A pseudonymous poster provided a really insightful comment earlier today. Clearly a lot of time and thought was put into it. While I don’t agree with everything said, I think it’s deserving of wider exposure. Here it is, in whole.
First, the response ad you cite and link is not the response ad. That ad ran last summer after some much milder attacks on rural radio, etc. It has not run since that buy. If this was the response, it would already be playing on your friendly television as the stations already have the tape of it. It’s not rolling; it’s not the response. And knowing the media fairly well, Kaine would have been tipped about Kilgore’s attack (which started today) and by day’s end they could have directed their media buy to shift the old ad into rotation. You might want to correct this assertion Waldo. [Ed.: I did so, subsequent to this posting.]
Second, the timing of this ad indicates a couple of things. As noted elsewhere, Kilgore’s campaign never claimed to win the debate in their initial spin. After examining the post-debate accounts by MSM that called the debate no better than a draw for Kilgore and several mentions that Kaine won, the Kilgore campaign must have sensed it was time to unload a big gun. Additionally, you can be certain that both campaigns of the only competitive race in the nation have rolling track polls now-especially following the one and only debate-clearly Kilgore found two things-he was slipping with three kinds of voters-rural, undecided, and self described conservative- and a lack of enthusiasm from his base. If I were in their shoes, I’d go ahead and fire my best shot this early as well.
Third, you can be assured that Kaine’s staff knew this was coming. If you have seen any of their rapid response stuff from the last debate on their blog-their research department knows everytime Kilgore sneezed on a salad bar, and everytime Kaine has said something even obliquely damaging to his race. One evidence was the quick turnaround with the ad you cited from last summer. I’d say give it at least 24-36 hours and then start looking for the response ad…which leads me to four…
Fourth, the mere logistics of getting tape of a response ad to all every station in every market would take at least a day to get to every market in VA. If you add in cuts and edits and perhaps additional taping to specifically address these charges, it could push the time out to anywhere between 24 and 48 hours before the tape is at the station and popped into rotation. It’s just the way modern paid media works.
Fifth, Kaine was quick to slot the ad saying Kilgore had a sugardaddy into rotation (probably already in the can before this and moved up in rotation (after being tipped off by a friendly in some tv station) today. Additionally, the Kaine people have answered every attack, but there has always been some lag time. The response will be considerably less than the four weeks Kerry allowed the Swift Boat attacks, and less than 4 days, in my estimation.
Sixth, you mention Kaine going to “Christian” rather than “Roman Catholic.” In the ad you cite, Kaine begins, “As a Christian missionary…” The ad ran last June.
Okay that’s tactical. Strategery…
This will fire up the base of both sides as long as Kaine responds quickly (count on it, given past performance) and given the general sense of Republicans drifting away from the tops of their party, starting with Bush and magnified in Kilgore. Even non-activist conservatives bring up Kilgore’s “sissy” and/or “effeminate” appearance, speech, et al. The fact that Kilgore drops a bomb like these ads, unprovoked, to fire up his base and voters that would normally be any Republican candidate’s, is an indication that his campaign has realized that they’re behind and slipping. Unanswered, they could well turn the race. However, given the Kaine campaign’s quick retorts earlier in the year and lately (see gas tax response ad), I’d suppose these will get lost in a slew of counter fire and the ultimate effect will be a general disgust by voters driving down turnout, firing up the base, and between the air war an extra 2-3 points for Potts as a protest against both (Potts ends with 6-8%).
On the response suggestions you have, I’d say you’re onto something with painting Kilgore as anti-Christian, but it simply won’t fly-too much explanation, too much time for an ad (JoeBob and Mrs. JoeBob and Malcolm and Caroline will click it to the game or Desperate Housewives or The Price Is Right or -fill in the blank-). Kilgore has most likely never said or done anything so damning in this vein.
The right-wing nut bag suggestion-way too long, marketing 101. Yeah, I’ve seen them at BBQs and in bars (I don’t make many dinner parties…), but too much and as much as they bore me, you can be sure any voter would click in the first five seconds.
The Kilgore as a mansy-pansy has merit, as even Repubs are saying the same thing, but a few things–one is you risk some base, calling a gay man gay isn’t nearly as effective as people whispering among themselves that he is gay (the conspiratorial whispers among his base must be devastating), and, ultimately, I just doubt Kaine would go that far over the top.
Finally, the change the subject idea I think is the best-an ad that says “While Jerry Kilgore was charged with keeping Virginia prisoners in jail X number of murderers escaped…”-is there a Horton among those escapees? A good blend of the two would be a revamped version of the internet ad that discusses the 300% increase in escapes from Virginia prisons under Kilgore’s watch–it underscores Kilgore’s mansy-pansy in a visual, audible, and mental way (“Just the other day, we went through an entire day without an escape. It was a positive day for the Department of Corrections,” said a “curious” looking Kilgore…)
Basically, Kilgore is accusing Kaine of not wanting to apply the death penalty, but Kilgore could not keep murders from escaping to our neighborhoods and homes when charged with the task. Letting murderers and felons escape from prison under his watch seems at least as damaging, if not more, than simply representing someone on an appeal. It all reinforces the “weak” image of Kilgore while Kaine spent his formative years with a father whose trade was shaping steel with his hands.
In any event, we know this is a wedge issue attack, and it will be very effective with his base and many others. Still, it is not biggest issue affecting poeple. What remains to be seen is if there is an effective and vigorous response by Kaine and whose base it fires up more (no/weak/ineffective response is a Kilgore advantage; strong response is a win for Kaine with base and swing voters-it really is a disgusting attack with only the barest hints of truth in it. But, hey, Scott Howell, you strike again, right? Black hands, swift boats, cartoons, and all else; you’re good at what you do these days, hat tip on such a dishonorable, dishonest, and despicable, yet effective hit job. Course, that’s why they pay you the big bucks…
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