good.

Look at a precinct like Martinsville: voter turnout of 45.56% for Governor and a 43.78 for AG. My girlfriend worked down there and was pissed because they had a policy of no sample ballots. Where else did this go on?

This is how we lost the AG, we didnt cordinate the coordinated campaign enough. Its a fucking travesty.

Posted by Jon on 9 November 2005 @ 9am

Waldo, in your exuberance, I think you transported Gingrich ten years into the future.

Posted by Jon on 9 November 2005 @ 9am

D’oh. Let’s go with “exhaustion” over “exuberance.” :) Corrected accordingly — thank you, Jon.

Posted by Waldo Jaquith on 9 November 2005 @ 9am

“So…
a six-point loss (for Kilgore) is being defeated “soundly.”
a four-point loss (for Werkheiser) is a “narrow defeat.””

Hey, at least we arent calling it a mandate eventhough his 6 point margin is larger than George Bush’s in 2004

Posted by UVA08 on 9 November 2005 @ 10am

Jon,

We didn’t ‘lose Kaine voters.’ There really are more self-identified Republicans in Virginia then Democrats. What happened is that we reached a good number of Republicans who would normally vote a straight Republican ticket and convinced them that Tim Kaine was the better man than Kilgore in this case. Jerry Kilgore was a weak candidate in nearly every sense. He never got his base excited and was never able to erase their suspicions that he is fundmentally a weak person. So a decisive number of them decided that they were going to make an exception this time and vote for Kaine.

Even if Creigh loses – and there’s no reason to come to a conclusion either way yet – this has been an amazing election for Virginia Democrats. We won the Governor’s mansion again in a decisive victory, the AG race is a coin toss and even uber-liberal Leslie Byrne came within a point of victory. Plus we picked up at least one seat in the General Assembly. That’s pretty goddamned good considering that Virginia is supposed to be the reddest of red states. We were the underdogs, 10 points behind last summer. We kicked ass. Don’t think that we screwed anything up here.

As long as I’m rambling, I’d like to say to Republicans reading this that we know perfectly well that this is not a ‘mandate.’ It’s a win and even a decisive one. But this 6 point spread is no more of a mandate than Bush’s anemic 2 point spread was. The Republican party still represents a whole lot of Virginians and you deserve to have your voices heard. We’re not going to go for any of your homophobia stuff or bizarre sex laws. But I seem to recall that once upon a time the GOP was interested in things like improving transportation, creating jobs, reducing the role of government in people’s lives, etc. In fact, I think you still want to get these things done but most of your leadership locally and nationally has forgotten all about it in favor of war profiteering, torture and a bunch of other crap that has nothing to do with real conservatism. Let’s work on all that stuff together for a few years until the next election. Then you can get back to making shit up about us.

Posted by ATA on 9 November 2005 @ 10am

What are these plural seats that we have picked up? All I can confirm is Poisson’s victory and an independent that knocked off an Republican. Is this independant someone who will caucus with the Democrats?

Posted by Jack on 9 November 2005 @ 10am

[...] — Waldo is happy with the victory, and implores the Dems to get to work on 2006. That’s good advice for our guys as well. [...]

Posted by Commonwealth Conservative » Around the blogosphere on 9 November 2005 @ 10am

ATA,

I see your points, but you are not carefully looking at the numbers. There was a larger turn out in the Gov than AG, and a very significant differance in some areas (in heavly Democratic areas, I might add).

State wide about 1.10% of the people who where motivated to get up off their ass, go down to a polling place and mark their ballot for Governor, did not even bother to vote AG. They didnt vote Republican, they didnt vote Democratic.

My examples where:

Albemarle (becoming sold Dem): we handed out sample ballots to our Dem voters: .25% differance in turnout. We beat the whole Republican ticket 3 to 2.

Martinsville (solid Dem): no sample ballots: a whopping 2.5% difference in turn out between Gov and AG. This is a city that voted 2 to 1 for Kaine. Now please tell me how this didnt hurt us?

Jon

ps
the most resent sbe: McDonnel 50.01%, Deeds 49.91%, with 99.84% reporting. Looks like Deeds got another 1000 or so in the last coupld of hours.

Posted by Jon on 9 November 2005 @ 11am

ATA,

Let me add this as well:

The party identifications in this state is actually pretty much split 1/3 between Dems, Repubs, and Independents, it is not a Republican state, its a CONSERVATIVE state. That might sound like splitting hairs, but in an election like this one (and future elections) it is very important.

Now I am assuming that because Kaine has won with such a large number that those people where potential Deeds voters.

This compounded by the fact that I bet Deeds got a lot of Republican voters: I personally know of 5 in my own very conservative family. Not to mention the people I met working the polls, going door to door, and phone banking.
In this area the Daily Progress’s indorsment went a long way!

