Waldo Jaquith

Kaine gaining, and fast.

Rasmussen has released their latest Kaine/Kilgore poll, and it’s looking mighty bad for Mr. Kilgore. Writes Rasmussen:

The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll finds Republican Jerry Kilgore leading Democrat Tim Kaine by just three percentage points. In August, Kilgore had a six point lead.

Kilgore 43%, Kaine 40%, “Other” (Potts): 5%. Their poll last month had “other” at 5%, Kilgore at 45%, and Kaine at 39%, so this represents a drop for Kilgore and a rise for Kaine. (All within the margin of error, of course, making all of this academic, at best.)

The redacted portion below is wrong — I foolishly skipped a whole paragraph of Rasmussen’s press release. Thanks to Chad Dotson for pointing it out.

Again, by not including Potts, they’re suppressing his numbers. There are thousands of people in this state who know nothing about the race, nothing about Kaine, and nothing about Kilgore, but they do like that Potts guy. The man’s going to be on the ballot. Just include him. Of course, we now know that Potts is siphoning votes off of Kilgore, which is going to drop Kilgore by ~4% from where we’re seeing him in this poll.

That leaves us at Kaine 44%, Kilgore 39%, Potts 9%.

My favorite part of Rasmussen’s poll is this:

Kaine is viewed as liberal by 33% and conservative by 21%. Kilgore is seen as conservative by 57% and liberal by 10%.

Two guys with short names that start with “K.” People just aren’t paying attention, and can’t tell the difference. I’ll be curious to see what becomes of twice as many people calling Kaine “conservative” as those who call Kilgore “liberal.”


7 Comments

I’ve yet to understand how Republicans (and I am one) can say that Potts will take votes away from Kaine with a straight face. Republicans who feel disenfranchised by the hard-right turn the party has made in recent years will vote for Potts. I have never met a Democrat who would choose Potts over Kaine. In a two-man race, Kilgore might win. With Potts in the mix, this is Kaine’s race to lose.

Posted by Mitch Cumstein on 16 September 2005 @ 1pm

I think you’ve missed something, Waldo. Rasmussen’s report did poll on Potts and what it showed is that he took votes away from each candidate equally:

When respondents are asked about a choice between Kilgore, Kaine, and Russell Potts, Kilgore retains a 3-point lead, 43% to 40%. Potts, a Republican running as an Independent, earns 5% of the vote and 2% say they will vote for someone else.

Posted by Chad on 16 September 2005 @ 2pm

Chad’s right: says right in the article that they polled on Potts for the first time. But then, it’s kind of funny you accusing people of “missing something” Chad, when you simply blackedout any unfortunately facts (like the jump in Kaine’s numbers and the drop in Kilgores from last poll) from your account of the poll.

Same as you’ll link to Jim Bacon when he criticizes Kaine, but not when he criticizes Kilgore: not even to respond to what he says! Jim would never do something like that because he cares about Virginia and conservative values and real debate more than hooking up his cart to the local political machine and cheerleading. That’s why Jim’s such a fine guy and interesting blogger.

Posted by Jimmy on 16 September 2005 @ 2pm

Quite right, Chad — I don’t know how I overlooked that. I’m on the go right now, but I’ll correct accordingly when I get back home.

Posted by Waldo Jaquith on 16 September 2005 @ 4pm

The democrats in Virgina have nominated another all white ticket to inspire those disillusioned by the aftermath of Katrina. I can’t wait to cast my vote. (laugh) Russ Potts makes Kaine look like a self serving,poll driven,politician too careful to actually tell the truth or stand up for a conviction.

Posted by trevor wells on 16 September 2005 @ 7pm

Thanks for the attack, Jimmy! Much appreciated.

If you don’t like the way I run my blog, you are cordially invited never to read it again. I’m sure we’ll do just fine without you.

But let’s get something straight: I’m a conservative and a Republican. I want to see Jerry Kilgore elected in November. I have criticized him occasionally, but let’s be honest, I’m not going to go out of my way to hurt him. A lot of people read what I write, and I have no interest in hurting the campaign of any candidate that I support.

If you want unbiased commentary, you are probably better off staying away from a site where the biases are advertised in the name of the blog: “Commonwealth Conservative.” I have criticized conservatives and Republicans — Tom DeLay and President Bush in the last week, for example — but I’m also supportive of the Republican Party. No one who reads my blog should be surprised that I support the GOP ticket.

I suppose that, in comparison to Jim, I’m not “a fine guy and an interesting blogger” in your estimation. Forgive me if I don’t lose sleep over that.

However, I anxiously await your attack on Waldo for not trumpeting all the good news for the Kilgore campaign over the last few months. Or is Waldo not interested in real debate, either?

Of course you won’t attack Waldo. He supports his candidates, and he doesn’t highlight every bit of good news for the opposition. That’s the beauty of the blogosphere — there are any number of varying views out there.

Sheesh. I’ve wasted too much time on you already.

Posted by Chad on 16 September 2005 @ 9pm

It’s not a surprise that you support the GOP ticket, but that you’ll do so regardless of the principles that should underlie WHY you support them. You make arguments that assume that you care about good logic, honest facts, and particular conservative values. But all those are secondary. You’ve criticized Bush for spending like a drunken sailor… but Kilgore’s endless spending promises? His indefensible dodge on abortion (when the rest of the ticket _isn’t_ dodging, and Kilgore’s stuck his nose into plenty of issues where there isn’t even a hypothetical chance of him being able to do anything about it)?

You can’t pretend to get all bent out of shape about principle, and then toss it out when politically necessary.

Posted by Jimmy on 17 September 2005 @ 10am