Plus, Deeds is simply more conservative than Kaine: guns, death penalty, you name it.

So consider that a relatively liberal Democratic candidate (at least on the dp and guns) got more support than a relatively conservative Democratic candidate, in a CONSERVATIVE state.

Deeds could have gotten more of those Kaine voters, and we NEED to get them next time.

I am not complaining, I am just saying we need to do better.

Jon
by the way I think that I am a differnt Jon than the other Jon on here so call me Jon-P

Posted by Jon on 9 November 2005 @ 11am

Jon-P,

I see your point about the sample ballot differential. You’re right – more sample ballots could have made a very slight yet significant difference in the margin of the AG race.

As far as Creigh being more conservative than Tim is concerned, this is true. I think that voters knew this. The difference between the 2 races is the fact that Kilgore was a weak candidate and McDonnell wasn’t. A lot of conservatives looked at the AG race, saw a pair of conservative candidates and decided that they’d be happy with either guy so they let party affiliation break the tie. Creigh probably did as well as he did because of the NRA endorsement.

I really, really, really want Creigh to win AG. I think he’d make the perfect guy to run for John Warner’s seat in ‘08 (assuming that John Warner retires). But he’s not going to be a viable candidate unless he’s been AG first.

Posted by ATA on 9 November 2005 @ 11am

Lets look at this in a different light.

Lets take a look at Martinsville and Roanoke City. If Deeds could have gotten just half of the people who didn’t vote for AG he could have had at least 150 more votes. That is just two cities! Two heavly Democratic cities, so I am assuming that we could have actually have recieved more!

I bet you with McDonnell only leading him 1,900 votes, Mr. Deeds wished he had those 150 extra votes.

God look at Fairfax county: conceivably he could have gotten another 900 out of Fairfax alone.

I don’t know, maybe it would be impossible to squeeze out that extra 1 to 2%, but if only we could keep our loses down to .25! We would have quite a machine to push us over in these tight races.

Posted by Jon-P on 9 November 2005 @ 11am

Jack: What are these plural seats that we have picked up?

32nd District – Dave Poisson over Dick Black
41st District – Dave Marsden won to replace retiring Republican Jim Dillard
67th District – Chuck Caputo defeated Chris Craddock, who beat incumbent Gary Reese in the Republican primary.

I am personally very pleased to have had a hand in getting Caputo to run, and to have worked for Marsen early on.

Posted by Jim E-H on 9 November 2005 @ 12pm

ATA,

Do you think if Deeds losses, would he still be a viable canidate for Governor?

Jon-P

Posted by Jon-P on 9 November 2005 @ 12pm

Just a note that Kaine won by the exact same percentage as his predecessor. My take is that these factors affected the outcome (in order of influence): the fact that he ran as more conservative than he really is, the media’s inflation of Kilgore’s admittedly inappropriate negativity/deceptiveness (and giving Kaine a pass on his own), Kilgore’s inherent inability to motivate his base.

There is no “sea change” in VA as some here seem to think. It’s par for the course in my view. And it’s looking more and more like the Republicans might take the Lt. Governor’s seat, something they didn’t have last term.

Then there’s the net -2 Republican, +1 Democrat, +1 Independent seats in the House of Delegates.

All in all I think the election was a wash, some seat swapping, if you will.

The main factor responsible for the current trend towards leftism (I refuse to call it liberalism) is that leftists are moving in from different parts of the country and settling into our cities, mainly Northern VA.

VA is changing, no doubt, with more and more leftists moving from elsewhere mainly into Northern VA and other cities.

That said, there are a lot of conservatives (myself included) that want the Republicans to take a different course than they are taking, and that course ISN’T further left, as they seem to be doing in their national politics (increased spending for example).

Posted by Darntétn on 9 November 2005 @ 12pm

Darntootn,

You may well be unhappy with the course that Republicans are taking in their national politics, but there’s nothing “left” about increased spending without finding funding sources. There’s nothing liberal, progressive, leftist (or conservative, hard-line or rightwing, for that matter) about these free-lunchers. Their politics are the politics of personal and corporate greed and corruption. There’s nothing ideological about the politics of the DeLays, Abramoffs, Cunninghams, Goodes, etc. Their only interests are money and power.

I welcome responsible opposition and debate over the role of government vs. free-market forces in the U.S. Too bad that such intellectually honest debate is so rare.

Posted by Duke on 9 November 2005 @ 1pm

Jon-P,

I was just talking with someone about that a few hours ago. I think so, especially if Bolling is the Republican nominee. When I see a candidate come within a coin-toss of victory, I say that the guy usually deserves another shot. Look at Mark Warner. He lost his Senate run, but still bounced back to become the most popular governor in America and a major Presidental candidate. Where would Virginia be right now if we didn’t give rising talents a second chance? Probably watching Governor Earley congratulate Governor-elect Jerry Kilgore on his victory.

My real concern is who we’re going to run for John Warner’s seat in ‘08. Creigh will be perfect if he wins this AG race, but if not then I don’t think he will have the stature we’d prefer in a candidate for Senate. On the other hand, if Warner’s seat does open up with his retirement and McDonnell scrapes out an AG win this week, then basically you’re going to see Bolling run for governor and McDonnell run for Senate or the other way around. I can’t think of anyone else on the Republican bench who would be able to seek those nominations successfully. If I’m prepared to back Creigh running against either of those guys for Governor, then why not for the same match-up for the Senate?

If Tim has a phenomenal first few years, then maybe we could run him for Senate and Creigh for Governor.

By the way, as far as I can tell we really did not pick up a few seats. We had a net change of only +1 seats for the Democrats, a -2 seats for the GOP and a +1 for an independant. This is good but not earth-shattering. I don’t know which party the indepenant will caucus with, but we’d better start promising him or her their choice of committee appointment to join up. Digging up that one extra seat would get us to 40 seats and earn us an extra spot on every committee.

Posted by ATA on 9 November 2005 @ 3pm

Not sure where you saw bitterness, Waldo. But if you want to Make Shit Up&#153, hey – it’s your blog.

Like many Republicans, I was never quite enthused about Kilgore, and his loss is no big deal. A Kaine governorship will be easily bearable, as was Warner’s. Frankly, Warner has been popular because he governed Virginia in much the same way Clinton governed America in the 90s — he didn’t do much, so he couldn’t screw anything up. Virginians, by and large, want government to keep the hell out of their lives, and they don’t believe that a government program is the best solution for anything. Warner governed that way, either because that’s what he believes or (more likely) the GOP-controlled GA didn’t give him much choice. They won’t give Kaine much choice, either.
The only thing that worries me about the next four years is if a condemned man legitimately deserves to have his death sentence commuted, will Kaine be able to do that, or will he sign off on the execution because of the pressure to keep his word? This prospect should give any person chills.

If anything, I’m a little disappointed that Byrne lost. A McDonnell-Byrne contest in ‘09 would’ve been fantastic. Almost as good as if Hillary gets the nod in ‘08.

Like many other clear-thinking people have noted, this election is more status quo than anything else. The GA will look virtually identical; we go from 2 out of 3 state officeholders being Democrats to 2 out of 3 being Republicans. (IOW, not much to see here, folks… let’s move along).

And has anyone noticed that when Republicans lose, they blame themselves, their candidate, their campaign errors, etc… as opposed to what Democrats do (see RK, in reference to Byrne & Deeds)? More often than not, the reasons given are Republican dirty tricks, voter fraud, voter intimidation or suppression, illegal campaign dollars, etc., etc… pass the buck, blame somebody else. This is a consequence of the 2000 Florida debacle and the way Sore-Loserman handled the aftermath of losing. I hope it’s not a permanent fixture of the Democratic political landscape, because it’s really pathetic, not to mention being a significant factor contributing to voter apathy.

Posted by I.Publius on 9 November 2005 @ 3pm

Yeah Republicans are pretty good at holding themselves responsible when they run bad campaigns (you know because they are so responsible) . . . oh whoops almost forgot, that damn liberal media, I thought it was always their fault when things went wrong with campaigns or wars or natural disasters?

Its pretty amazing how quickly the Republican memes spread. Funny that Waldo posted the McCellan piece. Lets call it the Republican Mind-Meld.

“Yeah, its not such ah biggy, we didn’t like that Kilgore guy and who wants the Governorship anyway” . . .ohhh, thats why the Republican’s raised so much money!? because they didn’t like Kilgore, hmmmmm, funny way to show your dissatisfaction?

Oh and yes, please gives us McDonnell-the sodomy was so good I cant remember it. Please, just one campaign where we can nail him for being a medieval theocratic nut-job . . . please? I really missed that this time.

Posted by Jon-P on 9 November 2005 @ 5pm

One final steaming pile of the campaign season left by IP freely.

It’s like having my yearbook signed in soggy yellow.

Whatever will we do with no elections for 12 full months?

Posted by Josh Chernila on 9 November 2005 @ 5pm

I.P. We defeated 3 of the most extreme candidates on the ballot (Yes, I said we, if you think the Dems didn’t have anything to do with the Waddell victory, keep smoking). Deeds is only 410 down at the moment with counting still going on…provisional ballots – the sort of Democracy you don’t like.

We blame you when the facts prove that – and the fliers, phone calls, and other illegal activities aren’t things we are shoving under the rug anymore – we are going to call you on it each and every time you do it.

Posted by Bill Kuster on 13 November 2005 @ 1pm